European test for Jeb Bush

On June 9 Jeb Bush, Florida’s ex-governor and one of the key presidential nominees from the Republican Party, began his European tour. This will be his 90th trip abroad since 2007, in his post-governorship. However, this time around it will be very special, because the next Monday after visiting Germany, Poland, and Estonia, the youngest representative of the Bush dynasty is to officially announce the start of his presidential campaign.

Commentators remark that with his European tour Jeb Bush expects to reinforce his presidency claim. Yet it will be not an easy task to accomplish, as his elder brother George W. Bush is considered in Europe the most unpopular US president after the Second World War.

On the other hand, his father, George H.W. Bush, is held in high esteem in Germany. It is thanks to his effort that after the fall of the Berlin Wall the German nation was able to reunite, despite the reluctance of France and Britain.

Nonetheless, given such a controversial backdrop, Jeb Bush hopes to present himself as the most important and qualified presidential candidate from the Republican Party. In other words, this trip offers him a chance to demonstrate his significance and intensify his criticism of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy.

As one of Bush’s foreign policy advisors commented to POLITICO, this trip is “about the restoration of our alliances and the importance of values-based American leadership on the world stage.”

Bush’s itinerary indicates that this European tour will be focused on Russia, a complicated challenge which highlights the key argument of his foreign policy: that Obama’s approach allowed for the appearance of a more belligerent Vladimir Putin, caused the alienation of America’s allies, and made the world less safe, says POLITICO.

“Bush is likely to make a hawkish case for a more robust commitment to the defense of our East European allies and perhaps the permanent stationing of US troops in the front line countries – something both Obama and Merkel have been unwilling to do,” said James Davis, director of Political Science at St. Gallen University.

“You’re going to see a candidate who is ready to restore our alliances that have frayed a little bit,” another Bush advisor told POLITICO. “Those are NATO allies; we have to be prepared to defend them.”

It is yet too early to project how successful this European tour will be for Bush. But it is worth remembering that in 2008 the then presidential candidate Barack Obama enjoyed a star-like reception in Berlin. After hearing his speech near the Victory Column, Europe was hit with a wave of Obamamania. Merkel received Obama in her office, but she would not let him speak at the Brandenburg Gate.

Conversely, another Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, wasted the opportunities his own European tour bid. In London he began lecturing to the British about how they should hold the Olympics. As a result, according to David Cameron, he antagonized all Brits.

“HE WILL RETURN WITH AN EVEN MORE RADICALLY CLEAR PERSPECTIVE OF TODAY’S GLOBAL SITUATION”

Yurii SHCHERBAK, former ambassador of Ukraine to the US, Canada, and Israel, Kyiv:

“At a certain moment, when I visited George Bush Sr., American ex-president, I met Jeb Bush. His sociability made a very positive impression on me. Jeb is younger than his brother George, and had more features typically found in American politicians. At that time, he was the governor of Florida.

“Jeb Bush has a wealth of expertise, since Florida is a very complicated state. Being a governor there is quite a challenge due to a mixed ethnic composition, various conflicts, and the presence of mafia. In Florida he is quite popular.

“As for his election prospects, I am quite skeptical about them. The thing is, that America’s democratic traditions repudiate such dynasties. Even by American standards, this would go too far. A son followed his father as a president, and then not in the most successful period in American history. And now, yet another Bush. Therefore, his last name alone will repel a rather large proportion of democratically-minded voters. Nor will the memories of wars started by his elder brother in office lighten the voters’ mood.

“Yet it is very good that he is coming here to see things for himself. Poland and Estonia will provide him with sufficient information on Russia’s actions and the threats which Russia now poses for the European Union. Jeb Bush is one of those hawkish politicians who will not accept all this situation with Russia, which is trying to regain its dominance on the continent. Clearly, the information gained in Poland, Estonia, and Germany, will be used in his rhetoric, which will certainly affect the sentiments within American society, as well as within the US Congress. We know that the Republican Party is implacable when it comes to Russia’s aggression. They are not afraid to call a spade a spade. And I am convinced that Jeb Bush’s rhetoric, after his European trip and acquaintance with the situation on the spot, will also be quite harsh and will affect the public sentiment in the US. It is very important, since American public is hardly interested in foreign political subjects. Often Americans do not understand what exactly is going on and that another presidential candidate will be coming home, enriched with European experience and the insight into the real situation, which is taking quite a dramatic turn in Europe, this will be a very positive development, because Bush will tell the public what is going on and how Russia is involved in aggression. So on the whole, I have a positive opinion of his European visit.”

You mentioned one dynasty, the Bushes, but in the opposite camp Hillary Clinton is a likely nominee, a representative of the Clinton dynasty, whose spouse Bill twice served as the US president. What can such a duel of dynasties result in?

“Today, the Democrats have a majority. Demographic surveys and sociological cross-sectional studies show that half-socialist sentiment is rising in American society. In this respect, Democrats have a certain advantage. Another advantage is that the Democrats will nominate a single candidate, without dispersing their forces between several nominees. Hillary Clinton could quite probably become such a candidate.

“The prospect of a first female president in the White House fits nicely in the Democrats’ feminist philosophy and their gender policy, which probably falls in with the sentiment of the majority of American public. Why not, after all? There has been an African-American president, now there will be a woman president. This gives Clinton a certain advantage today. But the marathon race is very long, and the presidential candidate faces big challenges and serious obstacles. Today we cannot say with certainty that Ms. Clinton will move into the White House.

“There can be some surprises, just as it happened to Obama in his time. Indeed, when the American presidential race began in 2006, it was Clinton, not Obama, who was seen as the favorite. Yet gradually the black horse, obscure to the vast majority of American people, transformed into a powerful force, and Clinton had to quit the race. In other words, what we see now is just a preliminary alignment of forces.

“The Republicans’ drawback is in having too many candidates, without the only one, who would be clearly preferred by all GOP supporters. At least, s/he is not in sight at the moment. Jeb Bush is one of the many. Apparently, he has his advantages, but he will hardly be able to win the hearts of the majority of voters. Also, even given all her advantages, Clinton too faces a very hard path to victory.”

“BUSH ALSO MUST FORMULATE HIS APPROACHES TOWARDS HELPING UKRAINE”

Which messages must Jeb Bush send on his visit in Europe?

“I expect only one message from Jeb Bush, which has already been formulated by many Republicans and their resolutions. It is treating Russia’s aggression as a matter of great, global consequence, as a threat of starting a war on the European continent. He must formulate and get this message across to American voters. I think this is the main part of his trip.

“And of course, Bush must also formulate his approaches towards helping Ukraine: aid in the form of weapons and intelligence data, a closer cooperation with Ukraine, and acknowledging Ukraine as the key ally of the US. This would be a right thing to do.

“We can probably expect rather harsh conclusions from him on the completion of the trip. Clearly, in Estonia he is going to hear things which the Republican Party will never acquiesce to, concerning Russia’s provocations and the escalation of military activities. Likewise in Poland, notwithstanding the arrival of a newly elected president, the attitude towards Russia’s aggression will remain the same. Both Poland and Baltic states understand the meaning of Ukraine as the front line, defending the democratic Western European values. Actually, that is where a war is now being waged: the war for Europe’s and EU’s future. In Poland they understand this all too well, and they will communicate this message to Bush, who is prepared for this by his family tradition and his political realization of the situation. It is very important that one of the many columns of the Republican Party, led by Jeb Bush, should communicate its own, adequate understanding of the situation, rather than conceal the truth and pretend that nothing is happening. The reluctance to call aggression and war by their proper names, ignoring the goal to divide Europe, and instead urging to return Russia to G8 is, in my opinion, absolutely contrary to all those views which Bush is taking with him to Europe. And I think he will return with an even more radically clear perspective of today’s global situation.”