Yevhen HOLOVAKHA: “Klitschko will make or break the next parliament”
The last public opinion poll about the future election was surprising. The rating of Vitali Klitschko’s party UDAR has significantly grown, the Communist Party and Svoboda have also improved their positions, however, the Party of Regions and the Consolidated Opposition have nearly the same rating. According to the information of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, if the election had been held at the end of May the Party of Regions would have received 27.7 percent of votes, the All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland would have got 26.3 percent, Vitali Klitschko’s party UDAR – 15.5 percent, the Communist Party – 9.8 percent and All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda – 5.1 percent. We asked the famous sociologist Yevhen HOLOVAKHA to comment on this information:
“There are two tendencies. The first one is that the communists’ rating is going up. The voters disappointed by the Party of Regions are turning to the Communist Party. However, in the circumstances given the communists are acting in a strange way and are difficult to understand. They are still members of the parliamentarian majority but they constantly criticize the authorities. So, are they at the power or in the opposition? The second tendency is that Vitali Klitschko’s party UDAR has demonstrated significant growth. Judging from this information, Klitschko will make or break the next parliament. It imposes responsibility on him and his team.
“The fact that the Party of Regions and the Consolidated Opposition have approximately the same rating is expectable. The situation was the same before the opposition consolidated. However, we should not forget that this is the information for the pro rata representation. Here the opposition has good chances to win. However, the most interesting developments are expected in the majoritarian constituencies. There special polls are organized. As far as I know, they are being actively carried out and vast sums of money are being spent on them. This information exists but it is not available.”
The dynamics are clear now. In your opinion, who has won from the consolidation of Fatherland and Front of Changes?
“Certainly, Klitschko has won a little. Those who were dissatisfied with this consolidation turned to him. Have the consolidated parties won? It does not really matter for the pro rata representation but in the majoritarian constituencies the opposition will benefit from it. If they manage to coordinate their activity in constituencies with UDAR, they will get a chance to win the parliamentary election. The interaction of the opposition forces is especially important, in particular, in the constituencies that have not been ‘tamed.’ Since Klitschko is getting political weight he can talk from a stronger position. By the way, the future victory of the opposition forces will depend on those talks if they are able to appoint consolidated candidates in constituencies.”
What is Klitschko’s phenomenon?
“He is very popular in Ukraine, he has positioned himself as a European politician. He has not disappointed anyone yet and has not compromised himself being at power. That is why people anchor their hopes in him since he is a politician of new generation. I think that people believe that Klitschko will not be a corrupt politician as he is independent, rich, and has experience of living in the West. Certainly, being a popular boxer is one thing and being a politician is another. He has to live up to people’s hopes. Some time ago Tihipko’s rating was growing as well and then we all saw what it ended up with. People have been hoping for new politicians for a long time now, it is the main direction of the political life development in Ukraine. People who strive for changes share this opinion. Klitschko has a chance to become an all-national leader as well as Yatseniuk, they just have to use their chance.
“One more thing. We carried out a survey in April and March, the last one in 2012. It demonstrated that people’s level of social well-being significantly decreased in Ukraine as compared to 2011. We had not seen such a significant fall even in 2008-09. It can be especially felt in small towns. Everything is OK only in the capital and the Kyivites feel secure enough. It looks like the fate of the election will be decided in small towns.”
Maybe people will vote more rationally?
“At the beginning of the 1990s the vote was nostalgic; in 2004 Yushchenko thrilled everyone with his idea of ‘bandits in prisons’ – those were emotional elections. In general, our people are quite rational. I would say they are conservative and rational. Rationalism is good, whereas conservatism is not as it leads to the traditional vote for ‘at least, not worse.’
“Now the country is in the state when it should look for new people. Certain part of the electorate realizes it. The life will make them be rational enough and get rid of their conservatism and isolationism. We can say that electors start thinking and trying to resolve problems. The lowering living standards make them do it and the authorities have to realize it. Worse emotional state is due to specific events and the general feeling is due to the general degradation.”
Is Euro likely to help?
“It is a situational phenomenon. Today we won and tomorrow we will lose. Euro is not going to become a serious factor to improve the authorities’ image. It is possible only if the Ukrainian team wins the championship. Euro is not essential from the point of the electoral situation.”
