Frontrunners suffered defeats
Expert: “After victories for Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders, the electoral race is heating up”
Republican and Democratic candidates Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders won the Wisconsin primaries. Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton and got 56.6 percent of the vote. “Wisconsin, today you sent a strong message: when we stand together there is nothing we cannot accomplish. Thank you!” Sanders said in a victory speech delivered after the primary. In turn, Clinton won 43.1 percent of the vote. In the Republican race, Cruz won with 48.3 percent, besting frontrunner Donald Trump by 13 percent. “Tonight is a turning point. It is a rallying cry. It is a call from the hardworking men and women of Wisconsin to the people of America,” Cruz said. Will the Wisconsin primaries become the turning point in the US presidential nomination race? For answer to this question, The Day turned to Americanist Oleksandr TSVIETKOV who is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
ON CHANCES OF THE REPUBLICANS UNITING
“The Wisconsin primary victories have largely symbolic value, because the total numbers of delegates elected in these primaries are relatively low: 86 delegates for the Democratic Party and 42 for the Republicans. However, victories for second-placed candidates have been truly symbolic, and it has considerably heated up the electoral race for both parties.
“It was important for Cruz to show the potential of his candidacy as one able to unite the Republican Party. Trump, although he still leads in the delegate count by over 200 votes (that is, he has an advantage), has been losing ground in national opinion polls due to his statements on various domestic and foreign policy issues of the US.
“For the Democrats, Sanders’s win was the sixth in seven primaries that took place in the US past month. It is also symbolic. His popularity is growing thanks to his appeals to the American middle class and pointing out economic and social inequalities that exist in that country. This wins him the support of middle class Americans.
“This flare-up is symbolic because it prolongs the fight into next stages. The April 19 vote, when primaries will be held in New York, will be very significant. The state holds a large number of votes, it is the home state for the frontrunners, and we will see the fight heating up even more.
Ryan could have become the nominee if the delegate votes were widely distributed before the convention with no candidate emerging as the leader. But these results have shown that while the struggle will heat up, it will most probably stay between these two candidates. The third party candidacy can be proposed only when two candidates come to the convention with neck-and-neck results. Such opportunity was a provisional option, and third-party candidate is always seen as a backup option. So far, the situation is not developing in that direction.
“As for Sanders, another interesting point is highlighted by the Panama Papers scandal. Back in 2011, he opposed the free trade agreement with Panama. Even back then, people said that Panama was turning into the world’s largest haven for asset hiding and tax avoidance practiced by large American banks and corporations. Therefore, he benefits from it now. It gives weight to his social policy demands and focus on domestic affairs.”
What should happen for the Republicans to block Trump, and Clinton to win the Democratic race?
“The voters will determine if it is possible. It is a democratic process, and primaries are held for this very purpose. But the situation is that Cruz’s victory showed that the Republican Party can unite around his candidacy. It showed that he can win. So, this is an incentive for the party to unite around him and block the other guy.
“It applies to the Democrats as well. Some party members and most party bosses support the frontrunner. But this does not mean that everything has been settled. The fight is only starting.”
What are Speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan’s chances to get the Republican nomination?
“There is almost no chance for it. Ryan could have become the nominee if the delegate votes were widely distributed before the convention with no candidate emerging as the leader. But these results have shown that while the struggle will heat up, it will most probably stay between these two candidates. The third party candidacy can be proposed only when two candidates come to the convention with neck-and-neck results. Such opportunity was a provisional option, and third-party candidate is always seen as a backup option. So far, the situation is not developing in that direction.”
