The free world at risk after Fillon’s good scores

After the victory of pro-Russian candidates at Moldova and Bulgaria’s presidential elections, a few days after Trump’s, Ian Bond from London’s Center for European Reform posted a tweet: Russia 3–0. If Sarkozy’s former Prime Minister Francois Fillon wins the primary elections, as it is likely, it would be Russia 4–0. Many voters, including from the left, voted on November 20 conservative and centrist primary elections to eliminate Nicolas Sarkozy, and they were successful in doing it. But with 44.1 percent of the votes against former Chirac’s Prime Minister Alain Juppe (28.6 percent) and Sarkozy (20.6 percent), Francois Fillon is the true winner of this first round. Those who were happy about Sarkozy’s defeat may soon be disillusioned with Fillon’s success.

Francois Fillon has since a long time deep personal connections with Vladimir Putin whom he met many times, and so have most of his supporters, including Thierry Mariani – a great supporter of the annexation of Crimea. Fillon advocates strong ties with Russia and favors the lifting of sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. He described the possible reengagement of Trump’s US with Russia as good news for peace. He is also praising Assad whom he describes as a shield against terrorism even if neither Russia nor Assad’s regime truly fought against ISIS. In the past, Fillon also opposed Maastricht agreement (1992) and cannot be considered as a genuine European. Since he combated gay marriage and denied abortion right as a fundamental value, he couldn’t be described as a liberal. He has a very traditional and Christian vision of the family and of the society. Although, inspired by Margaret Thatcher, he advocates a more liberal economy, he could be considered as more protectionist than genuinely open to free-market globalized economy. As such he is more conservative than centrist as some commentators sometimes depict him.

Enjoying the support of Nicolas Sarkozy, Fillon is the favorite of the second round that will take place on November 27. Most of the political analysts deny Alain Juppe a chance to win this second round. Juppe is certainly more centrist than Fillon and he is standing up to Russia and vehemently condemns Putin’s and Assad’s war crimes in Syria. However, aged 71, he appears for many voters as being less dynamic than Fillon and being not a true game-changer.

Many French voters too as in many other countries pay little attention to international policy and security issues and do not make their choice according to foreign policy positions. Some French entrepreneurs also believe – wrongly – that Fillon would be more business-friendly than Juppe.

France also suffers an international wave towards populism and conservatism that boosts both Fillon and Marine Le Pen. It’s unlikely, even if some people try to mobilize, that most of the centrist and leftist voters will massively vote in order to oust Fillon and favor Juppe as they did in the first round against Sarkozy.

We may have a second round of the presidential election opposing Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen, who are both Putin’s devotees. In a way, those two contenders aren’t that much different. This would have a highly worrying impact on Ukraine and the Middle East, and on the free world in general.

Nicolas Tenzer is chairman of the Center for Study and Research on Political Decision (CERAP), Paris