What will the majority in the Verkhovna Rada and changes in the Cabinet of Ministers look like?

While the main intrigue of today still is the further destiny of more than 10 problem electoral districts, other interesting processes do not cease to happen. Among them are forming of the majority in the parliament and possible reassignments of the high-level officials. Of course, the next parliament will be different due to the changes not only in the rules of admission of MPs, but in the quality of these people as well.

Firstly, the two political forces, UDAR and Freedom, that have never felt the taste of work in the main legislative body of the country (with an exception of individual politicians), passed to the parliament. Secondly, the majoritarian compound brought not only a lot of new, but also old, one might even say odious people to the new parliament. For example, former “director” of the parliament of the late 1990s – early 2000s Oleksandr Volkov, who came forward as an independent candidate, but was supported by the oppositional Fatherland (this refers to the matter of opposition’s otherness). Thirdly, a certain elementary rotation within the parliament’s old timers (the Party of Regions, Fatherland, and the Communist Party of Ukraine) took place.

The approximate number of MPs from political parties in the new parliament is already known. The Party of Regions set such tasks as having a simple “regional” and a constitutional majority together with communists, but the election result made this plan significantly harder to achieve. Controlling the two thirds of the parliament is out of the question (this mission has been failed), and now they are trying to put together a majority which would be the most disposed to the Party of Regions. After all, the war for separate constituencies is going on because the current government needs its faithful supporters.

“The Party of Regions will not be able to create a purely ‘regional’ majority,” says political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. “Even if the majority of non-partisan MPs enter the PoR, it will not be enough. It would even say that not all the independent candidates want to do this. According to preliminary calculations, the PoR has more than 180 seats, and when we add about 30 or 35 more MPs, it is still not enough for the majority. The communists will stay autonomous. Thus, the majority will only be created in case if the Regionals manage to get a dozen of turncoats from the opposition parties.”

But according to the expert, this is dangerous for the government. “Why will the assessment of Ukrainian election happen not now or at the beginning of December? Because, for example, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe will make the decision on Ukrainian elections considering the beginning of the Verkhovna Rada’s work and creation of the parliamentary majority. The appearance of the turncoats will inevitably lead to these elections being recognized as not democratic. The EU has stated this numerous times. The government has to understand that an attempt to form the majority from the PoR forces only is an additional serious argument in support of the undemocratic nature of the elections for all foreign critics of Ukraine.”

So what the future scenario may look like? “The following option is more optimal and rational: no legal creation of any official majority,” the expert answers. “The current Constitution does not require this. In order to vote for the decisions necessary for the government, a simple situational majority is enough. That will eliminate the need to recruit opposition MPs, write applications to join the party, have the agreements ‘signed in blood.’ And if the Regionals attempt to create a majority that would consist of purely their party members, that is, if they will choose to be so unreasonably bull-headed, they will disgrace themselves on the international scene again. Considering the fact that they have already made a lot of mistakes, they need to act more flexibly now.”

In terms of recent history, the formation of the parliamentary majority is a more tactical task. If you look deeper into this, according to numerous experts and experienced MPs, the first convocation of the Verkhovna Rada was the best one in the quality sense. And then a gradual regression took place: the parliament was losing its influence and became a tool in the hands of the president, and such notion as “turncoat” stuck to MPs, which means that the legislative body was commercialized. The present-day parliament is a striking confirmation of that. Will the situation change in the next convocation?

“The parliament can be evaluated according to different criteria,” Fesenko says. “For example, from the point of view of votes and the stable majority, the situation will be worse in the new parliament. However, in terms of the representative function, protection of various political and ideological interests, this parliament will be better. It will reflect the political structure of the society and voters’ preferences more accurately. Another criterion is the one of constructive work: a willingness to work together on projects of national importance. The EU is also interested in this. There is a whole set of matters related to the European integration, which could not be solved because of conflicts in the Verkhovna Rada. However, considering the present-day conflict situation and the approaching presidential elections, I have serious doubts about the constructiveness of the parliament’s work. Unfortunately, we will see a much more conflicting parliament from the very first day of the Verkhovna Rada’s work.”

Personnel rotations are impossible to avoid, the only questions are how big they will be and who exactly will be affected by them. It is clear that they will happen within the parliament. There is already a fight for the committees between the Regionals, let alone competition for the speaker’s and his deputies’ seats. But the changes in the Cabinet of Ministers are rather intriguing as well. The removal of the head of the Cabinet Mykola Azarov has been discussed during the past two years, but surprisingly, he managed to keep the seat, though the same cannot be said about his ministers. Since the moment of appointment of the current Cabinet, at least a third of ministers was changed. The discussion of changes in the main executive body of the country has been renewed after the election: it concerns the prime minister himself as well as other ministers. According to our sources, the Energy and Coal Industry Minister Yurii Boiko might soon be removed from his post. It is not yet known if he will be given another post, but it is very likely that his present position will be taken by the current Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Eduard Stavytsky. Also, it became known to us that as soon as Stavytsky vacates his current post, it may be given back to Mykola Zlochevsky (he was the minister of environment from July 4, 2010 to April 20, 2012).

“Serious contradictions appeared in the government because of the assessment of the elections,” Fesenko emphasizes. “None of the high-ranking politicians, except Yanukovych, feel confident and certain of their future. The changes in the parliament’s leadership will definitely take place. As for the Cabinet of Ministers, the Constitution does not require any changes, but a number of ministers will transfer to work in the Verkhovna Rada. The prime minister’s position is unstable too. There are several pretenders to his post. A lot of intrigues are going on around this matter now: president is being convinced in the need to replace the prime minister. However, a lot of problems will emerge in case Yanukovych decides to do that. Serious changes in the Administration of the President or the Cabinet might disorganize the system of the government. Another argument is the preservation of the balance of interests between different influence groups. We know that Arbuzov wants to become a prime minister; and so do representatives of other groups: Khoroshkovsky, Kliuiev, and Poroshenko. It would be more logical to wait and conduct a thorough reconstruction of the government a bit later, but the fight for positions has already begun.”