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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Yearend a Time of High Activity 

26 January, 1999 - 00:00

By Ruslan MALASHENKO, Helvex Financial Agency
Let us sum up some results of the December bidding. Experienced analysts
and Wall Street brokers consider December and January two of the most active
months. This opinion proves true when you examine the corrected statistics
on December bidding.

Daily index. The high was registered at 22.53 points, the low
at 18.65, the average, and December average 20.46 (up 1.49 compared to
December). In general, the index was more or less predictable, its fluctuation
decreased and it closed the year with a low of 16.52.

Trade volume. Total 1998 trade volume was Hr 322,080,367, including
Hr 28,087,523 in December (8.72% of the year's total). Volume rose substantially
over the preceding crisis months (for example, October volume was only
Hr 7.841 million, while in November it was Hr 18.685 million), displaying
increased brokerage activity during the last month of the year. Average
monthly transaction volume compared with the annual and made Hr 1,221,197.

Structure of transactions. The volume of transactions in securities
grew 33.92% in money in December (over November) but fell to 56.57% of
total volume. I want to note that the number of issuers registered in transactions
grew to 39. The increase of "energy emitters" is evident (all energy generating
companies and seven energy supplying companies) which is usual during a
slump. The largest transactions' volume was registered with Kyivenerho
securities totaling over Hr 2.5 million or 8.92% of the whole turnover.
The volume of transactions with domestic government bonds rose (83.22%)
to Hr 8.541 million, which shows traders' intention to somehow save their
money, because they do not have a chance to purchase hard currency on the
exchange. Also, a flurry of activity with debts or in other words bills
of exchange is evident - up to Hr 3.53 million (+63.72%.) Transactions
in the long forgotten speculative compensation certificates totaled only
Hr 124,648 or 0.44% on the threshold of their expiration.

Prediction. January is a very important starting point, a kind
of barometer, determining the climate for the rest of the year. If the
month ends with an increase, the year's results will be in the black. Analyzing
technically the OTC Stock Trading System's index, we can conclude that
the index is likely to rise slightly, though, unfortunately, it closed
on December 31 with a slight fall (the index being at 21.56 points).

 

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