Jobs for all!
World Bank: Half of Ukraine’s migrant workers will return home in 2009
It looks as though the situation with labor pool in Ukraine is the same as with grain: shortage is bad but ample supply is even worse. Experts predict that because of the economic crisis some three million Ukrainian migrant workers will return home from Europe and Russia next year. In particular, such is the opinion of the World Bank. Previously, the Ukrainian government at least declared that it wants to see Ukrainians return home and help build Ukraine with the money they earned abroad. What is to be done with them now that Ukraine has enough of its own jobless people? Solving this problem requires radical employment programs. Experts say that one has to act quickly and to the point in time of crisis.
Says Tetiana Petrova, head of the Department for Employment Policy and Migration at the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy of Ukraine (Minpratsi): “The Minpratsi has prepared Ukrainian labor market estimates for 2008-09. Among other things, the number of employed residents aged between 15 and 70 is expected to drop to 20.7 million in 2008 and that of the unemployed to increase by 100,000-200,000. Next year we expect another decline by 300,000-600,000, with the total number of the unemployed reaching two million, or 8-9 percent. In the first half of this year our unemployment rate was 6.2 percent.”
Add to this number another several million unemployed, people who are not anyone’s concern today. According to Minpratsi experts, the available draft amendments to Ukraine’s labor legislation address only the issue of preventing businesses from being closed and helping people keep their jobs. Will Ukraine meet all these challenges so as to preserve its qualified manpower potential, let alone provide adequate working conditions and enhance social security?
Natalia Ivanova, advisor to the Ukrainian ombudsman, says: “Europe is reducing quotas, tightening entry requirements for migrant workers, and urging the question of readmission. Every country is formulating national priorities for cutting unemployment among its own citizens. The only jobs left in Europe will be ones no European will ever apply for. We have spoken with people who worked in Italy, Spain, and Portugal. They say they had to work for 10-12 hours. Of course, they earned more than they would in Ukraine.
“Russia is considering a quota increase. A decision to this effect is in the making, but there will be stricter requirements to migrant workers, as the employers want to have qualified manpower. Now what is Ukraine doing? We have hidden labor relations, hidden staff reductions, illegal pay, and the same applies to Asian or Chinese migrant workers in Ukraine. Talking about protecting our workers, we must not practice a policy of double standard.”
Experts also believe that the economic crisis struck Ukraine at a time when the labor market remained to be reformed, with over 20 percent Ukrainians being economically inactive (mostly in the rural areas).
“They will suffer when they can’t sell their produce because of the population’s reduced buying capacity, so these people will be the first to add to the number of the poor,” specifies Natalia Ivanova.
Experts’ warning are now proved by real examples: Ukrainians, who earned a thousand or more euros a month in Europe, will not work for 200-300 euros in Ukraine. Liudmyla Khodos, head of the All-Ukrainian Association “Krai,” believes that this may result in a situation where jobs in Ukraine will be taken by migrant workers from Asia and China, although she thinks that in time of crisis these jobs should be given to fellow countrymen in the first place. Be that as it may, Ukrainian labor market experts anticipate an increase in the number of Asian migrant workers.
Jeffrey Labowitz, head of the International Organization of Migration Mission in Ukraine, takes a fairly realistic view of the domestic labor market situation and the prospects of our migrant workers. He realizes that Ukrainians will be loath to work here for a pittance and will make every effort to stay in Europe. In his opinion, Ukraine must help these people find jobs abroad.
He says that most of our migrant workers, even if they return to Ukraine for a visit, go back to Europe shortly afterward, and that he believes they will try to stay there. Therefore, this problem requires a global approach, a complex analysis of labor sectors on the European continent, looking for niches that have to be filled. After that one should look for manpower, people who could be encouraged to work in this or that country. For example, Britain needs people who can do simple things, like installing radiators, Labovitz said.
Ukrainian and foreign experts are working on recommendations aimed at minimizing the impact of the economic crisis on the Ukrainian labor market, focusing on problems that remain to be solved, particularly the neglect of human and labor rights, as well as concealed staff reductions. Many believe that the main problem is the “unlimited monopoly and the absence of actual competition for potential workforce” on the Ukrainian labor market.
“The main reason behind this situation is the fact that the state hasn’t as yet become an active labor market operator. The same applies to other markets where it is present only symbolically,” says Liudmyla Khodos.
