Ukraine — NATO: Chances and Risks of Closer Acquaintance

Last year’s informal Ukrainian-NATO consultations in Berlin resulted in the National Security and Defense Council’s resolution outlining a Ukrainian strategy aimed at complete integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures, meaning NATO. As for the Washington consultations (May 4-5), NATO functionaries are convinced that no big decisions will be made, for any such decisions would be premature. Meanwhile, both sides attach considerable importance to the fact that the top level conference on Ukrainian-NATO cooperation, its tasks and achievements, was held in Washington, and that US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld took part. The Ukrainian delegation was headed by NSDC Secretary Yevhen Marchuk and included Defense Minister Volodymyr Shkidchenko, head of the Euro-Atlantic Integration Center Volodymyr Horbulin, and Vice Speaker Oleksandr Zinchenko. The NATO delegation was headed by NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson. Among those present were the defense ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Turkey, Slovenia, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Norway; ambassadors of member countries, heads of NATO structures, and Zbigniew Brzezinski on behalf of the organizer, the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Such high-level representation can be regarded as evidence of serious intent. The Ukrainian side wanted to convince NATO that Kyiv is moving toward its objective, albeit not always as it should, and is adhering to its action and target plans.

The Day was told by a NATO official that the alliance wanted to get back to constructive relations with Ukraine and see what it could do to help this country implement the action plan and carry out reforms as soon as possible, using NATO countries’ experience. Yevhen Marchuk pointed out at a news conference that the discussions were friendly, although not always “sweet,” adding that the conference was important in deepening mutual confidence and that the Ukrainian delegation listened carefully to the proposals and criticism. Later it transpired that everything addressed the defense reform in Ukraine, among other things, proceeded from the experience of NATO member states.

Both sides described the overall atmosphere as positive. George Robertson stated that Ukrainian-NATO cooperation has always been high on the list of NATO strategic priorities; that there were certain problems in Ukrainian- NATO relations last year, but that all these problems are history, and both sides are moving ahead. He stressed that the US government is making every effort to reach its objective on the road to Euro-Atlantic integration. NATO people say that this cooperation is receiving a fresh impetus. Among other things, the conference discussed ways to enhance global security and stability by intensifying cooperation. While NATO welcomes Ukraine’s desire to intensify Euro-Atlantic integration, inviting this country to join the alliance is not on the agenda. NATO further believes that outlining a timeframe or milestones on that road would not be a correct approach. Once again Lord Robertson declared that NATO has not received any membership request from Ukraine and that the alliance must first complete the process of admitting seven countries invited to join NATO at the Prague summit (i.e., Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Romania). Yevhen Marchuk, in turn, pointed out that, before applying for membership, Ukraine must carry out the action and target plans, proceed to implement the membership action plan, observe internal procedures, and secure support from at least 50% plus one of the member states.

NATO admits that Ukraine is making perfectly good progress in its defense reform, but stresses that the problems of democracy, media freedom, along with noninterference in the economy and business by the state remain as relevant as earlier. Once again Ukraine is led to understand that NATO and the EU will closely follow its political process, primarily the presidential campaign in 2004, and that its being kept democratic and its outcome will be of great importance — as was the case with Slovakia.

At present, NATO believes its number one priority is to become involved in international operations in Afghanistan and adopt a uniform stand with regard to Iraq after the war. There are indications that Ukraine might have a good chance there. Warsaw has made it clear that a Ukrainian contingent could be deployed in the Polish zone of Iraq. Yevhen Marchuk noted that the topic was not discussed at the conference in Washington. The Day, however, learned from its sources that the topic was discussed unofficially and that it might well turn out to be the focal point of US- Ukrainian relations. A decision will have to be made in any case, and it will be risky, whatever the circumstances. Among the factors favoring the deployment of a Ukrainian contingent is the improving Kyiv-Washington climate and political support from the United States. There could be negative factors and risks, specifically the absence of unanimity among NATO countries on the issue, also the possibility of complications in Moscow. In addition, a positive decision would not mean that all problems are solved. Be it as it may, there will be commitments to be honored. A detailed analysis will commence shortly. A team of experts will study Ukraine’s progress in performing the action and target plans as of May 15. Then the matter will be discussed by the Ukraine-NATO Commission, and finally by a meeting of NATO ministers in Madrid. This means that there is still time.

Zbigniew Brzezinski noted prior to the conference that NATO is approaching the third round — after the Warsaw stage of NATO readjustments, following the Cold War and decision to expand eastward, and the second Vilnius round, when EU and NATO borders changed almost simultaneously — which is historically unavoidable and which will focus on Ukraine. For the time being, it was stressed in Washington, the current stage is still one of getting to know each other better, rather than engagement. The inferences will largely depend on Ukraine’s sincerity.

INCIDENTALLY

On May 6 Markiyan Lubkivsky, head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s press service, described the topics discussed by the NATO conference in Washington and the atmosphere as “extremely positive.” He noted that the conference in discussing Ukrainian- NATO relations had “attracted considerable attention from the American political elite.” During the conference, NSDC Secretary Yevhen Marchuk met with US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. Markiyan Lubkivsky further informed the public that the Foreign Ministry had received proposals concerning the participation of Ukrainian units in the stabilization forces in Iraq: “We already have pertinent proposals that are being carefully studied. We are also working on such proposals and studying the possibility of our participation. There are intensive consultations with the US. Without doubt, Ukraine has something to offer, and our partners know this.” Ukraine took part in an April 30 meeting in London of countries that might serve as potential participants in the stabilization forces in Iraq. Some media reports say Iraq will be divided into at least three zones controlled by the US, UK, and Poland. President Aleksander Kwasniewski told journalists that Poland is negotiating Ukrainian participation in the stabilization forces.

The Editors wish to thank the NATO Information and Documentation Center in Ukraine for assistance in the preparation of this feature.