Russia after March 4

One of the most discussed events in the post-Soviet space has recently been the presidential election in Russia, scheduled for next Sunday, March 4. If no divine forces intervene, the incumbent prime minister will win. Indeed, the most recent poll conducted by the independent analytical Levada Center, 60 percent of Russian citizens is prepared to vote for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This completely rules out the possibility of a second round. The Day asked Ukrainian and Russian experts to answer two questions: What are the relations between Ukraine and Russia going to be like after the Russian presidential election? What should Ukraine (and in particular, its political circles) expect and prepare for?

“THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW IN VIEW”

Nikolai PETROV, member of academic council, Carnegie Moscow Center:

“To me it seems that no fundamentally new changes in the foreign policy, first of all in the relations with Ukraine, will happen after this election, since nothing basically new is going to appear. Putin has run the country’s foreign policy, and so he will continue to do. Besides, there is a potentially dangerous factor that can aggravate Russia’s relations with the West (also psychologically). This is the anti-Western card, which is being played during the current campaign. This does not in any way affect Russia-Ukraine relations. However, there will be no changes on condition that the domestic situation in Russia remains unchanged. But it probably will change. Yet at the moment it is not clear what effects it can have on the foreign policy.

“I think that Putin is not going to stay in office till the end of his third presidency. It seems to me that after the election he will begin to gradually withdraw. Or at least that he will lose a part of the power he now has as a leader, and will have as a president. In some way, power will be divided between the major political and business clans. I think that all of his presidency, or a part of it, will be marked by an alteration of Russia’s political system, its modernization, and a greater interest in domestic problems than international.”

“UKRAINIAN POLITICIANS SHOULD REALIZE THAT UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS ARE ASYMMETRICAL”

Valerii CHALY, deputy director general, Razumkov Center:

“Russia-Ukraine relations have always been a combination of partnership, competition, and sometimes even conflict, regardless of who occupies the key posts in Kyiv. There are objective reasons for this and of course, they will become stronger after Vladimir Putin’s return as president. He is the most likely candidate as Russia’s president, and not only because he has repeatedly emphasized the importance of bringing back the integration project uniting the post-Soviet states, first of all Ukraine, as a major priority of his foreign and domestic policy. There is no doubt that now such policy will become even more aggressive, and there are no easy times lying ahead.

“I do not think that Putin has ever really stepped down. As a prime minister he was not the first person in the country – but he has never been second, either. His stand in negotiations is known to the president of Ukraine, as well as to the previous leaders, so there will be nothing really unusual for them. They have long known he has pursued a hard line in the relations with Ukraine.

“Ukraine’s politicians should realize that Ukraine-Russia relations are asymmetrical. Thus, in order to play equal and champion mutually beneficial solutions, they should involve all resources which will allow to overcome this asymmetry, such as the mechanism of arbitration tribunals, international organizations, and a wide support of business circles and society as a whole. I hope that this conflict will lead to this view of policy, rather than the closed and obscure backstage deals, struck in the Kremlin and at Bankova Street.”