Lest Vilnius-2013 become Bucharest-2008

As we approach the summit in Vilnius the tension increases. On the one hand, Russia’s been increasing its external pressure – the Kremlin been active in putting spokes in the wheel of Ukraine-EU relations. On the other hand, there are pro-Russian forces within Ukraine – the so-called “fifth column” (like Viktor Medvedchuk’s “Ukrainian Choice” or Communists), running against European integration course.

 In light of recent events associated with the celebration of the 1,025th anniversary of the Baptism of Kyivan Rus’ it became obvious that the Kremlin’s “soft power” in the form of the “Russian World” does not produce the results expected in Moscow. Joint celebration of Baptism did not meet the great expectations of Vladimir Putin. The plan of absorbing Ukraine in the concept of the “Russian World,” which had high hopes of the Russian president, does not work. Putin’s visit to Kyiv for the official celebration, instead of triumph, showed all the helplessness of the present impact of the GDP on foreign policy of the Ukrainian president.

However, it is still too early to rejoice. Experts predict that in the near future Russia may start acting more decisively in order to prevent the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. Experts also assure that the battle for Ukraine will unfold on several fronts simultaneously. Moreover, the first steps in this direction have already been made. This, in particular, can be seen in the deployment of another trade and economic warfare between the official Moscow and Kyiv in the form of imposing a ban on chocolate products of the Ukrainian company “Roshen” on the territory of the Russian Federation.

It’s no secret for anyone that the owner of the company is a former Foreign Minister of Ukraine, MP Petro Poroshenko – also one of the open supporters of signing the FTA agreement and the Association Agreement with the EU. Therefore, demonstrative closure of the Russian market for the goods of the most public pro-European Ukrainian oligarchs is an alarming signal for a number of other Ukrainian businessmen. This sends a message that if you want to join the EU, you can forget about the Eurasian market. However, Roshen did not wait long to give a response to the Russian Federation. Almost immediately, Ukrainian media reported that the company starts making chocolate products to export to the European Union. In conclusion, the Kremlin once again underestimated Ukrainian oligarchs.

The latter, according to experts, have had enough of the post-Soviet system of playing the big game, have accumulated their capital in different ways, and now want to stick to the standard business rules, which can be provided only by the EU. However, the question is whether the so-called Ukrainian political elite (including oligarchs, who somehow affect the political course of Ukraine) is ready to defend Ukraine’s European choice, as least in the light of their own commercial interests? What will Russia do to wreck signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU? What other problems can arise from the approaching summit in Vilnius and will Vilnius-2013 become another unused opportunity, the way it was with Bucharest-2008, when Russia affected some European leaders and the MAP was not granted to Ukraine? The Day’s experts tried to find the answers to these questions.

COMMENTARIES

Svitlana MASHAROVSKA, political scientist:

“First, we are going to see a new media campaign as the summit in Vilnius approaches. There is a possibility of funded ‘mass’ rallies, crusades connected with juvenile justice, and other comic shows. Second, the reason for referendum, which has been haunting Ukraine’s political space for quite a while, will again appear before our eyes. Considering this, a new split of the society and actualization of anti-European myths may become an internal problem. In this context the low percentage of Ukrainians who have seen Europe with their own eyes and are able to distinguish between reality and propaganda cliches is playing against us, too.

“So, in this struggle Russia will use all available instruments of pressure, economic, political, religious, and cultural. Apart from the trade war which our neighbors have already waged against us, they will probably focus the attention of EU officials on the Yulia Tymoshenko question, which is currently a true crack in armor of Ukrainian Eurointegrational progress. The structure of UOC MP will play its role too by new calls upon religious, spiritual, and supranational unity in its sermons.

“I don’t think the scenario of the Bucharest summit five years ago will repeat. Since 2008 the relations between Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel have somewhat transformed, so we cannot speak about a completely monolithic stand this time. All the more so European leaders and EU top officers are enough interested in rapprochement with Ukraine and need to get more than weighty reasons to change their stand. In other words, in spite of all the efforts taken by the RF, only Ukraine can outplay itself on its way to association.

“The events connected with Roshen Company are a demonstrative ‘whipping’ and a way to exert pressure above all on the position of oligarchs. On the part of Russia that was a signal that could influence, in particular, the stand of various political groups and information policy of TV channels on the eve of the autumn campaign connected with the Vilnius Summit. The RF leadership has taken these steps also because Ukrainian establishment has shown considerable inclination to the European vector. The question whether the calculations of possible incomes that will result from entering into the European market will be a more powerful reasoning than the prospect of losing the export to Russia does not have an unequivocal answer.”

Dietmar STUEDEMANN, former ambassador of Germany to Ukraine:

“Indeed, Ukraine has not fulfilled the main rules and principles of the European Union, especially in what concerns the rule of law. But Ukrainian political leadership can easily prove that it is making steps necessary to overcome this deficit.

“I support signing the Association Agreement and Free Trade Area Agreement in Vilnius. My many-year experience of work on various positions in many countries shows that the final steps towards democratization and modernization that is badly needed by your country can be easier supported by Europeans, when relations between Ukraine and the EU are based on common, legally binding ground.

“The European leaders, including, of course, the chancellor of Germany, are aware of the importance of signing these agreements in Vilnius. But as for me, it is risky and wrong to shift the responsibility only on the Europeans. Ukraine must fulfill its role. One should not mix the existing situation with NATO’s decision of 2008 in Bucharest. The then decision was approved based on the situation in Georgia and Ukraine back then. I am sure that Ukraine is able to achieve progress in all spheres of transformations where you are still lagging behind. This is a historical task for your leadership and all Ukrainians. Everything is very simple: there’s no alternative. You cannot go back to the past. Even President Putin has to understand this.”