Edward LUCAS: “Europe did not realize that it was a geopolitical competition with Russia”
Current events in Ukraine have been broadly highlighted in the world and it is good. However, the question arises whether the West and the EU understand the risks and threats, posed by the crisis in our country, which may affect Europe as well. The Day asked this question to Edward LUCAS, International Editor at The Economist and the author of the book The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the West.
“I’m afraid, this is an expensive, costly education for Europe, and the Ukrainian people are paying most of the price. I think that Europe did not realize that it was a geopolitical competition with Russia. And Russia understands this very well. And it is in Russia’s interests to have a weak and unstable Ukraine. And this is what Russia is getting. And it’s in Europe’s interests to have a strong and stable and prosperous Ukraine, and this is what Europe is not getting.”
Who can hint to the EU leadership that it should not waste time, instead – act fast and offer something to Ukraine?
“I think that the Visegrad Four countries, chiefly Poland, and the Baltic countries and Sweden are to form a kind of pro-Ukrainian bloc in Europe. And they are doing a good job. The problem I think is that for many European countries Ukraine is not a priority. South Europeans don’t see what the process is about, and some of the North European countries, like France and the Netherlands are mainly worried about migration, they don’t need to have easier visa.
“So, the political constellation of forces is not great in Europe and I am very disappointed about this. I believe Europe should offer Ukraine a membership perspective on base of performing. And in ten years’ time, when you will be far long on that path, we can probably start talking about membership. I think Europe should give Ukraine a membership perspective. And this will be of enormously important in barely symbolical terms. We have a lot of work to do until Europe is ready to make that offer.”
Won’t it be too late? For it is unknown how the situation in Ukraine will develop and how it will be solved?
“Yeah, I think that the situation now is very difficult. I don’t see any clear outcome and I am worried the Yanukovych regime has infuriated Western politicians and discredited itself and is not seen as a serious negotiating partner now. So, I think we have a phenomenon of Ukraine fatigue when people just say: let’s concentrate on other staff; we can’t take these people seriously; they cheat and lie and steal and they are just not serious partners. And so it is going to be difficult, even if the Yanukovych regime wants to make a new approach to the West, I think it will be difficult to get a hearing. And if there are early elections and a new government, then I think everything can change, but I don’t think that it is likely.”
What is your assessment of Merkel’s role in this situation, in particular, that the Association Agreement was not signed in Vilnius?
“I think Merkel has done a pretty good job. And I am very glad we don’t have Gerhard Schroeder in Germany now. But in the past few months Germany in fact has not had a government. And the coalition negotiations are still going on. So we have a kind of paralysis. And I think if Ms. Merkel had won the elections and we had the same government as before, Free Democrats, I think we’ll be seeing a more energetic role.”
What do you think about the Cox-Kwasniewski mission? Why did it fail?
“I think the Cox and Kwasniewski partnership was not a great one. They obviously did not agree on things. It was not really what their status was, they weren’t really ambassadors. And these envoys can influence the situation when everybody wants things to work. They just need people to act so that they could solve misunderstandings. This was basically a power play and they did not have the authority to deal with the power play. I think more deeply there is a fundamental problem of the Eastern Partnership which is about geopolitics which is about values, that it’s about values we should be very tough on the Yanukovych regime, for his abuse of media, abuse of the law, courts, abuse of the election process, for its capture of state assets, and all sorts of things. We should be very tough on this government.
“If it’s about the geopolitics, then we have to try hard to frustrate what Russia’s up to. And it was never clear whether the Eastern Partnership was a geopolitical concept or a values-based concept. I think in that lies the reason of the failure.”
Bruce Jackson stated at the Civil Society Conference in Vilnius that Ukraine should be measured differently than other Eastern Partnership countries concerning the issues of democracy. What is your opinion?
“I think every country is different. It was stupid to put Ukraine in the same category as Armenia, or Moldova, or Azerbaijan. They all are Eastern Partnership countries and they are very different. So, I was against this from the beginning. I think what the first way to accession to the EU is – you had countries who really-really wanted to do it, and their elite and people really wanted it. So, it was a kind of unanimity. And this meant you could set tough conditions and the politicians agreed to meet them.
“Ukraine’s in a very difficult position. You have elite which is basically interested in stealing and staying in power and does not really want to make the country transparent, with the rule of law, and integrated into the West, because this will be bad for them and the Yanukovych regime. I think it was a mistake to think that the Ukrainian leaders are the same the Polish leaders were in 2000. But I still profoundly and passionately believe that Ukraine is a European country. It has a European destiny. We should be reaching out to Ukrainian people to make sure that they are not hostages, not captives of the corrupt friends that have taken over the country at the top.”
