New flu expected in late January
Scientists believe the world could soon find itself in the grip of a pandemic. The gripp.ru site forecasts that in Russia alone 120 million will be infected, 60 million fall ill, 500,000 hospitalized, and 200,000 will die. And this great number will be claimed by none other than the virus of a flu the epidemic of which breaks out on this scale once in twenty or thirty years. And if we remember that the A virus has been roaming the world for 30 years on end, they think there are ample grounds to believe that the flu disaster will occur in the next few years.
Fortunately, the reasoning of Ukrainian researchers is not so pessimistic. The Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases of the Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine is convinced that these forecasts are nothing but a theory that is unlikely to prove true. Pandemics occurred only when humanity was unaware of antibiotics and anti-flu vaccines. But now, when the world is full of powerful influenza control centers which collect all information on the recorded viruses and know at the end of a given flu season what is in store for the next year, this is simply impossible. These centers keep pharmacists informed about the particular features of the oncoming influenza so that they could develop a vaccine suitable to this season. As few as ten years ago, the composition of the medicine that produced human antibodies used to change once in five years. So, given the variability of a virus, the probability of the coincidence of epidemic and vaccinal strains was extremely low. As vaccinations were ineffective, the majority did not believe that the flu could be averted by means of an injection. Although doctors do not give a hundred-percent guarantee even now, they still claim that in 2000- 2001 Ukraine spent UAH 11.374 billion on vaccination and thus managed to forestall 365,594 illnesses that could have incurred a loss of UAH 57,764,000. A simple mathematical calculation shows that our health care authorities thus saved a little over UAH 46 million, still losing 395 million because one patient costs the state an average 158 hryvnias. Yet, as Ukrainian Influenza Center laboratory chief Alla Myronenko states, an illness can sometimes cost 1000 hryvnias if a complication is to be treated at an inpatient hospital. This particularly applies to aged and chronically-ill individuals. For example, there was an instance last year when the Szechwan virus led to encephalitis and, accordingly, the necessity of buying medicines for 2000 hryvnias.
Simultaneously, far from all can even afford the luxury of an inoculation which can avert further major family expenditures. It costs an average 40 hryvnias, a third of an ordinary pension. Every year the Ministry of Public Health advises oblast administration heads to raise local budgetary funds to buy vaccines and administer free vaccinations to the less fortunate. The latter mainly comprise retirement-home and orphanage residents. Although the number of those subject to free vaccination varies from region to region, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Lviv, and Ternopil oblasts always rank first. Statistics show it is usually industrial enterprises and large companies that lose no time vaccinating their employees. Out of all the vaccinations administered in 2001, only 10% were done at the personal expense of individuals and 2% at that of sponsors. Ms. Myronenko claims the vaccines now being used are 90% effective and cause no side effects. A vaccination was recently given even to some bronchial asthma patients — naturally, under the supervision of an allergist. The only contraindication of a vaccination is rejection of the chicken albumen, which occurs extremely rarely in comparison with other types of allergies.
The reason why doctors are so actively propagating vaccinations is that Ukraine is likely to be visited this winter by the B/Hong Kong virus fraught with such complications as pneumonia, ear inflammation, and meningitis. Moreover, it is new for Ukrainians, for we have only managed to adjust to A virus varieties and have not developed immunity to B/Hong Kong... Luckily, doctors deny the already common rumor that Ukraine faces a pandemic similar to one that took the toll of a third of the population of Hong Kong in the 1960s. They forecast instead that the B/Hong Kong virus will have its golden days in Ukraine in late January-early February, that is, after the school winter vacations. They also assume that the epidemic will start, as usual, in the eastern regions because the virus traditionally comes to us from Russia.
