"Well-informed optimists" see the end of a crisis, beginning of a disaster 

If not today, then tomorrow the present currency band will receive an "ex" prefix. The exchange rate
of Hr 3.37 to USD 1 at last Friday's auction of the Interbank Currency Exchange left thirteen kopecks to the upper limit of the currency band.

All efforts taken by the government - from lulling the population, to banning the fall in the exchange rate, and further (as if squeezing out the last drop) administering a conditionally voluntary conversion of government bonds - not only proved to be useless but also prolonged the agony of the disaster. And the supposedly encouraging words of Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko "having presentiments that certain positive indices characterizing stabilization of the situation were close at hand" were none other than abstract thinking, not intuition.

Before the death of the new currency band, the National Bank of Ukraine lost about Hr 200 million through the Ministry of Finance in repaying 1997 middle-term governmental bonds which had not been exchanged for conversion bonds. What is interesting is that the NBU "persuasively asked" the commercial banks (which had obtained those funds) to transfer them to NBU depository accounts or reinvest them in other government liabilities. This was probably the last straw, as non-residents began complaining that it was impossible (due to the NBU) to convert hryvnia receipts from those bonds, and dishonoring their obligations was like "changing the rules of the game". And the government responded quietly through Reiffeisenbank Treasury Head Serhiy Monyukha as he spoke to Interfax-Ukraine: "The resolution was not signed by Viktor Yushchenko, therefore the National Bank of Ukraine is not really bound to fulfill its provisions since it is an independent (even from the Cabinet) governmental body". In any case, the National Bank is trying hard, and especially after wasting reserve funds on the artificial support of the hryvnia, has begun seeking money through the well-known habit of applying a tourniquet to stop the flow of their spending habit. The first step obligates banks to submit, by the end of the current week, "full and complete information" on foreign currency, if available, in the accounts of some enterprises. The second step instructs the same commercial banks, "upon the requests of certain enterprises and according to their accounting documents," to unconditionally withdraw funds from their main accounts. And so the funeral procession becomes organized: banks are the first to go, followed by national manufacturers. The obituaries are practically foreseen. In the beginning Mr. Yushchenko would say something about the crisis and general control over the introduction of a new currency band. Then Finance Minister Igor Mityukov (brushing away a tear) would say some words about the necessity of a floating rate. After that, they would begin to look for scapegoats. Kuchma would mention the lack of a parliamentary majority. The Premier would promise to save the hryvnia, showering the budget with collected taxes and repaid debts. Incidentally, sometimes there is the strong desire to be a government responsible for nothing, an alienated subject. The crisis is raging, industrial and small banks have already bought black funeral shoes made in Turkey, the black market exchange rate is Hr 4.50 to USD 1, a box of Ariel detergent costs Hr 6, people's tempers are flaring and wages are not paid, meanwhile the prime minister is promising to punish severely those banks playing on the government bonds market, as though he does not know that no one has been playing on this market for the fourth week in a row. However, in the search for explanations, the palm will surely be carried off by Minister of Economics Vasyl Rohovy. Eureka! He has found what caused the crisis. And the simple answer is that reforms took a wrong turn. Sorry, what reforms? And then what wrong turn? In response they would say seriously, "It is high time to change the function of the government and its role in commercial activity, which was reflected in the government's package of anti-crisis measures". Well, that clears up everything: this "anti-crisis package" is the Cabinet's business-plan of sorts, a kind of presentation of its commercial activity. Unfortunately, the governments products would be paid for by a mandatory regular customer - the tax payer. Incidentally, the same ministry made a joke about the September 7.5% inflation rate. And all that, according to Mr. Kuchma, is "the most professional government we have ever seen". Maybe that is why we face not an ordinary crisis, but a "professional one" - deep and serious.

APROPOS

From his Zhytomyr constituency, former Head of the State Property Fund Yury Yekhanurov commented on the government's anti-crisis measures. He told The Day correspondent Valery Kostyukevich that they have raised rather heated disputes, not all of which have received positive reactions from commercial bank officers, government officials, deputies and, most important, the people, entrepreneurs and enterprises. In particular, the People's Deputy dislikes the inconsistency shining through authorities' ideas, specifically when decisions are made and then revoked. An example is the instatement of the obligatory sale of 75% of foreign currency, which was promptly reduced to 50%. Yekhanurov commented on the situation as "creating a disturbance to the people, raising a bit of commotion and nothing else. Secondly, they said the conversion of government bonds in banks would be voluntary, but then suddenly it was made obligatory. For several days commercial banks were subject to a storm of activity, and then after the President's speech, they announced that it would be voluntary."

According to the People's Deputy, "the government has no shared attitude even to those things that have already been adopted". As a former governmental official, he is also surprised by the fact that the documents signed by the President or government are disputed by some departments.