Belgrade – Kyiv: changing philosophy

Serbia’s Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, leader of the Progressive Party, has won the first round of the presidential race. It came as a totally unexpected landslide victory past week. The official vote count showed that Vucic had collected 55.8 percent of votes, followed by liberal candidate, ex-ombudsman Sasa Jankovic with 16 percent. In other words, Vucic may stand a real chance of winning the race after scoring in the first round.

Aleksandar Vucic said, addressing his team at the campaign HQ in Belgrade, that it was a very important day, that it “shows in what direction Serbia wants to go. It has been important for this victory to be as clear as a tear drop to not allow anyone to make a random interpretation of the difference that has been made. … For me it is important this election has demonstrated that a large majority of Serbian citizens favor the continuation of the European path while maintaining close ties with China and Russia.” He added that his victory should be considered absolute and doubtless, so no one could call in question his lead in the race, that he’d won 12 percent more votes than his contenders, and that it meant some 430,000 ballots cast; that he would retain his post as head of government for about two months before being sworn in as president.

Officially, the election turnout was some 55 percent, 2 percent lower than during the 2012 campaign. There was a total of 11 candidates, with satirical comedian Luka Maksimovic collecting 9 percent of votes.

His presidential powers will be few and formal, including the right to send legislation back to parliament for reconsideration. However, Vucic is expected to appoint one of his like-minded politicians as prime minister, in order to strengthen his position as head of state.

The Day asked Oleksandr ALEKSANDROVYCH, Ukrainian ambassador to Serbia, for comment on Vucic’s landslide victory in the first round, and whether the president-elect’s intention to have closer ties with Russia could affect the relations between Serbia and Ukraine.

SERBIANS REGARD VUCIC ALMOST THE WAY THEY DID BROZ TITO

“Officially speaking, Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic will become Serbia’s next president some time after May 31, after the tenure of the incumbent President, Tomislav Nikolic, ends. Then parliament will vote on the new head of government, considering that the post will be vacant after Vucic becomes president.”

Why do you think Mr. Vucic won the first round?

“The presidential campaign’s intrigue was whether he would win the race in the first round or after the second one. In the second round, if and when, the competition could’ve been severe, with the opposition rallying to win the race. Remember what happened in 2104 and 2016, when the coalition, led by Vucic, won both times, collecting one half of votes? This time, he may well win more votes. A presidential election is more personalized than a parliamentary one – and the same is true of Ukraine.

“Serbians appear to regard Aleksandar Vucic as another Broz Tito in what was then Yugoslavia, as a politician trying to keep his balance between various force centers. While officially proclaiming his European integration, EU membership, Vucic is trying to maintain neighborly relationships with the Russian Federation, United States, China, United Arab Emirates, and other important strategic partners. Practical cooperation with NATO is also on an upward curve, even without NATO membership. All this is happening, in spite of the fact that the Serbian in the street remembers what happened in 1999. This, of course, is a factor that holds back comprehensive Euro-Atlantic integration. On the other hand, the dialog between Serbia and NATO is getting increasingly active, bringing this republic just one step away from joining the membership action plan.”

SERBS FEEL FRIENDLY ABOUT UKRAINE

Was there a Russian factor involved in the presidential campaign? There are media reports about Russia arranging for an attempt on the Montenegrin prime minister, in order to prevent that republic from joining NATO.

“A Russian factor is omnipresent in Serbia. I know about the media reports. It’s hard to tell how many people believe in Moscow’s interference. The campaign programs of the eleven presidential candidates show that only three took a realistic stand with regard to Russia, from the standpoint of Ukrainian interests. Regrettably, none of them has won the race. It is also true that the Serbian political leadership and the elite are entertaining no illusions about Russia. All of them are well aware of what’s happening in Crimea and Donbas; of what they will be able or unable to do. There is a big difference between what they said a year and a half ago and what they’re saying now, concerning the events in Ukraine. Back then, public opinion boiled down to Serbs following the Russian propaganda cliche, that there was a civil war in Ukraine. Today, this opinion is essentially different. Serbs now believe that Russia and the United States are fighting a big geopolitical battle, and that small countries like Serbia and Ukraine can only suffer from it. What I mean is that public opinion in this country has made a U-turn. The Serb in the street feels friendly and sympathetic towards Ukraine. There are some exceptions, of course, like radical, extremist, and marginal political groups. Most Serbs want the war [in the east of Ukraine] to end as quickly as possible; they understand that Russia is involved in the outbreak of the war. At the same time, most Serbs tend to steer a middle course. Perhaps without what happened back in 1999, US air raids and all, Serbs would’ve quickly rejected the Russian factor and integrated with NATO.”

What about official Belgrade’s intention to maintain neighborly relationships with Moscow? Could this affect Belgrade’s relationship with Kyiv?

“Serbia’s foreign policy won’t change after Vucic’s victory. Some adjustments will be made, but the strategic course will remain the same: EU membership. This reminds me of the situation in Ukraine, in 2013, when the administration officially set its course on EU membership while maintaining good relationships with Russia.

“Talking of Ukraine, Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has repeatedly assured me that he wants the best relationships with Ukraine – and his policy has served as proof – but that, in view of certain historical circumstances, the stand taken by part of the Serbian population, there is no way to cut short all relations with Russia, he added. Therefore, I don’t see any limitations in terms of relationships between Ukraine and Serbia, in terms of politics, economy, and culture, unless any of this provides a tangible impact on Serbia’s relationships with Russia. Once again, it is safe to assume that this political course won’t change after the presidential election.

“As Ambassador of Ukraine, I can say that my embassy has, for the past 1.5-2 years, made every effort to step up business and cultural cooperation with Serbia. There was an interval in our bilateral relations, from 2013 until 2015, due to reasons beyond our control. A large scale business forum was held in Kyiv past fall. Two major events will take place in Serbia this May – another business forum and a Ukrainian culture festival in Novi Sad. There are no problems with business, investments, trade, culture, and support for the local Ukrainian ethnic community.”

VUCIC: SERBIA SUPPORTS UKRAINE’S SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY

You mean the Russian factor will have no effect on the relationships between Ukraine and Serbia?

“I mean that the Russian factor will prevent Serbia from supporting EU declarations or sanctions against Russia. Serbia won’t condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, in Crimea and Donbas. On the other hand, a week before the election date, Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic told a news conference that Serbia fully supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, just as Ukraine supports those of Serbia, considering that Serbia hasn’t recognized Kosovo’s independence. We’re in a similar situation, from the standpoint of international law.”

Mr. Ambassador, what do you think Ukraine should do to produce more information about what’s happening in Donbas, to help Serbs understand that Russia is the aggressor state with regard to Ukraine, that Russia is sponsoring terrorism?

“I’d like to thank The Day for taking an interest in this subject. I’ve had my articles carried by various local periodicals over the past two years, and I’ve appeared on [local] channels. I can tell you that their philosophy is changing, that Russophilism in Serbia is overstated. Of course, the Eastern Orthodox Slavic factor is involved, but this isn’t a blindfold; this doesn’t mean that people there are unaware of what is actually happening. When meeting and debating with delegates of the Serbian Radical Party fresh from a visit to Crimea, I reminded them of the situation in Ukraine. The situation had been constantly discussed by the media and had become an important cause for debate. People watched our debate live, they listened to what the ambassador of Ukraine had to say, just as they watched and heard politicians who tried to whitewash themselves. In other words, there was a Ukrainian factor involved in Serbia’s presidential campaign.”

When do you think the new president will visit Ukraine?

“Embassies on both sides will have to make arrangements for this top level visit. That’s the main criterion, along with arrangements for business cooperation. We’ll see what happens after the second business forum. At present, the trade turnover between Serbia and Ukraine amounts to 280-300 million dollars. There is also official paperwork to handle, almost ten instruments to be signed. This visit can be discussed after making all these arrangements and paperwork.”