Yugoslav Peace Plan Approved - What Now?

US President Bill Clinton and other Western leaders expressed "cautious optimism" over Belgrade's decision. NATO leaders think Milosevic must first fulfill "all his obligations," and only then will the air strikes be stopped. The West came to this conclusion, quite uncomfortable for the current Belgrade regime at the Rembouillet talks, for at that time the Yugoslav delegation first agreed to sign the final document but then, after the latter was also accepted by the Kosovo Albanians, disavowed its commitments. Now Washington and Brussels no longer believe Belgrade and demand that it back its words with deeds.

What is the difference between the G-8 peace plan, accepted by Milosevic after 11 weeks of devastating bombings that ruined his country and the conditions offered him at Rembouillet? By all accounts, none. For the West dropped at the last stage of the Rembouillet talks its demand for a referendum after a transition period, which would determine the political future and, in fact, independence of Kosovo. Belgrade only managed to win two concessions: first, that international peacekeepers to be moved into Kosovo will be able to reach that area from Albania, Macedonia or by air, but not through Yugoslav territory. This in fact eliminates the danger of NATO occupation of all Yugoslavia. Secondly, the Russian military contingent in Kosovo will not be subordinated to the unified command of other peacekeepers. According to Russian special presidential envoy in the Balkans Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Russian peacekeeping forces will only recognize UN supremacy. And since they are most likely to be in charge of a certain "zone of responsibility," this means that this part of Kosovo will remain under Serb control (in the hands or, more precisely, the bayonets of their Russian allies). There is no comprehensive peace agreement as yet, only general principles of a settlement have been approved. But, as the French say, the devil lurks in the details. It is not yet clear which part of Kosovo will be controlled by the Russian peacekeepers. This is very important, for the return of Albanian refugees to this area looks quite improbable.

The Western media already name specific units of the US, British, and French armies to be sent to Kosovo, while commander of the NATO European Rapid Deployment Force, British Lt. General Sir Michael Jackson has said he will move his headquarters from Skopje to Pristina "as fast as possible."

In this situation, NATO can celebrate a victory. Life has dispelled the skeptical fear that Belgrade would never be forced to accept Western conditions by air strikes alone. However, from a certain angle, this victory is tantamount to failure, for the image of NATO in many countries, including Ukraine, has been greatly tarnished. Russia has also won in a way, for the West has recognized its special role in settling the conflict. The loser is Slobodan Milosevic: now that the G-8 plan is approved, he only has slight concessions, compared to the Rembouillet document (which he could, incidentally, have signed even in that Parisian suburb) to his credit, and to his debit he has bombed-out military (and non-military) factories, bridges, roads, buildings, along with thousands of dead soldiers and civilians. And all these losses have proved to be unjustified in the final analysis. And he is likely to bear the responsibility for it. Not by accident has Milosevic's eternal opponent Vuk Draskovic already announced that the approval of the G-8 plan by Parliament is a great day for Yugoslavia, which will not only establish peace but also bring about radical changes in the country's political life.