“The World Needs an Ecological Security Council”

Sciences of Ukraine recently hosted a joint meeting of the Academy’s departments of chemistry and general biology. Scientists spoke about global warming and darkening, which many consider nothing more than a myth, sustainable development, and waste disposal. As Academician Dmytro Hrodzynsky cautioned in his speech, some crops and plants may soon become extinct, and a revision of the world’s current division into zones may become necessary. As a consequence of increasing development, our planet may also experience a lack of sunlight.

In an interview with The Day, Prof. HRODZYNSKY focused on the effect of these global processes on Ukraine and ways to solve climate problems.

FORESTS WILL SAVE EARTH

“Global warming is being discussed not just by environmentalists but also economists and even politicians. Do you think the impact of this phenomenon has been deliberately exaggerated in recent years?”

“Undoubtedly, like all the global problems that humankind is facing, global warming is being exaggerated. This distortion is aimed at drawing the attention of as many people as possible. From this angle, exaggeration may be somewhat justified. Look at the sensational claim of scientists that the world’s largest cities — London, Washington, Saint Petersburg, Rome, and Paris — are going to be submerged. Clearly, this is hyperbole. At the same time, if the polar icecaps continue to melt at their present rate, the level of the oceans will definitely rise very significantly. But the point is humanity possesses powerful technologies to forestall such dramatic consequences.

“There are a number of signs confirming global warming. For example, our planet is now showing a rise in temperature coupled with an increased concentration of greenhouse gases. This phenomenon is fundamentally simple: there was energy equilibrium among the planets before man began his furious technological activity. Sunrays would reach the earth, reflect off it, and disappear into space. This established a balance: the earth would receive and give back the same amount of energy. This balance resulted in a certain set of climatic conditions and determined the directions of winds and sea currents. When humans began consuming too much fuel, the atmosphere showed a growing concentration of carbon dioxide. It became more difficult for infrared rays to radiate into outer space; they are reflected and come back to earth. The energy balance is thus disturbed with every passing year, resulting in global warming. We can see the icecaps melting and the permafrost boundary shifting further north. Warming is also activating the decay of organic matter preserved in the permafrost. So the earth is forced to ‘exhale’ more carbon dioxide.”

“What can hold back these processes? Can the Kyoto Protocol, which is aimed at reducing industrial emissions into the air, improve things?”

“Of course, the Kyoto Protocol can have an effect. But industrial emissions are not the only cause of the increase in greenhouse gases. Another very important instrument for saving the earth, in addition to the Kyoto Protocol, is building up a green mass, i.e., restoring the forests. In other words, photosynthesis should be increased for the carbon dioxide to be absorbed. Deforestation of our planet’s equatorial belt did great harm. It is also necessary to clean the ocean waters, for the ocean is a regulator of carbon dioxide, while oil slicks and other manmade factors rob it of this function.”

UKRAINE ABNORMAL

“During the meeting you also talked about darkening, another global phenomenon about which little is known.”

“To a certain extent, global darkening is a consequence of warming. High temperatures increase evaporation. The atmosphere receives a large number of chemical substances that thicken the clouds, which in turn block sunrays. The intensity of light that reaches the surface of the earth has seen a 2-3 % drop in the past ten years alone.”

“What can this lead to?”

“Coupled with global warming, it can change zoning. Every zone represents an economic setup established centuries ago. Any change in a country’s zoning entails changes in the infrastructure that calls for a certain type of nature utilization. This would be a very heavy blow to the economy. In my opinion, government bodies should now be considering likely scenarios of how they should act if these zones are shifted.”

“How can warming and darkening affect Ukraine?”

“Forecasts say this country’s southern region will face desertification, the steppe zone will shift northward, and the level of precipitation will change. Therefore, we must think about the selection of crops capable of withstanding these changes. Unfortunately, all that Ukraine is giving consideration to now is reaping bumper harvests rather than raising crops that can resist sudden climatic changes. In the meantime, some changes have already taken place. For instance, the wind rose has changed in Ukraine over the past 15-20 years. Why? Because wind directions used to be linked to the energy balance of planets that I mentioned earlier. The weather is also becoming more and more unstable. From time to time meteorologists say that a certain temperature or phenomenon occurred 200 or 300 years ago. Yes, this really happened. But anomalies were not as frequent as they are now.”

THE PRICE OF BEING POLLUTION-FREE

“Are there any recipes for solving climate problems?”

“Everything is in people’s hands because the main cause of all these processes is a colossal amount of waste. Take nuclear energy, for example. On the one hand, it does not seem to be increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases. But on the other, it is creating the problem of spent fuel. Nowhere in the world has a shelter to store radioactive waste for tens of thousands of years been invented. There are only temporary places of storage, in Ukraine too. There are even places with 800-900 radioactive waste depositories that need upgrading. Thermal energy clearly contributes to the greenhouse effect. The only remaining thing is water energy, but for some reason humanity is in love with traditional ‘unclean’ energy and has totally neglected the study of alternative, waste-free options. I’ll give you a few more examples. When we extract ore, we apply the term ‘waste’ to the same metal, which is somewhat depleted. Deposits of unused ore occupy far-flung territories and they also pollute water. Scientists recently estimated the investments needed to clean the environment of existing polluting technologies at about 95% of the gross national product.

“Take high speed, which we love so much. This requires huge outlays of metal and power. According to statistics, developed countries use 300 kilos of paper per person. And how many acres of forests have to be cut down in order to fill this quota? Just one issue of The New York Times requires about 120 hectares of mature woodland. Another blight is the increased flux of ultraviolet rays resulting from the thinning of the ozone layer. Ultraviolet rays that reach the earth’s surface automatically increase the risk of skin cancer. Ultraviolet rays are now causing hundreds of thousands of melanomas in Europe alone. At the same time, the ozone layer is being destroyed by atmospheric emissions from freon, which is used in refrigerators. Phosphorus, an integral component of fertilizers used in farming, is being depleted right now. But for some reason no one is raising this question, while agriculture will always remain the source of human nourishment. In other words, we must ensure that living standards do not diminish and that human health and environmental hazards are reduced to a minimum. We must seek a replacement for non-renewable resources; we have to develop waste reutilization technologies, so that waste can serve as an indispensable resource.”

“You mean sustainable development?”

“Yes, but I would rather use This term is more applicable here: a human wants to be unsinkable, like a good ship with a first-class captain in a storm — in other words, to live comfortably, and improving the environment instead of polluting it. Biologists prefer to assess this kind of stability from the angle of biodiversity, which deteriorates in the event of human or industrial interference in the environment. Flora and fauna clearly interact with one another: the former is the source of nourishment for the latter. All it takes is for one link to be removed and the whole system crumbles. For example, at the turn of the 17th century Kyivan chronicles wrote that long shoals of sturgeons would run down the Dnipro in springtime. Now there is no trace of large fish in this river. On the other hand, sea-borne bullheads and needlefish have appeared. The Black Sea has also seen a drastic drop in the fishing industry. This was in fact caused by these so-called newcomers that promise nothing good, i.e., contamination. At the same time, stable development is only conceivable if everything is kept in harmony.”

WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

“Is this possible in Ukraine?”

“I think so, but only if we iron out some irregularities. For instance, Ukraine’s land has been plowed over too much. While environmentalists believe that forests should account for 37-45% of the territory, there are areas where 95% of the land has been plowed over. Can there be any question of biodiversity in this case? Naturally, this causes erosion and reduces soil fertility. Whereas at the turn of the 20th century, as historical sources claim, the humus content of soil was 7-11%, now it is 1.8% at most. Ukraine used to be famous for its mighty oak groves. Can you find an oak tree older than 40 years now? Ukraine should start thinking now about how to restore its forests; this cannot be put off until better times. Our Academy of Agrarian Sciences has calculated that Ukraine can make do with 23- 24 million hectares of arable land to carry out intensive farming, while this figure is about 35 million now. It is easy to say: let’s plant forests on the ‘surplus’ hectares. Those places are populated with people accustomed to agricultural work and they will have to be retrained. In a word, we have to think and develop a state program aimed at a reasonable restructuring of our society without harming the environment.”

“Are scientists being heeded in these matters?”

“Of course. But that’s not the problem. Ukraine is now at a stage when invested capital is expected to give an immediate effect. In the case of ecology, several dozen years down the line this capital will return in the form of a generation of healthy people. Decision makers usually take a dim view of such long-term and intangible projects. Nevertheless, I think all states must work for the future of humankind. Otherwise, unimaginable living conditions await us. We have the UN Security Council now. In my view, we also need an ecological security council to oversee the resolution of global environmental conflicts.”