Warning signs

Talking about the state of the Ukrainian economy, Prime Minister Azarov quoted Stalin’s famous phrase: “Life became better, life became more cheerful.” Maybe someone really cheered up with Viktor Yanukovych and Mykola Azarov, but it was definitely not the opposition. Information has surfaced about yet another Tymoshenko ally being arrested and imprisoned.

The Interpol website recently published the name of the Ex-Minister of the Economy Bohdan Danylyshyn on the list of wanted persons. However, Ukrainian journalists managed to find the fugitive before the police. In a telephone interview for Kyiv Post Danylyshyn said that he would return to Ukraine, and at present he was undergoing medical treatment, but did not say where. Earlier versions were put forward that Danylyshyn was hiding in Germany, possibly in Cologne. They even said that he would seek asylum in this country.

As The Day already wrote, the former economy minister is accused of causing the state losses amounting to 4.5 million hryvnias. Moreover, he is suspected of illegal fuel purchases for the army in 2008-09, increasing the losses by 14 million hryvnias.

The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc called it political repression. They are now waiting for the government to reach Turchynov. No one seems to doubt the fact that this will happen eventually. Information has already appeared that he is about to be summoned for questioning to the Prosecutor General. Turchynov himself heretofore declared his readiness to respond for any of his actions in government.

Will Turchynov be arrested? When and how will the Constitution be changed? Will the current Verkhovna Rada stay until 2015? We discussed these and other questions with political expert Viktor NEBOZHENKO.

Mr. Nebozhenko, there is an opinion that they are looking for Danylyshyn to reach out to Turchynov. Is everything really reduced to the persona of Turchynov? Are these cases not related? Are Danylyshyn and Turchynov on their own?

“Turchynov can’t be on his own. His cynical formula is everything comes from God, everything comes from me. I do not think that Danylyshyn could do anything without Turchynov. Another thing is that the charges brought against Danylyshyn look benign and ridiculous for any average official — past, present or future. Such violations occur in our country every minute. Danylyshyn is accused of what he could not know, of what has been a common practice for today’s Donetsk authorities, for Yushchenko’s and Kuchma’s governments. Due to this, the Ukrainian bureaucracy became richer than the Ukrainian bourgeoisie. That is the piquancy of the situation.”

What is your prediction, will they arrest Turchynov or not?

“Sometime before the New Year. They have not gathered enough material yet. They need Danylyshyn to give testimony. Generally, of course, tormenting a genuine professional scientist (Danylyshyn is an academic of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. — Author), who became part of the government by sheer accident, is wrong. I do not justify his actions, but he is so unlike the enemy of the Ukrainian people, that even Azarov will not be credited. They will rather try to get Turchynov.

“And since we deal with two believers — one is Yanukovych, another is Turchynov, the faithful officials will likely bring Turchynov’s head to Yanukovych for Christmas on a silver platter.”

Maybe they will also bring him new authorities on a silver platter. These changes to the Constitution have been long discussed, but recently in an interview for Chinese journalists, Yanukovych clearly stated that he was a proponent of the Constitution of 1996. Here’s a direct quote: “I have repeatedly said that the Constitution adopted in 1996 corresponds to international standards. And everyone acknowledges this.”

“There are a few problems. From the point of view of deforming Ukrainian democracy all this can be done hastily in three months — returning the Constitution of 1996, using the Yanukovych’s resources and the complete confusion of the opposition.

“But there is another issue. If Yanukovych returns to Kuchma-level power, he must first remember what happened in 2002 (the death of Gongadze and the tape scandal). The elites immediately begin to search for ways to fight the totalitarian regime. The second thing is that then, parliament is no longer so important, and feels uncomfortable about it. They are not stupid people.

“Thirdly, he will not need the Party of Regions. His powers will allow him to run the country without relying on publicity. He is his own boss and leader. And he will not need a large number of people to help him in this regard.”

By the way, many political experts point out that the oligarchs can resist canceling the political reform.

“The fact is that we should expect some intrigue, I can assure you. Look at the faces of the ten richest people of Ukraine. They are spending day and night in negotiations: ‘What shall we do with him?’

“There is another thing. In parliament, many people openly state that they do not want to return to the ‘minion principle.’ The head of the Presidential Administration is nothing else but a vice-president. They do not want to see the emergence of a vice-president. No matter who it is — Medvedchuk, Liovochkin or someone else.”

You must have noticed that in Germany Liovochkin headed the delegation — violating protocol — ahead of Foreign Minister Hryshchenko, although he is just chief of staff of the president.

“This is already the start of the constitutional reform. An institution, which is not in the Constitution, is placed above the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Actually, this whole trip was of formal character.

“I think that no visit by its significance will exceed the trip to Kharkiv. Yanukovych, in the first months of his presidency, laid out all the trumps. Now the other great world powers have nothing to talk about with Yanukovych — it is easier to talk to Putin.”

About ten days ago, the opposition spread the information that they are going to extend the authority of the current parliament until 2015. At first, this seemed to be pure fiction. But nobody from the Party of Regions confirmed or denied this information. Now this story no longer seems to be so mythical. Do you think MPs will accept this “bribe”?

“They will take it, but... I also discussed this problem with them. As a non-deputy I told them: ‘Folks, a fulfilled request is not a good turn.’ This is an old principle of cynical politics. There is no guarantee that Yanukovych will not seize any pretext, such as the lack of toilet paper in the Verkhovna Rada, to dissolve them. After receiving great power, why would he keep the witnesses of the crime? This does not comply with the theory of criminology. I told them this: ‘Guys, you will be dissolved on the first occasion.’ They respond: ‘But we will not provide the occasion.’ And how won’t they provide an occasion? Say, they won’t come in time for a meeting at 6 a.m. Here’s an occasion. Disobedience. Dissolve them immediately. That’s it.”

However, the government’s polls are falling. In the most recent ones, the Party of Regions would be supported by 27.6 percent of the voters versus 41.5 percent in May. The level of total support for the actions of Viktor Yanukovych decreased from 39.7 percent in May to 22.5 percent in August; Mykola Azarov’s rating dropped by half — from 31.7 percent to 16.9 percent. Is this a normal process or it is somehow related to household running costs and buckwheat?

“It is not connected with results, it is a normal process. It’s not so big a deal. They have not found their rhythm yet. The country recovered from the presidential elections — the organism was sick and had electoral fever. The degree of political life was artificially inflated, and now it falls to its default states. But now in-depth factors are included: assessment, disputes, frustration, fatigue, etc.”

The official start of the political season was September 7. Tymoshenko convened everyone to a meeting near the Verkhovna Rada. Did you feel any protest sentiments in society?

“No. This is a very important moment in political psychology. There is certain indifference. But this indifference concerns both the opposition and the government. That is the problem. Yes, the opposition suffers that it cannot, as before, gather 100 thousand people on any occasion. But this is an undulating process. The reason is not in higher prices for buckwheat, or, perhaps, in flashes in the sun or in the breath of a spring breeze. Suddenly people are beginning to respond to political impulses in a more acute way.

“At present there is a dampening period for political activity in general. No Maidan is currently possible, but this all is temporary.”

When will the new wave begin?

“When talks in the kitchen start, when intellectuals start gathering, when journalists start to disappear, when they start imprisoning people who have no relation to politics at all. Finally, when jokes about today’s government start emerging. This will be a warning sign.”