Budget totalizator
On Dec. 7 Prime Minister Yanukovych confidently declared that President Yushchenko will sign the 2007 state budget bill passed by the Ukrainian parliament.
Earlier, the Ukrainian president made statements to the contrary, and on Dec. 8 he announced that the text of the 2007 state budget would be submitted to him on Saturday or Monday, after which the economics department of the Presidential Secretariat would work on the document for two days. “I would like to have another regular meeting with the prime minister this Tuesday or Wednesday to discuss the 2007 budget law and its shortcomings, and to formulate the president’s decision on the matter,” Yushchenko told journalists.
In other words, the intrigue of signing and voting for the 2007 budget bill could have been extremely gripping, especially since the pressure on the president from various political forces has been practically evened out. Now it is up to the president to make the final decision on the basis of a multitude of factors, including national priorities, which the president will certainly bear in mind above all, and personal interests that are easily converted into a rise in the sagging ratings of the president and his political force.
Which road will President Yushchenko take? In the present case, reading political tea leaves is not very productive. Fortunately, our president is a highly educated economist and financier; he is the last person who needs an explanation of the kinds of losses a country can suffer after finding itself without an effective budget program.
But there is nothing terrible in this for the government. If one assumes that the government includes people who have dirty hands or who simply inclined to gambling in the financial field, manual control based on last year’s budget, which will get the green light if the president vetoes this particular budget bill, will play into their hands. As they say, grab as much as you can, then stash it far away.
But it is simply impossible to work normally according to the old budget pattern this year, when imported gas prices have risen substantially. Government institutions ranging from daycare centers to military units, as well as ordinary citizens or, to be more exact, utility services, will instantly find themselves without funds to cover heating and electricity bills in the absence of government subsidies owed to them under the law.
It seems that First Deputy Prime Minister Mykola Azarov was relying on precisely these options when he said that he hoped the president signs the 2007 budget bill, adding that the head of state “realizes the importance of signing the bill and its timely enactment.” Azarov also promised (most likely in response to the president’s critical remarks) that the government would figure out the situation with the salaries owed to servicemen, based on the results of the first quarter of 2007, and if necessary, would revise their rates on an upward curve.
Azarov said that the same is true of the minimum wages and the subsistence minimum. “We have taken into account the president’s many proposals and are prepared to have this document ready to be signed by the president before long.” He added that opposition members’ talk of the president vetoing the budget bill is destructive. Ukraine’s second-highest functionary noted: “The president has taken a balanced position, but there are forces - I believe they are from Our Ukraine and the opposition - that are constantly provoking the president.” He recalled that the budget bill has never been vetoed by the president of Ukraine.
Still, the possibility cannot be ruled out. Among the supporters of the presidential veto is former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the leader of the BYuT. As usual, she was blunt and to the point: “This budget cannot be adopted because it is a manifestation of top-level idiocy...it endangers not only people’s lives but also Ukrainian statehood.” Neither does she seem to expect the president to heed her advice: “Unfortunately, I think that the veto will not change anything.” Oleksandr Shlapak, the head of the Presidential Secretariat’s socioeconomic development service, was perfectly clear when he said: “I will personally recommend against signing the 2007 budget bill.”
Whom will the president of Ukraine listen to in the end? One possible answer to this question can be found by analyzing what Viktor Yushchenko told journalists on Nov. 8, when he said that he wants to have a regular meeting with the prime minister about the 2007 budget bill and its shortcomings in order to formulate his decision. What does this mean? The tight work schedule (he has 15 days according to the Constitution) whose deadline ends in mid-week may attest to the desire to sign the bill ahead of schedule so that the government can start implementing it without delay.
There is another scenario. An accelerated schedule gives parliament and the government more time for a revision.
