Rahmon re-elected for a fourth time

In line with expectations, the current president of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon won a landslide victory in the election that was held in the Central Asian nation on November 6. According to the official results, he received 83.6 percent of the vote, supported by 3.2 million citizens. Thus, the Tajik leader who has run Tajikistan since 1992 will rule the country for another seven years. Both in percentage and in absolute numbers, Rahmon’s success was more impressive than in the previous election in 2006. None of his five competitors received as much as 5 percent of the vote.

It should be noted that every presidential candidate had to collect 210,000 signatures in their support to be registered. The opposition Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) and the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) that had nominated Oinihol Bobonazarova, a human rights activist, as their joint candidate, failed to submit the required number of signatures. As a result, the SDPT boycotted the vote, while the IRPT declared its unwillingness to participate in the electoral process in any way.

Observers from the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights assessed the Tajik election as “not fully competitive and democratic.” “While the election was calm and peaceful, the voters lacked genuine choice. To further its democratic aspirations, Tajikistan critically needs expanded political pluralism,” the special coordinator of the OSCE’s short-term observer mission Gordana Comic was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti.

Observers note that Rahmon will face rising social tensions during his fourth term, as 50 percent of Tajiks live below the poverty line. Half of the country’s GDP is generated by the money earned by Tajik migrants abroad. In addition, the BBC reports that Tajikistan could face security challenges coming from Islamist groups in neighboring Afghanistan when NATO member nations’ troops withdraw from the latter country next year.

However, it is possible that Rahmon will run again after this term ends, even though the current constitution limits president to two consecutive terms. To do so, he will need to hold another constitution-amending referendum, as he did in 1999. Rahmon may well win it, as he is quite popular in the country.

The Day asked Rashid Gani Abdullo, an independent expert, to comment on the results of the election and give his opinion whether there is a real alternative in Tajikistan to its present 61-year-old leader.

“Nobody would ask this question if there was a real alternative, a candidate with real political weight. Currently, nobody in Tajikistan can equal the president’s support, not only among the elite, but also in society as a whole. Therefore, the present election’s outcome is to some extent a reflection of reality.

As for the US and Europe’s refusal to recognize the Tajik election as free and fair, I would say that the Western nations just do not have the right to decline recognition for this election. After all, Bobonazarova withdrew her candidature due to technical reasons. The law cares about formalities, and she failed to run not for political reasons, but because she lacked signatures. From this point of view, the actions of the Western nations look somewhat dubious. On the other hand, the latest developments are unlikely to really upset the West. It needs a stable Tajikistan to solve its own problems, and stability in Central Asia is especially important now, as the Western nations are preparing to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan. If this stability will come from incumbent heads of state, the Westerners will grumble, but still mostly accept the latest developments.”