Fed up to the gills with elections

TOTALLY UNPREPARED

Although the parliamentary election campaign has begun in Ukraine, political parties and voters are equally unprepared for it. This is the conclusion of experts at the Razumkov Center, who submitted their analytical report to the roundtable “Political Parties of Ukraine at the Start of the 2006 Election Campaign.”

It turns out that less than one- third of Ukrainian citizens know that the majority electoral system is history and that they will now have to vote only for parties and party blocs. Experts also assessed the electoral resources of political parties, with the aid of a five-point scale. None received five points. Interestingly, the experts gave the same number of points to the Party of the Regions as to the People’s Union “Our Ukraine” (NSNU): 3.76, the highest result. As for citizens’ ideological and political preferences, the national democratic trend is the most popular (13.8 percent of respondents); those who support union with Russia placed second (12.8 percent). Sociological surveys were held on Oct. 6-12 and Nov. 3-13, 2005, in all regions of Ukraine. A total of 2,007 respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed. The margin of error does not exceed 2.3 percent.

The good news for the “lightweight” parties is that every 10th respondent does not see a political trend conforming to his/her persuasions; 35.2 percent know nothing about political trends. The only question is how to conquer this electorate’s “no man’s land” and with what.

MOTIVES

There is a stereotype among politicians and experts that says voters mostly favor a dazzling leader. This is not entirely true, as it turned out; 22.1 percent of respondents stated that conformity to party ideology and their own views are the decisive factor in their choice; 20.1 percent believe that a given party or bloc’s previous activities are important. A party leader’s charms come third. Citizens’ choices proved remarkably rational, and a motive, such as interesting advertising, turned up last on the list. Interestingly enough, the higher the living standard (self-assessed) the higher the sympathy factor with regard to a party leader.

The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the People’s Party are staking on their leader’s personality, and this factor is also important for the Socialist Party and Our Ukraine.

The ideological index is most important for the Communist Party, the Socialist Party, Progressive Socialist Party, and Our Ukraine. The latter may be called a surprise, considering this party’s established status as nonideological.

For the Party of the Regions the most important factor is its previous activities. This may be attributed to the activities of its leader Viktor Yanukovych as prime minister of Ukraine.

PESSIMISM

A mere 17.6 percent of respondents believe that the situation in Ukraine will improve after the elections; 10.4 percent say it will get worse; 40.2 percent think the situation will not change.

Citizens are even more pessimistic about their own prospects. Only 15.9 percent believe that their life will be better after the elections; 52.3 percent are convinced that it will be the other way around. Residents in western Ukraine are the most optimistic (23.9 percent), compared to 17.7 percent in the central part, 10.3 percent in the south, and 12.1 percent in the east.

The most pessimistic forecasts are made by people living in the central (58.1 percent) and eastern (54.1) regions. The south is close behind them (47.5). In western Ukraine 43.2 percent of respondents agree that life will get worse after the elections.

ADMINISTRATIVE RESOURCE

Another surprise is that most respondents (78 percent) believe that dirty technologies will be used in one way or another during the parliamentary elections. Only 9.5 percent feel sure that the elections will be fair. Thirty-seven percent predict that the elections will be “mostly democratic, with a slight use of the administrative resource.” At the same time, one-third of respondents (34.8 percent) assume that the elections will register large-scale exploitation of the administrative resource.

Experts adamantly disagree with these electoral moods. First, they say that you have to know how to apply the administrative resource. The new government is not strong enough, especially after the political crisis in September and the rift in the Orange team. The degree to which Yushchenko can control this country is lower by one order compared to the Kuchma period, analysts point out.

Second, the new political system is not monolithic. Third, Yushchenko and the people he appointed to various posts are not acceptable to the Ukrainian bureaucracy. However, an entirely different situation may be observed in the course of local elections. There the local bureaucracy will attempt to come to power or retain it.

Finally, use of the administrative resource may be regarded by many people representing the new government as contrary to their own political convictions. This time the factor of international control over the elections will also play a more important role.

Whichever way you look at it, the 2006 elections will be more democratic than all the elections held under Kuchma, experts believe.

TIME TO MAKE A DEAL?

The survey results show that seven political forces can actually hurdle the 3 percent qualification barrier: Party of the Regions (17.5 percent); Our Ukraine (13.5), BYuT (12.4), CPU (5.8), SPU (5.6), Lytvyn’s Popular Bloc (3.3), with the Progressive Socialists remaining in the risk area.

The center’s experts predict that the Party of the Regions will get 129 seats in the next parliament; Our Ukraine, 97; BYuT, 94; CPU, 42; SPU, 41; Lytvyn’s Popular Bloc, 28; PSP, 19.

There is, however, the possibility of one of two more campaign contenders entering the Verkhovna Rada. This may be helped indirectly by the campaign’s false start. “Foreigners are flabbergasted when I tell them that our parliamentary elections last four months. We may well over-feed the electorate with our party promotional cud and this may result in lower electoral activity. As it is, we already have enough grounds for feeling depressed,” says Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta Center of Applied Political Research.

Another obvious thing is that none of the political forces that have a chance to obtain seats in the Verkhovna Rada will be able single-handedly to form a parliamentary majority; hence the need to make deals. Therefore, the current election campaign is likely to feature double standards. “It’s important to quarrel in such a way as not to have a total falling-out; many will fight against Yanukovych while communicating with him,” says Vadym Karasiov, director of the Institute for Global Strategies.

Karasiov also believes that Tymoshenko is the only one that can stop Yanukovych. “But if Tymoshenko stops Yanukovych, who will stop Tymoshenko?” this expert wonders. This question remains unanswered.

Political scientist Volodymyr Malynkovych believes that neither Yanukovych, nor Tymoshenko will become the next prime minister because both are “odious personalities. Most likely the next head of government will be a technical, compromise figure, someone like Yuriy Yekhanurov. Malynkovych also shared his favorite thesis about an orange-blue coalition allegedly capable of uniting Ukraine: “In fact, we have two coalitions; one is orange-pink, it has already existed and failed; it will be rather complicated to reprise it; the second one is orange-blue, and I think this is the best prospect for Ukraine.”

It is not a fact, however, that the election winner will form the government. “The blocs that collect fewer votes may form their own coalition,” says Fesenko.

Political scientist Oles Doniy predicts another political crisis after the elections, because in Ukraine “there is the Tymoshenko factor,” which may destroy all the previous agreements.

Experts say that none of the practical options of the future parliament-cabinet coalition can be regarded as optimal.