Why did the president come to the parliament?

“We are always a few steps ahead,” says one of the Party of Regions MPs contentedly in a private conversation with The Day before voting on the amnesty law. “Everything will happen according to our scenario.” “The opposition will not even make one move,” another interlocutor sums up. By “the government’s scenario” the Party of Regions MP meant voting for an agreed draft law on amnesty by his fellow party member Miroshnychenko, which was approved by leaders of all factions in Volodymyr Rybak’s office.

“There really was an approved law on amnesty,” says one of Tymoshenko’s allies. “All faction leaders agreed to support it. All of them. And it provided additional terms in the form of mandatory vacation of administrative buildings by protesters. Yatseniuk, Klitschko, and Tiahnybok agreed to this.”

Everything seemed to go according to the plan. A bit later than originally scheduled, the MPs finally gathered in the parliamentary chamber. However, The Day’s sources say that a real riot happened within the Batkivshchyna faction. Active Maidan participants refused to vote for the government’s draft law. “If we vote for it, people won’t understand us. It will mean the treason of Maidan and all the people there. How am I supposed to look people in the eye after that?” said one of the former front-line protesters to Yatseniuk.

“I am ready to vote for Yemets’ law only. All others will mean only the disbandment of Maidan,” said Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) MP Arsen Avakov during the first break between the sessions.

After the long discussion before the evening voting, Batkivshchyna made the decision to not support the previously “approved” (the fourth registered draft law on amnesty) law by Miroshnychenko (in fact, deputy head of the Presidential Administration Andrii Portnov was its virtual author).

Meanwhile, the Party of Regions started a fuss. During the day, a lot of the Party of Regions MPs said they were ready to vote for any law on amnesty immediately, saying the main point was to settle the crisis in a peaceful way. However, the president was satisfied only with the draft law that contained additional terms. So, the Party of Regions’ leaders could not allow for one of the opposition’s laws to be passed unilaterally.

As a result, it became clear that negotiations had failed and all four draft laws were proposed for the voting. Speaker Rybak did not appear in the parliamentary chamber for a long time. The situation escalated, MPs refused to close the session and continue negotiations on Thursday. And then Yanukovych personally came to the Verkhovna Rada.

The Day’s sources in the Party of Regions say that the president was especially convincing on that night, and crushed even the biggest dissenters. The presence of the Presidential Administration head Andrii Kliuiev also promoted the operative settlement of the situation. The subsequent voting demonstrated that the Party of Regions remains solid and even those MPs who argued some points of draft laws, had to agree to Yanukovych’s arguments. As it became known, the president threatened not only with the disbandment of the parliament, but with personal reprisal for everyone and radicalization of the protest in case one of the opposition draft laws is adopted. Such development of events would directly affect the reputation of the president’s faction and would demonstrate its weakness.

Nobody dared to try out the implementation of these arguments on themselves. And the parliament that was supposed to settle the social and political crisis within the country became a mere tool again. “The opposition had to dismiss speaker Rybak immediately,” said the Party of Region member, who was satisfied with Yanukovych’s determination. “Why did they promote a law on amnesty and by doing so, automatically recognized the guilt of the arrested people? Why in the world did the opposition vote for the cancellation of basically illegal laws on Tuesday? By the way, Yanukovych is in no rush to sign it, so the laws are still in force.” “Instead of fighting for the prime minister’s post, they should have demanded the dismissal of Prosecutor General Pshonka, who manages the government’s terrorists, taking hostages for further negotiations,” the interlocutor added.

The Day’s sources in the Party of Regions also deny rumors about Russia’s determining influence on Yanukovych’s political movements. At the same time, it is admitted that the law on amnesty was forcedly adopted on Putin’s request in order to placate America and Europe. However, now Yanukovych is left face to face with Maidan and the opposition.

Revealing in this respect are permanent attacks of some pro-Russian lobbyists in the Party of Regions, propagating the federalization of Ukraine (such as Tsariov and Kolesnichenko). Nowadays almost all Regionnaires are trying to keep their distance from these two gentlemen. “The very discussion of civil conflicts, let alone the splitting of Ukraine, is a provocation,” insisted MP Vladyslav Lukianov (Party of Regions) in his conversation with The Day. In the parliament Lukianov belongs to the group led by Artem Pshonka, son of Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka, who is closely linked with the Yanukovych family and the president himself. “I do not support emotional speeches which only add oil to the fire and increase confrontation in society.” The Day has already written that Yanukovych is against the idea of splitting Ukraine (http://www.day.kiev.ua/uk/article/den-ukrayini/chomu-vlada-pishla-na-postupki-i-chi-pishla).

In this context, the opposition’s recent “victories” in the parliament were a pure sham and aimed at the discrediting of the trio, according to The Day’s sources in the presidential administration.

Firstly, offering prime ministership to Yatseniuk was supposed to let the West see that Yanukovych is prepared to concede some of his power to the opposition, but the latter will not assume responsibility for settling the country’s problems. It is for a reason that Yatseniuk is still experiencing pressure from the oligarchs representing Europe and America.

Secondly, by voting for repelling the legislation passed on January 16, the opposition virtually acknowledged the implementation of these laws up to January 28 and automatically accepted the rigged voting on January 16. Thus it became target for a new outburst of criticism. However, according to the oppositionists, the regime would not accept any other compromise. “I know that the opposition is far from perfect, but come on, let us stop with this nonsense. Unlike the government, we are concerned about people and we want to settle this situation peacefully,” complained Avakov to The Day.

Thirdly, the canard featuring Svoboda Party, which allegedly opposes the restoration of the 2004 Constitution, hounds protesters out of the seized government buildings and, consequently, does nothing but provoke talks about the split opposition and selling out the protest.

Next, the regime was able to pull through its version of the “bill on amnesty,” which proved the opposition’s political impotence: it turned out incapable of completing its mission in the parliament even given the presence of many dissenting Regional MPs.

Lastly, on Wednesday majoritarian MP Oleksandr Volkov (Party of Regions) said to the journalists: “I want the political crisis in the country to be settled today. And I am sure that today negotiating with the opposition leaders is not enough. We have to go out to Maidan and listen to the people standing out there.” Alas, this information was overlooked. Volkov is linked to Andrii Kliuiev, head of the president’s administration. Such his statements show that the regime’s tactics aims at discrediting the opposition and thus beheading Maidan.

So while the oppositionists continue pinning their hopes on the next presidential election and perceive the current situation as a mere political crisis, rather than a historic opportunity to change the state, Yanukovych sees himself president elect in 2015 and does his best to take the wind out of Maidan and opposition’s sails.

“After the president signs the repeal of January 16 laws and the law on amnesty, countdown will begin, and Maidan will find itself in a situation when after 15 days (granted to withdraw from the seized administrative buildings) run out and a decision is to be taken,” says political scientist Maksym Rozumny. “Some will advocate complying with the law, others will oppose it. One thing is clear: in any case Maidan will turn a loser.”

According to Rozumny, in the near future Maidan will face a dilemma: should it leave the premises of the Kyiv City State Administration and the seized administrative buildings in the regions, or not. Here the newly appointed KCSA head Volodymyr Makeienko, a man of renowned diplomatic skills, joins the game. “The question is whether the people are prepared to go far (as justice minister Olena Lukash has already repeatedly emphasized, creating alternative governmental bodies incurs criminal liability) and whether they dare to go on with protest actions.”

Both the opposition and Maidan are now in a situation when time works against them. The regime can just find a right tactic, and its advantage over the protesters will grow automatically (this is the reason for yesterday’s news about Yanukovych calling in sick: he is trying to win time). Later government-financed workforce (such as teachers or hospital personnel) could join in the game with their demands that the president stabilize the situation.

So without a rapid radicalization of the protests in the capital and in the regions Maidan will slowly burn away. Yanukovych despises his oppositionist rivals: he will use his whole bag of tricks to neutralize political opponents. It is only up to the Ukrainian people to frustrate the regimes strategy. For the people have nothing more to lose.