NATO — what does Ukraine want?
It has become a bad habit that each new Ukrainian government creates unnecessary confusion in regards to Ukraine’s NATO membership.
When Victor Yanukovich came with his first official visit to Brussels (when became a second time prime minister) made a surprising announcement of suspending his country’s NATO bid, due to the little support to the idea among his compatriots. He reiterated as well a plan to hold a referendum on the issue, when the Ukrainian public would change its mind. This meant de facto pushing away NATO membership perspective to an unforeseen future.
It goes without saying that such position was not received well not only in NATO but also in the EU. Membership in the first is often perceived in Brussels as a waiting room, before entering the latter. For this exact reason I also dedicate this week’s column to NATO issues.
With the new government, the story repeats, of course the accents are completely different but confused impression stays. On one hand the new authorities including President, Prime Minister and Parliament speaker signed a joint letter to NATO Secretary-General in which they expressed Ukraine’s interest in joining the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP), on the other, they explicitly say that NATO accession would be possible only upon the results of the national referendum on the issue. At the same time they say it can not be organized at the moment since the Ukrainians are not ready yet and Ukraine is more interested at present — as prime minister Tymoshenko put it recently in the European Parliament — in developing mutual cooperation in security issues on the EU level.
For those who may not know or remember, I remind that NATO invites countries to join the Alliance, where the authorities want to join either without consulting their citizens or they know how to convince its people. In any case the explicit expression of willingness is essential for the accession. As a result of such clear declaration, the process may be organized and scheduled into concrete actions and steps, which are among others included in the above mention Membership Action Plan.
What are witnessing right now, is the opposite. The authorities are making efforts in order to start organizing the process of membership, without being able to even forecast the date of the referendum, let alone its result, which by the way at the moment looks — to put it mildly — very dim, with only one third of Ukrainians being in favour of NATO membership.
Brussels very well understands constraints of the domestic situation in Ukraine as well as historical circumstances and no one expects a sudden miracle. No one will be angry or disappointed if there won’t be a substantial progress in the Ukraine-NATO relations in a near future. The current Ukraine’s approach, despite good intentions, is perceived simply as not efficient. It creates disorientation in regards to the future of Ukraine’s NATO bid. This will not help Ukraine in her endeavour.
I would suggest the Ukrainian decision makers to first secure domestic front especially that since the Orange Revolution nothing has happened in this regard. The government must actively start information campaign, which will convince Ukrainian people of the benefits from NATO’s membership and will drag the fears and ghosts of the past away. Only, when such campaign will be successfully concluded, the start of accession process will have any sense at all.
