RETURN OF THE GREAT FEAR

Two years ago or so I told a West German Bundestag member about assassinations in Ukraine. The man said the situation had not as yet reached the “serious” stage, and that the time to get really worried would come after Ukrainian deputies started getting killed on Kyiv streets. He knew what he was talking about, because he had studied the developing countries’ experiences long enough. There are cases in history when things said and done acquire symbolic meaning. Quite often, things symbolized actually begin even earlier, so that when a certain event occurs it is just a record in the public mind of a certain qualitative change. In other words, Vadym Hetman’s assassination symbolized Ukraine’s entry into the Third World.

In any developing country, the “toiling masses” are known to be alienated from the “exploiter class” and the government. In addition, domestic policy more often than not has a touch of irrationality. The Ukrainian Cabinet announced that the populace will have to pay a 20% electric bill hike starting May 1. So what? Nothing happened. The populace took this silently, because no one is going to pay anyway. Characteristically, for those who will have to pay, the enterprises, the price increase is reduced to 3-4%. And the government is all out to show its irrationality. After almost a year’s work the Cabinet came up with a new action program, subject to parliamentary approval. Moreover, our learned ministers are busy with some documents to govern the economy until the year 2010 - as evidenced by Ihor Mitiukov’s polite remark that “planning the hryvnia exchange rate for the next 12 years is not worthwhile.”

The Third World countries are known to exist abiding by the vicious circle principle: national wealth dwindles, while the struggle to snatch cuts from this pie intensify; sentiments for redistribution grow among the ruling elite, resulting in worsening conditions for legitimate economic growth. In other words, the gross national product is on a downward curve, and so on and so forth. Among the sure indicators of such lamentable condition are over-regulation and isolationism. The past week was marked by an almost hysterical outburst of “protection for the domestic manufacturer.” Lobbied by a broad range of government structures, including the State Standardization Committee and the Journalists’ Union. Andriy Tovpash, director of Lviv’s Svitoch chocolate factory appeared on the crest of the wave with a remarkably characteristic statement to the effect that “the only way to save Ukraine from total collapse is by supporting the domestic manufacturer.” Here the piquancy is that Mr. Tovpash’s products had finally become edible (even preferable to other such goods, in certain respects), but only after surviving rigorous competition offered by inexpensive and low quality imported chocolates. Should the government extend its protectionism to beer and chocolates, one might as well kiss goodbye to similar good quality domestic products. Accordingly, national output will be shortened and political struggle will gain momentum. See Paragraph 1 above.