The “new atmosphere” in Iran

On February 26, the parliamentary elections in Iran saw (perhaps, for the first time in their entire history) a breaking point to the advantage of the reformists and moderates. It is too early to guess if The List of Hope, President Hasan Rouhani’s bloc of reformists and moderates, will gain the majority in the parliament of 290 seats. By the way, the reformist candidates gained all the 30 mandates in the country’s capital, Tehran. Yet the very fact that the numbers of reformists have grown threefold and reached 89 seats, while hardliners only have 86, speaks volumes. Ten PMs were elected as independent. Today, on March 1, names of 60 more MPs are to be announced. The second round, to elect 51 more MPs, will be held in April or May. Outside the capital the picture is more variegated, these districts traditionally back hardline politicians.

Yet perhaps the most important is the reformists’ achievement in the Assembly of Experts. President Rouhani and his allies from Teheran alone gained 15 out of 16 seats in the Assembly, thwarting two hardliners’ reelection, including the speaker of this influential body. According to the results of the election, the hardliners might lose their majority in the Assembly of Experts, which consists of 88 counselors and has the mandate to choose the successor to Ayatollah Khamenei, who is 76 and ailing. Meanwhile, it is the Supreme Leader who plays the most important role in Iran.

President Rouhani tweeted that voters “have created a new atmosphere” in Iran. He believes that this election has become a sign of approval for his effort to get Iran out of international isolation. “The race is over. Time has come to open a new chapter in Iran’s economic development, based on domestic talents and global opportunities,” said he as quoted by IRNA.

Meanwhile, his ally and former President of Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani, said in the social media that “no one is able to resist against the will of the majority of the people and whoever the people don’t want has to step aside.”

Observers agree that this election must become a critical indicator of the population’s perception of the policy implemented by Rouhani, who was instrumental in convincing the West to lift economic sanctions against Iran. According to the outcome, Rouhani will be able to garner enough support to promote the overdue reforms, and maybe, even run in the 2017 election.

The polls have shown that the nation has moved towards the moderates, which means the beginning of a new era. In the observer’s opinion, President Rouhani’s positions are considerably consolidated, which could allow the reformists to intensify the dialog with the West.

European observers, in their turn, believe that the Iranian voters have sent a clear message: they want more openness and more reforms.

More than 4,800 candidates contended for the 290 parliamentary seats. Almost 55 million Iranians are entitled to vote, 8.5 million of whom in Tehran.

“THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION SHOWS THE IRANIANS’ ASPIRATION FOR CHANGE”

Oleksandr SAMARSKY, former Ambassador of Ukraine to Iran:

“The outcome of the election shows that the Iranian people aspire for change, as well as for the preservation of the current tendency towards the solution of the problems. However, the problems Iran is facing lie in the realm of international politics. These are the sanctions and the challenges of socio-economic development. Therefore, the main thing is that this election will consolidate the foreign political vector, the stabilization of the security situation around Iran. The lifting of the sanctions has given a considerable boost to the reformists and their positions.

“We can expect that as a result, the path will open to many economic transformations and to international cooperation. Yet the essence of the system will remain untouched. Let us not forget that President Rouhani comes from clerics. It should also be noted that the difference between the reformists and the hardliners is inconsiderable and pertains to the realm of foreign politics. The development of a secular state is out of the question. This Islamic state will remain Islamic. The victory of the reformists, who come from clerical circles, will considerably forward the consolidation of the regime. In my opinion, Iran is undergoing a transformation, the public opinion is slightly tilted towards more democracy. Frankly speaking, today Iran is more democratic than the USSR was in its last years.

“Ideology will remain in power in Iran, albeit in a rather mild form. Foreign political relations will be opening much faster. Domestic economy will stabilize, as well as the domestic political situation. In the meantime, democratic tendencies will grow.

“Good news for Ukraine is that the general political situation in Iran will stabilize. This will forward the stabilization of the security situation in the region, and I think that our relations with Iran will improve. The temporary alliance of Russia and Iran has considerably frustrated our bilateral relationship.

“On the other hand, Russia will not be gaining any more foothold in the region, which is also good for us. This is due to the fact that Russia, with its technology, has nothing more to seek in Iran. As soon as this country opened to its Western partners, the cooperation with Russia stopped.

“Ukraine must use the situation which results from the latest election in Iran. Before, the Iran-Ukraine relations were much overshadowed by the Iran-Russia ones. Moreover, there are reasons to believe that on the eve of Maidan, Russia used Iran and other allies in the region to exert pressure on Ukraine.

“It should be borne in mind that the broad Iranian public has a positive perception of Ukraine. While the perception of Russia, on the level of everyday consciousness, is predominantly negative, given the violent common history, continuous wars, loss of territory etc., Ukraine is seen positively, as a reliable and cooperative partner. Ukraine has never actually dropped off the radar in Iran, and I hope that it will stay up.”