Apropos of Ukraine’s foreign policy

Kyiv recently hosted a meeting of the Strategic Discussion Club on the topic “National Security of Ukraine in the Context of Recent Changes in Foreign and Domestic Policy.” The Day asked Alyona GETMANCHUK, director of the Institute of World Policy (Kyiv), to comment on the topicality of national security in regard to Ukraine; also share her views on media reports concerning the Ukrainian president’s canceled visit to Moscow, allegedly to sign agreements that would make Ukraine a member of the Customs Union.

“Moscow and Kyiv obviously have different views on this document [the Customs Union. – Ed.] and the obligations of the signatories. I believe that the Ukrainian side – I mean President Viktor Yanukovych – tried to outsmart President Vladimir Putin by signing a document that would contain no obligations and subsequently allow Yanukovych to have enough room for maneuver when coping with the European Union, among other things. This had to be done after the scandalous Kharkiv accords, when Putin got the better of the Ukrainian political leadership by offering a discount that would later turn out to be sham. Putin wants a contract, with all terms and conditions clearly defined; he doesn’t want political phraseology. He wants Ukraine to finally alter its European course.

”Perhaps some efforts made by Yanukovych et al, in regard to the Customs Union, could be viewed as Ukraine’s refusal to move further in the direction of Europe?

“I think that making a deal with Russia – I mean gas supplies – is the highest priority for Yanukovych and his team. They will have to work hard to avoid all political and geopolitical traps, including the Association Agreement. They will have to solve the EU issue. In other words, they will have to cope with every problem once it emerges, considering that the EU has given Ukraine a head start. An agreement is very likely to be signed during the Vilnius summit, although one has to bear in mind the fact that none of the Ukrainian heads of state have been able to outsmart their Russian counterparts.”

Some “upstairs” believe that Ukraine can accept certain terms and conditions of the Customs Union. Some of them admit that Russia wants Ukraine as a member of this union, to take part in a number of projects, including the AN-70 one.

“Some of those ‘upstairs’ believe that the Customs Union spells economy; they have tried to convince Ukrainians that this is nothing but economy, that this actually determined their attitude. The trouble is that Russia has an absolutely different view on the Customs Union, and that the economic aspect is anything but priority for the Kremlin.”

Ukrainian MP Leonid Kozhara (Party of Regions) commented on Yanukovych’s canceled visit to Moscow, saying that Ukraine cannot be a member of the Customs Union. Does this mean that the ruling party is against this membership?

“They are going through the motions of joining the Customs Union while being loath to join it. I don’t think that this will deceive Putin, who is a smart politician. Joining the Customs Union is a long process and I believe that the Ukrainian political leadership will do its best to prolong it, with lots of red tape, hoping to find a way to withdraw at a certain stage – when offered a better opportunity. I also believe that Putin will make every effort to have Ukraine as a member of the union as soon as absolutely possible, red tape notwithstanding. In fact, I believe that was why Yanukovych’s visit was canceled. Putin wants to make sure Ukraine will make no U-turns on this road.”

In an interview with The Hindu (December 10, 2012), Yanukovych said: “We’re currently harmonizing our laws, rules and regulations with those of the Customs Union. It’s a long road but if we don’t do it, our producers will face discrimination and lose the market. Time will show how far we will go in integrating with the Customs Union.” Any comment?

“I guess what Yanukovych and his closest associates actually want is to have as few international obligations as absolutely possible while keeping their governance on an upward curve. This interview is further proof that Yanukovych is aware of the red tape, that this will take time and offer an opportunity of playing one’s own game, the way it happened in Kharkiv when the Black Sea Fleet agreements were signed. Ukraine could have a discount on gas supply now and the contract could be prolonged under another president of Ukraine, but all this takes time and the procedures may be cut short by the incumbent or next head of state. No one will give a hoot about the reasons afterward, because all those ‘upstairs’ in Ukraine are unable to think of several moves ahead.”

Probably those “upstairs” can’t figure out what national security is all about in Ukraine these days. Was this one of the reasons behind the foundation of the Strategic Discussion Club under the aegis of the Institute of World Policy?

“We realized that the national security subject would not be broached [publicly], that it would left to be dealt with by experts; that the Ukrainian public would continue being fed the stuff about the absence of threat to its national sovereignty. If so, why should Ukraine integrate into NATO or seek other national security guarantees? Why all this talk about threats and challenges? We founded the Strategic Discussion Club because the matter of national security has everything to do with foreign policy and civilization.

“If Ukraine decides to bank on the European Union, it will have to measure up to the European standard. If so, the NATO membership point will be back on the political agenda.

“If Ukraine plans to become a member of the Customs Union, it will have to part with NATO, even on the cooperation basis, considering Russia’s negative attitude and close surveillance. In that case the issue of the Collective Security Treaty Organization may well be revived. In other words, it is important for Ukraine to make the right foreign political choice and adopt the right political and national security model. These aspects are intertwined. It’s high time all these subjects were broached and actively discussed.”