Opening a “French Window” Onto Europe
“A French heart beats faster than words are spoken,” commented Serge Vincon, president of the French Senate’s Commission for International Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces, to Ukrainian journalists on the results of a survey conducted by TNS this year in a number of European countries. The poll shows that more than half of French citizens support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. All those who have been watching television and following the press express sincere affection for Ukraine. Researchers are studying various processes in Ukraine (until recently most have dealt only with Russia), and five books on Ukraine have been published in the past six months (including the whodunit Kill Yushchenko) and launched with the Ukrainian president’s wife in attendance. Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko’s visits to Paris, which took place one after the other, aroused keen interest among business circles and the media. France recently hosted the Days of Ukraine.
The impression is that we are finally seeing some changes in Paris’s traditional attitude to Kyiv, which experts say is going to be a long-term trend.
L’Express columnist Bernard Guetta believes that 99.9% of the French knew almost nothing about Ukraine until now. In varying degrees the same probably applies to all citizens in the European Union countries except for the “new members.” He told us about the growth of interest in Ukraine during the elections and the Orange Revolution and the warm affection that the French have for us. According to Mr. Guetta, two-thirds of the French think that Ukrainians are of the same European origin, while nine- tenths of his compatriots cannot say this about Turkey and would not like to see that country a member of the EU. Therefore, unlike Turkey, Ukraine will not encounter any major problems as far as French public opinion is concerned. Under the law, France must hold a referendum on the eve of every new enlargement of the EU. Mr. Guetta thinks that if the EU denies entry to Turkey, it will be making a serious historical mistake. Not only members of the ultra-right, such as Jean-Marie Le Pen, but also many in the France’s ruling party take a rather dim view of Turkey, even though the EU admission negotiations with this country are slated to begin in the fall.
Senator Vincon would be very glad if Ukraine became part of what he calls the “system of collective security of the Western world and Europe in particular.” By system he means, above all, the system of EU security, and he is inclined to consider security the priority sphere in the process of Ukraine’s European integration. Mr. Vincon also diplomatically noted that Ukraine has a legitimate right to enter NATO but hinted that NATO is not a top- priority question for France. As is known, Michelle Alliot-Marie, France’s Minister of Defense, promised to support Ukraine in its bid for NATO membership but noted that, to start with, one should know what NATO is and that Russia should by no means be disregarded.
France will not oppose the idea of a privileged partnership with Ukraine, said Senator Vincon, adding somewhat unexpectedly that Ukraine could serve as a role model for Lebanon (a country torn apart by a decades-long civil war and sectarian violence, with the most important spheres of politics under the tight control of a stronger Syria until the recent general elections — Author).
French diplomats are more specific in their reasoning. They maintain that France was interested in Ukraine long before the Ukrainian presidential elections and that there are several important directions of work, including the action plan that President Jacques Chirac instructed to be drawn up after his meeting with President Yushchenko. Ukraine should carry out reforms and bring its law into line with EU standards. France is now studying the possibility of drawing Ukraine into cooperation as part of the so-called Weimar Triangle (France-Germany-Poland) to tackle the problems of justice, internal affairs and border control. A few years ago it was Paris that denied our country this possibility. During her visit, Premier Tymoshenko signed eleven agreements: this means there must be political control over their implementation. Many of these agreements, as well as those that were signed during President Yushchenko’s visit, are letters of intent rather than contracts, and therefore must be filled with concrete content.
As part of a technical assistance program, France has decided to send to Kyiv four governmental advisers in the fields of justice, administrative reform, agriculture, and European integration. The Quai d’Orsay sees no reason why Ukraine should not join the European Union in due time after maximally embracing the EU standards. This is probably the first time that we are hearing such statements. However, one can also hear such phrases as “We are deliberately not saying ‘yes’ or ‘no’ so as to leave room for maneuvering and to capitalize on all possible opportunities.” It is being suggested that issues will be discussed as and when necessary.
French diplomats are inclined to consider the energy sector (especially nuclear power production because 75% of France’s electricity is produced by nuclear power plants) as the most promising field of bilateral cooperation. Among other topics, the two presidents discussed the possibility of France assisting Ukraine in the production of fuel for nuclear power plants. This is a new development that deserves close attention.
France is the first of the “old” EU member states to agree to liberalize the visa regime with Ukraine: privately it was said that Paris is prepared for any relaxation except for visa-free travel, because in this case it is Brussels that must make a decision. This immediately raised several questions: Why have there been no contacts between the interior ministries, customs, and financial intelligence services of the two countries in the past few years, even though effective cooperation has been established in the war against terrorism, crime control, prevention of smuggling, and control of financial flows? The agreement on relaxed visa conditions for some categories of individuals was drawn up last year, but Paris was very reluctant to sign it with the previous Ukrainian government. Earlier this year France announced that it would bring it into force unilaterally on May 1 and propose it to Brussels as a model agreement for this range of relations between the EU and Ukraine. Now the question is to help Ukraine equip its border points with electronic devices, as was done in the Baltic states. The French have also helped Ukraine enter the European political space: Our Ukraine ended up there thanks to an agreement with the ruling party UMP (Union pour un Mouvement Populaire) and the Socialist Party thanks to the cooperation with French socialists. There is a very strong desire to cooperate with Ukrainian entrepreneurs on the part of the MEDEF, the French counterpart of the Ukrainian League of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. There are plans to hold a Day of Ukraine on November 30 in the National Assembly, where one of Ukraine’s top officials will deliver a speech. Ukraine’s ambassador Mr. Serheyev said he is arranging to hold Days of Ukraine in the Senate in September. Arnaud Dubien, an expert from the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), is inclined to think that Ambassador Serheyev’s activity is also a major factor that has contributed to the growing interest in Ukraine. Incidentally, there was no Ukrainian ambassador in Paris for almost two years before his appointment.
Still, any optimism should be tempered by caution. There are certain factors and “underwater reefs” that Mr. Dubien thinks may affect France’s support for the idea of Ukraine’s EU membership even if it meets all the requirements. On the one hand, many people, even at France’s foreign ministry, agree that President Chirac’s foreign policy is hopelessly outdated. As a matter of fact, France and Ukraine should have established the kind of relationship they have now years ago. The “Russian factor” will always exert some influence, although “not a very strong one,” as our French interlocutors tried to put across to us. The Quai d’Orsay seems to be sincere in its confidence that the democratization of Ukraine and its closer association with European life can help democratize Russia. Still, President Chirac is asking everyone not to aggravate “the Russian bear.” He is showering compliments on Vladimir Putin and trying to turn Europe into a rival of the United States (with limited success, if any).
France recently experienced a trauma: the fiasco of the constitutional referendum and failure to win the bid to host the 2012 Olympics. It turns out that the French are sore losers. Meanwhile, the many words of affection for Ukraine have yet to be converted into concrete projects of cooperation. There is a danger that the current favorable situation will be “chatted into failure.” There is almost no progress in the spheres of culture and tourism. There are a lot of problems to resolve, but we should not forget that under any circumstances France remains one of the main pillars of the EU.
