Forecast from an Optimist

“Ukraine is a country where only optimists can achieve something. The Polish president is that kind of person, and we believe that the rerun of the elections in Ukraine will be fair. In view of recent events we believe that the probability of any manipulations is minimal,” said Polish Ambassador to Ukraine Marek Ziolkowski, commenting on speculations that the scenario of the November 21 runoff elections might be repeated on December 26. On the eve of the “celebration of democracy” — that’s what Mr. Ziolkowski calls the elections in general and preparations for the rerun of the runoff in particular — the Polish diplomat offered his view of the latest events in Ukraine and the impact of the European mediators’ mission with the participation of Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski.

According to Mr. Ziolkowski, the mediators’ overriding goal was to help the parties to the conflict “find a way to defuse the political crisis touched off by unfair elections.” As he put it, the most difficult part was the beginning of the talks, since these were “talks about talks,” i.e., the European politicians were trying to bring the two sides to the table. Mr. Ziolkowski believes that the mediating mission that ended on December 6 was successful in view of the ruling by Ukraine’s Supreme Court: it proved the “possibility of resolving the conflict within the legislative space of Ukraine” and “helped Ukrainian politicians to set the situation right.”

Commenting on Viktor Yanukovych’s allegations to the effect that the mediators interfered with Ukraine’s internal affairs, the diplomat said, “There can be no talk of interference in Ukraine’s internal affairs when the issue is unfair elections. This fact has been recognized in political and legal terms in Ukraine. Moreover, the mediators had a limited mandate. They only had to talk the politicians into beginning negotiations on the way to resolving the problems.”

Discussing how Poland felt about the opposition’s failure to observe some of the arrangements reached during the talks, in particular its obligation to call off the blockade of the Presidential Administration, Mr. Ziolkowski pointed out that “the parties signed a protocol, which was no international covenant. Therefore, it makes no sense to check what was fulfilled and when. The main consideration was avoiding the use of force. Meanwhile, observed and unobserved arrangements are facts for historians.”

Commenting on separatist sentiments in Ukraine, the diplomat said that “there is no better recipe against them than fair elections.” In his view, “There is more unity in Ukraine than politicians are saying.”

Speaking about the prospects for Ukraine’s cooperation with the EU and the possibilities for its future membership, Mr. Ambassador pointed out that before the rerun of the elections, any dialog is out of the question and that everything will depend on the conduct of the elections. Answering a question from The Day, he noted that “all statements from Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko about the hopes for closer cooperation with the EU are very serious and real. Theoretically, there is a high probability that Ukraine will receive market economy status after the inauguration of the new president. However, everything will depend on how active Ukraine is in its movement toward the WTO. Unless Ukraine joins this organization, we will not accomplish much even if we work in concert. In principle, Ukraine might do this in two years’ time, thereby laying the groundwork for its relationship with the EU. We will press for intensive consultations on a high level with European politicians and representatives of other international organizations to help the horizons of Ukraine’s policy expand even further. For example, today’s EU summit will address the EU policy with respect to Ukraine, and Poland will seek to conclude the discussions by passing some specific document.”

Commenting on the Ukrainian parliament’s decision to withdraw the Ukrainian peacekeeping force from Iraq, Mr. Ambassador said, “Much like the Polish forces, the Ukrainian forces are carrying out their mission in Iraq with a plan to withdraw in the future. Therefore, such a decision by the Ukrainian parliament didn’t surprise anyone in Poland. However, the president of Ukraine has the final say on whether to withdraw the forces. He hasn’t made this decision yet.”

Summing up the results of the Year of Poland in Ukraine, Mr. Ziolkowski noted that it has taken place “against the background of the orange revolution,” which proved to be a major surprise. The Poles weren’t even expecting to grow so close to Ukraine. The latest events have stimulated more lively contacts between various regions of the two countries. “The current rapport between the two nations cannot even be measured, and this is the main result,” he said.