First rocket, then nuclear blackmail

The New Year started with another political hullabaloo involving North Korea. In response to the UN Security Council’s resolution in support of South Korea, Pyongyang promised to boost its nuclear arsenal and carry out a third nuclear test. A statement issued by the North’s Committee for Peaceful Reunification of Fatherland, chaired by the North Korean supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, reads: “If the South Korean puppet regime of traitors directly participates in the so-called UN ‘sanctions,’ strong physical countermeasures would be taken” against Pyongyang’s “sworn enemy,” Washington.

North Korea’s top military body, the National Defense Commission, came up with a statement to the effect that in a new phase of “our century-long struggle against the United States, we do not hide the fact that various satellites, long-range missiles that we will continue to launch and high-level nuclear test[s] we will conduct will target our sworn enemy, the United States… [and that we will] launch an all-out action to foil the hostile policy toward the DPRK [North Korea] being pursued by the US and those dishonest forces following the US.”

Pyongyangfurther refused to implement the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The document reads that the signatories “agree not to test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy, or use nuclear weapons; to use nuclear energy solely for peaceful purposes; and not to possess facilities for nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment.”

North Korea’s latest rocket launch violated the previous UN resolution, so the Security Council passed a new one expanding sanctions against Pyongyang.

There is no doubt that North Korea’s militarization has reached its physical limit, as evidenced by the failed rocket launches. An army of more than three million, a large number of tanks, artillery pieces and rockets sound impressive, but only if this manpower and equipment are modern, not dating back to the 1950s, mostly Soviet models, and belonging to a military museum, as is the case with North Korea. Under the circumstances, the government in Seoul, not far from the North Korean border, feels unperturbed being within the reach of North Korean long range artillery.

It is safe to assume that there is a pitched battle underway between the reformers and the military on the highest North Korean political level. The North’s military is responsible for the harsh-worded, even hysterical statement of the Committee for Peaceful Reunification of Fatherland. The North Korean military has been traditionally conservative and done its best to prevent any dialog with South Korea.

Faulty nuclear tests are known to have been attempted at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility in 2006 and 2009, with experts saying some of the detonating systems must have malfunctioned; ditto the failed rocket launch last April. In other words, further nuclear tests are a matter of prestige for the North Korean political leadership. Some experts say China’s change of political heart won’t stop this process.

The North’s young ruler, Kim Jong-un, began to cautiously mention reform some time ago. Certain sources report practical measures being taken in this direction. In his unprecedented Happy-New-Year message to the nation Kim Jong-un promised “radical changes” in top-level politics and called for an end to the confrontation between the two Koreas, stressing that a higher living standard was the highest priority in his country.

According to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, North Korea has a master plan to attract foreign investments. FAZ quotes an unnamed German expert, hired by Pyongyang as a foreign inland investment consultant, as saying that this plan may well start being carried out this year, and that foreign companies could be allowed access to that isolated country.

Pyongyangrejected the Chinese FTA model and adopted the Vietnamese experience of selecting specific foreign capital-raising companies, so that Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and Western companies could be allowed to do business there.

Even on a limited scale, this would be a real breakthrough. The current Cuban leadership is making the island increasingly accessible to the civilized world. In the case of North Korea, the military is the biggest obstacle, says FAZ, referring to the anonymous expert. The North’s military wants to keep the state under control.

Kim Jong-un has made considerable top-level military replacements, but he still has to reckon with military influence. He has to have space for maneuver, including the sanctioning of another militant rhetoric, missile and nuclear threat stuff.

For the first time in a number of years, the Chinese representative to the UN Security Council voted for a resolution that would cause a bellicose response from Pyongyang.

Beijingwants a dialog and urges all countries to show restraint and plan their moves proceeding from long-term interests. A Global Times editorial [Jan. 25] makes it clear that Beijing is getting angry: “If North Korea engages in further nuclear tests, China will not hesitate to reduce its assistance to North Korea.” Beijing is perfectly aware of the alignment of political forces in Pyongyang, so the above quote should be regarded as a warning to the North’s conservative military and party elite; that reforms in that country would be supported abroad.

Russiais also worried about North Korea, especially about its promise to shortly carry out a nuclear detonation at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility (which is 177 km from Russia’s Primorsky Krai, or Maritime Territory). Russia’s spy satellites’ data points to an increase in digging works, resulting in two more test tunnels. Satellite photo experts believe all preparations have been made for another nuclear test, and that it will start as soon as ordered by Pyongyang.

Faulty nuclear tests are known to have been attempted at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility in 2006 and 2009, with experts saying some of the detonating systems must have malfunctioned; ditto the failed rocket launch last April. In other words, further nuclear tests are a matter of prestige for the North Korean political leadership. Some experts say China’s change of political heart won’t stop this process.

This time a uranium explosive device is expected to be detonated at Punggye-ri (plutonium was used in all previous tests).

A Chornobyl-type 5,000 kW reactor was used to produce the required kind of uranium, although it was obsolete and to be closed in accordance with the previous denuclearization agreements that would be ignored by Pyongyang.

In 2010, a US nuclear expert was officially invited to examine a uranium enrichment facility. Local colleagues said there were 2,000 centrifuges working. In other words, this facility could provide 40 kg of weaponized uranium during the year, enough for two explosive devices. It is also safe to assume that North Korea has other such facilities that are being kept secret.

In terms of politics, Pyongyang is not likely to benefit from carrying out another nuclear test, thus increasing its isolation from, and confrontation with, the international community. South Korea’s newly elected [first female] President Park Geun-hye is demonstrating her preparedness for a dialog with Pyongyang. US President Barack Obama can show a new attitude to the matter at this early stage of his second term.

The trouble is that Pyongyang appears to have a logic of its own. Those “upstairs” in North Korea are somehow sure that America will finally give up struggle and agree to come to terms with North Korea, a starving and otherwise backward country, just because its military is upgrading its nuclear warhead program.

As it was, Washington warned Pyongyang that a third nuclear test would have very unpleasant consequences.

White House press secretary Jay Carney says Pyongyang threats are “needlessly provocative” and can only serve to further isolate North Korea from the international community; that Pyongyang’s fixation on its nuclear weapons program will never benefit the people of North Korea.

Glyn Davies, the Obama administration’s envoy for North Korea policy, urged Pyongyang to discard all nuclear tests, warning that any such test would be a mistake and a lost opportunity.

Pyongyangmay well follow through with this nuclear test, just as it may subsequently ease political tensions, even signal its preparedness for further talks. Militant rhetoric notwithstanding, there must be pragmatists in the North Korean political leadership, people who don’t want another war, just like their counterparts in the neighboring countries.