What should we expect from Merkel?

Recent events in Ukraine, such as the suspension of the process of preparations for signing the Association Agreement by the government and so-called Euromaidan, mass rallies against this step of the Ukrainian power, have received broad response all over the world. The Day has also published the views of Polish and Lithuanian observers, who criticized the step taken by the Ukrainian government and, at the same time, expressed their hope that the Association Agreement will be signed in Vilnius.

The Day asked a German expert, Senior Policy Fellow at European Council on Foreign Relations Stefan MEISTER to tell whether Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel’s attitude to signing the Association Agreement after recent events in Ukraine, Euromaidan, and Tymoshenko’s statement, where she supports the signing of the agreement even if she will have to stay in prison, will be more favorable.

“No, it won’t. This is a principal question for her; Tymoshenko must be released and all demands of the EU must be fulfilled. She cannot be inconsistent in this question, because she will lose trust.”

What do German politicians and experts think in this concern, in spite of the Euromaidan in Ukraine? Do they support the signing of the agreement or not?

“Is the question about the EU’s not signing the Association Agreement and DCFTA? Above all it is the Ukrainian president who does not want to sign the agreement because he needs money and loans, which he can get only from Russia. The decision of signing the agreement depends on Ukraine, not the EU. The EU has set clear conditions, and now everything depends on Ukrainian leader.”

What does Merkel’s future coalition partner, Social Democratic Party, whose representative Frank-Walter Steinmeier will become a foreign minister, think about the Vilnius Summit? Do they support the signing of the Association Agreement, even if not all the conditions are fulfilled, including Tymoshenko’s release?

“Social Democrats are more inclined for a compromise, whereas Christian Democrats are consistent concerning the fulfillment of the terms.”

The German Chancellor has recently stated that she is going to speak with Putin about Ukraine and Eastern Partnership. Can Merkel really influence Putin and stop him from exerting pressure on Ukraine?

“She cannot influence Putin and she won’t be able to stop him from exerting the pressure on Ukraine. She can publicly criticize him, but I don’t think Putin will listen to her. At the same time, it is Ukrainian leadership who should make the decision, not Russia, or the EU. And current Ukrainian leadership prefers to play the game in two directions.”

What does Germany expect from Yanukovych? Does it understand how important positive results of Vilnius Summit for Ukraine and Europe’s future are?

“Germany does not expect much from Yanukovych. And only the change of government may lead to bringing Ukraine closer to the EU. Ukrainians voted for Yanukovych at latest elections, and now they have to yield the results of this decision. We will see a decrease of interest to Ukraine in Germany because of the limit of changes in the country.”