NEIGHBORS

The first round of the presidential elections in Poland has confirmed a truth typical of democracies: it is impossible to predict the winner in a presidential or parliamentary election. Even now that we know the results of the first round of the presidential elections in Poland, nobody can be absolutely certain to give the name of that country’s next president.

The main contenders for the Po-lish presidency are 4.5 percent of votes apart. With 94.3 percent of the ballots tallied, Bronislaw Komorowski, Marshal of the Sejm and member of the Civic Platform, and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the party Law and Justice, have polled 41.22 and 36.74 percent of public votes, respectively. Grzegorz Napieralski of the Democratic Left Alliance, which was in power before 2005, came third with 13.5 percent.

Komorowski addressed his followers and journalists at his election headquarters immediately after the voting. The candidate from the ruling liberal Civic Platform looked as he had already won the elections. His speech was interrupted every now and then with chanting and thunderous applause. Only in the second part of his speech, when he had thanked his followers and opponents, did Komorowski say that, what is important not only in soccer but also in politics is overtime, and so it is too early to relax.

Kaczynski also looked satisfied, but he behaved more restrainedly. The right-wing candidate said the run-off would be fateful, but what really matters is democracy. “The second round is a clash between two political doctrines, two visions of Poland. We see this country’s future differently. Faith is the key to victory, [the faith] that we can and must win,” the right-wing candidate said. Unlike Komorowski, Kaczyn-ski personally thanked his main opponent, too.

Observers note that Kaczynski, who had chosen the hotel Europejski as his campaign headquarters, has changed tone with respect to Poland’s neighbors. At first the politician, who is well known for his cautious, to put it mildly, attitude to Germany and Russia, said the words of thanks to the Russians for their support after the tragic crash of the presidential airplane and then he began building new bridges with Berlin via an article in Die Welt. Moreover, the Kaczynski party’s MPs considerably reduced their “independence” during the campaign, with all important decisions being made at the campaign headquarters.

In spite of an almost 5-percent lag and the poll data that up to two thirds of the voters, who voted for the third-best Democratic Left Alliance candidate, are most likely to vote for Komorowski in the run-off, Kaczynski believes he still has chances. What also adds optimism to Jaroslaw Kaczynsky is the fact that in 2005 his brother Lech also lost to the Civic Platform candidate, the current Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in the first round but still managed to win the run-off.

Incidentally, Polish intellectuals have different opinions on who will be the next president of Poland. Pawel Lisicki, editor-in-chief of Rzeczpospolita, believes that Kaczynski does not stand a good chance to win the run-off. According to Gazeta wyborcza’s editor-in-chief Adam Michnik, the atmosphere of the Smolensk air crash helped the right-wing leader. “But everything can change in the run-off. It should not be ruled out that Jaroslaw Kaczynski may win these elections, and what happened five years ago may occur again,” the Polish journalist noted.

COMMENT

Maria PRZELOMIEC, presenter, Studio Wschod, Warsaw:

“The left-wing leader Grzegorz Napieralski emerged as the most successful candidate in the first round. At the beginning of the campaign his chances were assessed as 3 to 4 percent, but he polled almost 14 percent during the vote. The margin between Komorowski and Kaczynski proved to be far narrower than public opinion polls had suggested. Pollsters are saying now that people not always revealed for whom they would vote because they did not trust these survey agencies. Indeed, it turned out that there is an essential difference between the poll data and the voting results.

“A popular question in today’s Poland is who will take the votes of Socialists. Many political scientists believe that the Socialist leader will personally support neither of the candidates. Incidentally, the first polls are already showing that the left-wing electorate’s majority will support Komorowski. But, as the polls failed to predict precisely the results of the first round, it is difficult to believe that now the polls are really saying the truth.

“I think Komorowski and Kaczynski are standing more or less equal chances. Very much will depend, of course, on the course of the election campaign before the run-off. Political scientists believe that the run-off will be tougher than the first round.

”Before the first round, Komorowski’s campaign managers failed to persuade the electorate that Jaroslaw Kaczynski had not changed. I do not think they will manage to do so before the run-off. But, naturally, very much will depend on Kaczynski himself and on the way he will be conducting his election campaign.

“For me personally, it’s better when the prime minister is from one camp and the president from another, especially when the ruling party has this kind of support. But the main thing is they should know how to come to terms instead of quarreling all the time, as Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko used to do.

“I hope Jaroslaw Kaczynski will be able to cooperate with Donald Tusk, but this depends on both of them. I think now, after the April 10 tragedy, there are proper conditions for them to be able to come to terms.

“When power is totally in the hands of one camp, it is a bit dangerous. But, on the other hand, we are going to have parliamentary elections next year. Should Komorowski win the presidential elections, the Civic Platform will lose the parliamentary elections. Moreover, in this case this party will not have to explain why it has not kept its promises. Earlier, the Liberals used to put the blame on Lech Kaczynski who allegedly hindered them. Now it is no more the case.”