“Administrative resource” is resting

Strange as it may seem, Ukrainians still believe that the coming elections will change their lives for the better. Some 45 percent of surveyed Ukrainians feel optimistic about the general situation after the March elections. A large proportion — 48 percent — believes that there will be a majority in the Verkhovna Rada after the Central Election Committee announces the results, and that this will allow the Ukrainian parliament to work effectively. Many Ukrainians (37 percent) are convinced (read: hopeful) — that there will be closer and more constructive interaction between the VR, the president, and cabinet after the election, compared to the current parliament.

Residents of the Crimea and the southern and western regions of Ukraine appear to have adopted the most positive stand. The most pessimistic moods are recorded in northern Ukraine: a mere 38 percent of respondents are hoping for the best; 14 percent are afraid the situation will go from bad to worse.

Post-election public moods were studied by a team of sociologists at the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Studies (UISD) and those at the Social Monitoring Center between Feb. 18 and Feb. 22. A total of 3,056 respondents aged 18 and over were selected from every region of Ukraine. Olha Balakireva, who heads the board of the UISD, told The Day that “the population is retaining the optimism that appeared more than a year ago, during the Orange Revolution. At present nearly two times more respondents than before the last parliamentary elections, in 2002, are voicing their hopes that the overall situation in Ukraine will improve. This imposes a great responsibility on the political forces vying for seats in parliament. The degree of their effectiveness will determine not only the future of our country but also the moral and psychological condition of our society.”

All things considered, a high turnout is expected in the coming elections. Most respondents (91%) stated in February that they are ready to cast their ballots. According to Balakireva, this makes it possible to predict that no less than 73-75 percent of the electorate will take part in the elections. Only 2 percent of respondents made it perfectly clear that they won’t be voting.

Future voters say they will vote only for a political force capable of protecting their interests. For half the adult population of Ukraine this is the clearest trail in the thick forest of parties and blocs. The other important factors in the eyes of the Ukrainian electorate are confidence in the leader of a given political force (38%), an ideology that is close to the voter’s own world outlook (29%), an effective program (27%), and the presence in the party slate of politicians they can trust (23%). Remarkably, a mere one percent of respondents admitted that they might be influenced by local authorities when it comes time to cast their ballots. With this kind of electorate the so-called administrative resource has little room for offensive maneuvers. Those who intend to vote against everyone are primarily indulging their habit of taking part in the elections (these people want to vote for someone, but are not sure for whom) and are governed by a desire to express their protest against certain steps that have been taken by the current government.

Canvassing Ukrainian voters by knocking on every door has proven to be a waste of time. Among the 27 percent of voters whose homes have been visited by canvassers representing various blocs and parties over the past two months, only one percent was convinced by the arguments offered by these unwelcome guests. These people are prepared to cast their ballots for a given party, as recommended.

In contrast, one percent of respondents made it clear that they will not vote for this party. The rest simply refuse to change their stand. “The thing is that a large number of citizens made their choice a long time ago, last spring,” explains Balakireva, adding that “canvassers started working about two months ago.” This sociologist believes that local canvassing could be more effective with regard to elections to local councils and less familiar political parties. For well known parties and blocs this is nothing but a waste of time and money. It is better for them to earn electoral capital by concrete actions.