NBU has Conceded Everything,

All thanks to the IMF, which asked the Cabinet of Ministers and the National Bank (NBU) to speed up, at last, full liberalization in Ukraine. Which they are actually doing. The latest is that the NBU has lifted all restrictions on establishing exchange rates resulting from commercial banks' deals on both the cash and non-cash markets. This is to determine the hryvnia's market price. In principle, as market operators claim, it has already been identified as about Hr 3.93-3.97 per US dollar (on April 14, for example, the tender started with Hr 3.94 per $1). And since this price of the national currency has been stable at the exchange bank for three weeks running, we can say in principle that it "has achieved equilibrium."

However, there is still a gentleman, the chief of hard-currency operations at the West-Ukrainian Commercial Bank Ihor Havryliak, who told Interfax-Ukrayina he did not rule out some devaluation of the hryvnia rate on the cash market (let us recall that Hr 4.60 per $1 is the upper limit of the exchange corridor the NBU promised to hold until year's end).

On the other hand, we may now logically expect the cash market (where the exchange rate is formed, as it were, by itself without administrative restrictions) to upstage what is locally known as "black" money. The National Bank, of course, promises to wipe out the latter in general and for good. And we, as law-abiding citizens of our state, should believe this and buy dollars and marks only as the exception in exchange kiosks. These will, by the way, have the same rate as on the black market, for the NBU has also lifted the 10% margin limit and allowed the cash rate  to change in the course of one day.

This is the way we, so liberalized and free in our controversial currency policy, have again come to a solemn moment and portentous event, namely, asking the money markets for more. The Presidential Administration, in the words of presidential aide Valery Lytvytsky, is already speaking of "good prospects" for receiving an installment of over $70 million in April 20-30. In addition, Ukraine also hopes to get $40 million from the World Bank to restructure the coal industry. But our wildest dream is a loan accounting for 35% of Ukraine's annual IMF quota. That is Ukraine (I mean a dozen or so people who consider themselves empowered to make decide things for everyone without asking anyone's opinion) is angling for another $672 million loan. Very soon, in about a week, a new IMF mission will be visiting Kyiv, and the Ukrainian side intends to discuss such prospects with it.

PS: In the official (i.e., most conservative) estimate, Ukraine's foreign debt is about $11.3 BILLION. Before this year's end alone, we will have to pay almost $700 million as part of foreign payments (we have already paid $480 million). The latest financial aid (the IMF loan installment and the World Bank loan) has come to $300 million.