PACE Forecast

Rapporteur of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Hanne Severinsen have just made a visit to Ukraine with the mission of PACE Special Committee on questions of observation the pre-term elections in Ukraine. Will Ukrainian September elections be free and fair, as Ukrainian leaders are saying? Which drawbacks should be removed and what can the Central Election Commission do for this? Is Ukrainian political elite able to implement a real system of constraints and counterbalance between the president and prime minister in Ukraine, and in general, to play by the rules? Why does Ukraine need a new political election system and what kind of system should it be? Is it possible that businessmen leave politics for politicians in Ukraine? These and other questions are answered in The Day ’s exclusive interview with Hanne SEVERINSEN.

Mrs. Severinsen, you have witnessed many elections in Ukraine. Do you believe that the September elections will be free and fair, like Ukraine’s leaders are saying?

“Yes, there is a chance, but I think that everybody should be very aware that in regions where a single party dominates, there could be attempts to violate the new rules for home voting and fabrications of voters’ lists. Everybody should be aware of this. We talked to the Central Election Commission and urged them to create a special procedure in order to avoid possible abuses.”

Do you believe this can be done, considering that parliament was dissolved by presidential decree?

“From my point of view, it is not necessary to change the law if the Central Election Commission agrees to introduce certain restrictions, because it is their duty to ensure free and fair elections.”

Have you received such promises from the commission?

“It is my impression that at least the chairman agrees with us. So I will urge the CEC to formulate some rules to clarify how, on the one hand, everybody can vote but on the other hand, to avoid abuses.”

Do you believe that Ukraine will become a different kind of state after these elections?

“No, I am afraid that it will be a parliament with more or less the same composition. But I think that this should put pressure on all parties to reach an accord and a real compromise after the elections, because repeat elections cannot be held. So they must solve the problems.”

Do you believe that the Ukrainian political elite will be able to change the Constitution and pass some laws to implement a real system of restraints and counterbalances between the president and the prime minister?

“As a member of the Council of Europe, Ukraine should have a clear separation of powers. There should be a clear-cut Constitution, and the Council of Europe should assist you in achieving this. Where different political forces are concerned, I have discovered a will to find a broad solution after the elections. So we have to hope. And I feel that I am bound to be an optimist, otherwise one could ask, what am I doing in this country?”

The Council of Europe has already made many recommendations, including those that concern the Constitution. Do you see any benefit from these recommendations?

“I must say that we have been patient all these years, perhaps too patient. I hope that we can serve as a moral force and help all the parties — in the best interests of Ukraine — to find a way to separate the powers in the new Constitution. But first they have to discuss among themselves if they want a presidential or parliamentary system. I must admit that over the years I have become more and more convinced that you also need a new political election system. I doubt whether it is within the Council of Europe’s competence because there are many different systems: for instance, you have the English, French, or German systems. But I can see now that, at the very least, the system you have in Ukraine creates too many avenues for political corruption.

If I were a voter in Ukraine, I would be very unsatisfied with the situation in which a bloc designates all the lists beforehand. The number obtained in the list determines your opportunity to be elected. In this system you as a voter have no influence and you have to take the whole package, where you may like some individuals but very much dislike others.

And also there are no regional affiliations. It would be better if, instead of dividing the country into regions, you improved contact between those who are elected in this region and the party. It doesn’t need to be the English system. In my country people can vote for a concrete person on the regional list of any party. If a person is corrupt, he will not be elected.”

Do you think that it would good for Ukraine, which has regional differences, to have a two-chamber parliament? This idea is supported by Adrian Severin.

“I am not sure about two chambers. It’s up to your country to find a system in which voters have some influence locally. This can be done in many ways. But the English system is unfair for those parties that are smaller. For instance, my Liberal friends in the UK have a very small chance to win seats because they are usually taken by the two major parties, the Conservative or Labour parties, and your vote is not taken into account. I think that in a country like Ukraine, where there are many minorities, there should be some sort of proportional system. A threshold of three percent is reasonable, but not a system of closed lists of candidates.”

You mentioned the influence of voters. A political force in Ukraine has proposed that the Ukrainian people should themselves create the Constitution or establish a political system (presidential or parliamentary) by means of a referendum. Would it be right for voters, rather than politicians, to define the political system?

“The question of presidential or parliamentary system is one issue. Another is the election law, how you divide country into regions or districts and have a proportional electoral district. But from the point of view of the Constitution, parliament should first have a detailed discussion with the Constitutional Commission, and only then it could be sent to a referendum. I am hoping for a quality discussion, not a tactical one, when it is being decided where one can win more with one system or another. The Constitution should be a lasting document and not changed again and again. You can’t play with the rules; you should play by the rules, as all soccer fans know. The system should be your own system. It’s not up to us to judge, only to advise.”

So you think that the Swiss experience of direct democracy would not be useful for Ukraine?

“Switzerland is a very small country, and even some Swiss are tired of all these referendums. From my point of view referendums should be conducted on important issues, like joining the European Union. Voters would like to have peace from politics in daily life. That’s why you have a system where you elect someone you think can represent you, and then they make decisions on your behalf, and if you disagree, you don’t re-elect them. That is how representative systems work. I myself prefer that.”

Do you agree with Mr. Severin, who said during his visit to Kyiv in May, that the young and fragile Ukrainian democracy is threatened by authoritarianism, populism, and oligarchism?

“Yes, I do agree with him. We have seen many oligarchs in politics. Business and politics are too intertwined in this country. It is all because of the party system, which easily allows oligarchs to be placed on party lists. And voters cannot cross out their names.

So, you do not see any way of breaking this circle so that businessmen would leave politics to the politicians?

“Naturally, one can be a big businessman and an honest politician, but not if you go into politics because of privileges and immunities. Another thing that I am hoping for is that party platforms start becoming more oriented towards values than slogans aimed at increasing pensions, salaries, etc. In the Council of Europe we divide the lines of Conservative, Liberal, and Socialist values. But if you look at the main party blocs in Ukraine, inside they are multicoloured. In fact, voters have to choose between an eastern mechanism and a western one.

What can you tell me about the report on the situation in Ukraine, which you will be presenting to the Council of Europe?

“There was a plan to produce this report in September this year, but since we had to prepare an urgent report in April, the next report will be presented only next year. There can be no talk of submitting a report in October. I think when the new parliament is formed we will visit and draw up a new report.”

What do you think about the Gongadze case? In an interview published in The Day , you said that unless this case is resolved, there will be no rule of law in Ukraine.

“That statement was too sharply worded. But I really am very worried about the rule of law in Ukraine. I think this is one of the issues that the Council of Europe needs to look into. Rule of law is a very important question because as long as you cannot be sure that a judge is impartial and that you can implement a ruling, people will not feel insecure in the legal system. This is bad for democracy. In fact, sometimes we exaggerate the importance of elections in comparison with the rule of law.”

You are familiar with the situation in Ukraine. The Constitutional Court was not working when its decision was very important during the high point of the political crisis. So the president, the prime minister, and the parliamentary speaker agreed to hold early elections. Now, on the eve of the elections, do you see that the Ukrainian elite is playing by the rules?

“In our report we said that there is a bad tendency to play with the rules, not by the rules. That is the problem. In comparison with many countries, for most of them the Constitution is an arena where you play; you have certain rules to play by and you play by them. But in Ukraine the Constitution is a soccer ball. And this is not very good, and therefore I think that many Ukrainians are tired of all this playing around with legality: you make rules one minute, and the next minute you break them or make battles or interpretations. With different rules all the time, nobody can really trust the constitutional institutions. That’s why rule of law and trust are so important. One of the lessons that I have learned is that these things take time. They took time in my country a hundred years ago, during a transitional period. You should also be acquiring certain experience, political history, when you make decisions. So don’t give up. A new generation will emerge, which will offer you new experience on how to conduct yourselves.

So you believe that the people can force the elite to play by the rules?

“Yes, and I think that in time even the oligarchs will see the advantages of playing legal games with equal rights.”