“Lukashenko showed himself to the world as a dictator”

How does Belarus evaluate the bloody fight in downtown Minsk and the police actions, aimed at the demonstrators who participated in the protest action against the falsification of the presidential elections? What consequences will the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who ordered the crackdown, face? One of the participants of the action, the head of the department of political sciences of the European Humanities University, deputy editor-in-chief of BelGazeta Viktor MARTYNOVYCH answers those questions in an interview to The Day.

“It’s the first time this happens in Minsk. With law enforcement bodies behaving like this, Lukashenko is quickly losing the image of a widely-supported president and is becoming an authoritarian dictator. I hope their brains start working and they will release at least five presidential candidates. I believe that the detention of a presidential candidate during an election campaign is an unprecedented fact.”

According to media reports, many journalists were also detained.

“It was a nightmare. Our photographer was arrested. Journalists were kicked in the head; they were pulled face down on the snow. Yes, all this happened.”

Why does the Belarusian government treat the demonstrators so brutally?

“It seemed to me that Lukashenko could win the elections honestly. I do not know why his law enforcement bodies acted like that. But now everyone in Minsk says that perhaps it was the television channel BelSat that got the polls right — it gave only 30 percent of support to Lukashenko. These exit polls explain the acts of brutality committed on the square. Actually, he knew that he didn’t win in the first round, therefore he ordered the cruel acts against the peaceful demonstration.”

But television showed scenes where demonstrators assaulted a government building.

“Indeed, in the crowd there were some disguised provocateurs that broke the windows of the government building. But the intention was to get through and meet Prime Minister Sidorsky. Five presidential candidates formed a working group that was to enter the building and negotiate with the premier. But it didn’t happen. A special squad of a few hundred people was in the building instead. When the peaceful parliamentarians started entering the government building, they met with brutal force. Fighters with shields started forcing them out. On the side of the government there is broken glass, and on the other side, anarchy, so to speak. There are hundreds of the detained, arrested presidential candidates, beaten journalists, the entire square covered by blood of damaged faces. Is it adequate? I guess not.”

Was there a reason for Lukashenko to worry about the results if almost a quarter of his voters voted in advance?

“In my opinion, Lukashenko lost his temper. He didn’t need to order the crowd to be dispersed. They would announce that he won — no big deal, the protests would calm down. The demonstrators would not be able to stay there for five days, Catholic Christmas is coming soon. So, he showed himself before the entire world as a brutal dictator who stays in power by spilling blood. About 40 crews and 800 journalists worked on the square: they saw all this and wrote about it. It seems to me that even if they announced that he won not with 80 percent, as they said, but 55 percent, he would have come out of it gracefully. And I, for example, would have fewer questions than I have now. Now I don’t know in what country I live after what I saw yesterday and barely avoided the sticks of the special squads myself.”

Do you think the reaction of Europe and the US to the actions of the law enforcement bodies of Belarus is adequate?

“The reaction from Europe and the US is adequate. At present the position of Russia is the main question. It interests me the most. A month ago, before the meeting of Lukashenko and Medvedev within the framework of the CIS summit, they said that Russia would not recognize the elections. At that time there were no reasons for the non-recognition of the elections. And there was a feeling that Lukashenko would win honestly. But now there is a feeling that a coup d’etat took place, with the arrest of the key candidates. The candidate Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu was brutally beaten and lost consciousness, sustaining a moderate cerebral injury, while the elections were still taking place. He and his team were attacked at 7.30 pm with smoke-puff charges and noise cartridges. At that time he had a presidential candidate’s ID. Obviously, the OSCE will reflect all this in their reports and will inform about the lack of transparency. If Medvedev recognizes the elections after Lukashenko came to apologize to him, the main result — Russia’s recognition — will have been achieved.”

They will have to pay for this recognition.

“Yes, perhaps they already agreed about passing the largest oil refineries on to Russia. We’ll see.”

Then he will move Belarus towards Russia, the Common Economic Area, and the Customs Union.

“He will not move towards the Customs Union. I have an inkling that he will act exactly as he always did. The elections will be recognized in the end. He will start bargaining again, make demands, and ratify documents regarding the Common Economic Union only after Russia makes some concessions, for example, regarding the gas price. Now it is critically important for him to become a leader who can rely on Russia. And after the inauguration he will say he is the elected leader and the Belarusian people don’t allow him to give away economic sovereignty to the Russian Federation.”

How will Lukashenko’s relations with the EU evolve, taking into account this bloody fight? They expect democratic transformations from him.

“Nothing will change. Lukashenko, both his victory and being in government, is a symbol that nothing will change. Any other candidate would lead Belarus to some good or bad changes. The fact of Lukashenko’s victory means everything will be as before. He showed his governance style and how he understands power. Bargaining will persist. If Europe manages to condemn his brutality in the dispersal, he will say: fine, I’m going to Russia. And Europe will understand it can’t let Belarus go to Russia and will shut its eyes to something. Yesterday the ex-premier of Lithuania Kazimira Prunskiene said that such actions were expressions of democracy. Before this, when there were no brutal dispersals like that, it meant that there was dictatorship in Belarus. And now what happened on the square evidently demonstrates that positive changes started in Belarus. Therefore, he will be able to find those who will protect his interests in the EU establishment. The bargaining will persist, we will continue dangling between Europe and Russia.”

The majority of Belarusians seem satisfied with Lukashenko’s rule — not so many people took part in the demonstrations.

“Yesterday 30 to 40 thousand people came. This is a rather big number, though, of course, it is not 100 thousand. Obviously, the majority passively accepts him. We are not sure they vote for him. But they are not ready to come out and protest against him. And there is some wonderful irony in it. It seems to me that the efficiency of the governance model that functioned all these years in Belarus, will deteriorate abruptly. This is caused by the agreements concluded with Russia, which presuppose a price increase for energy resources, and also by the fact that the gold-currency reserves have melted away. If the crisis started, say, with Nyaklyaeu, this would show that the golden age was with Lukashenko, and with democrats and reformers, who came to the government, everything became bad. The event on the square showed that the systemic crisis would start with Lukashenko. People understand that the policy he carried out was not a miracle but a period of time standing still, during which we used the resources we got from Russia and felt that we were still in the Soviet Union. On the other hand, they understand that the efficiency of this model is not high. I predict that by the end of the fourth term there will be an abrupt drop in salaries, problems with selling produce, all set of problems caused by the isolation of the country, the absence of foreign investments and the outdated production processes. It seems to me it is a good thing that all this will happen with Lukashenko, not another president.”