A new social contract is necessary

Are there government commissions today for social research to study the public opinion?

“I haven’t heard of such research. As for our Institute, we hope and expect such orders to come in, since we can carry out Ukrainian and general European monitoring research. The thing is that during the past 12 to 15 years, we have received orders for at least monitoring research from the government, which reflects the general state of the society. Perhaps, they have commissioned some commercial centers to carry out such research, but I have not seen the latter publish corresponding results.”

What type of research do you perform today?

“Mostly, those are local experimental projects, which we can carry out by ourselves. In general, representative public opinion polls are rather pricy, and the Institute’s budget does not cover even the employees’ salaries and fees for public utilities. Everything that has to do with our financing directly is being cut down. And we need certain funds to carry out representative research.”

What role does sociological research play for the government?

“And what is the role of a mirror for a shaving man? The same goes for decision-makers. Now they are using sharp means; in fact, they are handling a razor when they plan tough reforms. This leaves deep cuts in the face of our country, because the government does not use sociology and never listens to public opinion.”

How satisfied are the people with the work of governmental institutions after past year’s parliamentary election?

“Of course, the level of trust and satisfaction with the government has somewhat subsided. There is a tendency towards shrinking of its base. However, it is not on such a scale which could be expected should there be no external aggression, on Russia’s part. People understand that in war time life becomes hard for everyone. If such an economic crisis struck the country in peace time, the society would face a total disaster.

“The most recent monitoring on this issue was held past July and August. Even then people assessed the country’s economic situation as the worst over the years of independence. Only the early 1990s were worse. No wonder, when the country is experiencing such a bad downturn.

“However, other parameters of satisfaction did not show such deterioration. The society still cherishes a hope that nothing was in vain. In my opinion, this will be the deciding level. Yet the people must make sure that there is some progress in this direction. Back in November 2014 Social Monitoring, a think-tank, held a poll which sought an answer to this question: ‘Do your gains justify all the losses and sacrifices?’ Only a third of respondents believed that the sacrifices and victims were justified, and more than 50 percent gave a negative answer. But if all the polls were generalized, we would see that society still hopes to get on the tracks for the sake of which Euromaidan actually began.”

What is your opinion of the political class’s will for quality reforms?

“They might be willing, but their desires should coincide with their abilities. However, as I watch Yatseniuk rejoice over ‘tightening the belts’ ever further, I do not understand his desires. This must be a separate question for psychologists who study the individual’s internal motivation.

“Speaking of the realization of this symbolic desire, an ordinary citizen sees that all processes in the country are moving exclusively at his expense. And no one sees decision-makers who sacrifice anything for the sake of transformations in the state.

“Our society used to be based on quite an inadequate social contract with the government: live and let live. But under Yanukovych government was the first to grossly violate that contract, and people stood up against it and took to Maidan. However, today the main thing is creating a new social contract, and quite a simple one: in this transition period, everyone must get his share of hardships. The people must tell the government: ‘Do you want to make us suffer? Lead the way, be the first to suffer so we could see that you are not scared. Only when you lose a sizeable chunk of your fortunes, will we be prepared to sacrifice.’ Yet this social contract has to be a temporary one, only for the period of economic crisis and war. A normal social contract should sound like this: ‘We are your employers, you are the employees who are paid by us. If you screw up, we choose others.”

How did society accept foreigners in the government? The government is accused of ignoring Ukraine’s human resources.

“Ukraine’s human resources have been used for 23 years. If there is an opportunity to use the knowledge and expertise of people who created effective reforms, why not then? The main point is to have such a Ukrainian government which would be able to produce a strategy. Then the most efficient performers should be handpicked to fit this strategy. If foreigners have the relevant expertise, skills, and qualities, it is worth involving them in work.

“However, I am not sure that the Ukrainian government has really chosen the best qualified people. I have a feeling that they were selected on the ‘first come, first served’ principle. There was no open competition for the positions in question. The first example will be seen in the Anti-Corruption Bureau, where a competition is announced and a selection procedure is developed to find the best candidate to lead the NABU. Of course, this is a complicated process, but perhaps the vacant seats of ministers should not have been filled so hastily and easily.”

Now the fourth round of mobilization is under way. Different sentiments prevail in the society in this regard. How would you describe them?

“The question of mobilization brings us back to the start of our conversation, the government monitoring public opinion. It is not enough just to ask, ‘Will you take up arms?’ Of course, 20 percent will say ‘Yes,’ and we will get a virtual million-strong army. Even the 300,000-strong bureaucratic host will say they are ready to defend the country, but they cannot be mobilized. Therefore we have to assess the situation realistically, in terms of available resources and potential. For this, a specialized and utterly professional research is necessary. Then we would find out on what conditions people are prepared to volunteer in the army. One of the military experts, who served in the British army and later, in the expedition troops, said that farm boys are useless in the army, it is just a waste of men. Conversely, he argues that right incentives would attract enough volunteers, and such an army would be more efficient.

“When the US joined the Second World War, the government created a special sociology unit which researched this very aspect: (un)willingness to join the army, (dis)ability to do that, the optimal conditions, and so on, and so forth. This program was called American Soldier, and it studied the issue thoroughly.

“Any program, including that on creating a modern army, must be developed not by those who have already showed their capabilities while leading military operations. It must be done by those who have enough information at their disposal, who can organize a step-by-step development of plans and programs. Maybe, foreign experts should be involved in this process too, as Ukraine has no experience in developing hybrid war strategies or creating a modern army.”

Last week saw a terror attack during a March of Dignity in Kharkiv, which claimed four lives. This is not the first terror attack in Ukraine recently. How does society react to such events?

“The feeling of danger is a normal human reaction, but people understand that terrorists can be overcome, because they are already resorting to individual terror. Such acts are evidence of weakness.

“But the fact that it happens in cities like Kharkiv and Odesa, reflects the aggressor’s and performers’ hopes to demoralize the people. Yet I do not think that it could cause panic. Those who abet terrorists do not realize that terror evokes aversion and a desire to counter it, rather than panic, in a country which has something to defend. And I am convinced that Ukraine is exactly such a country, for it has fought back its chance for a European future.”