The patient is rather alive than dead

This year’s elections, whatever their results are, are a kind of sociology of the society’s condition. There have been some twists, including serious violations of the elections legislation – abuse of the administrative resource, the so called “merry-go-round,” bribing of the voters, intimidation, etc. But one should keep in mind that the opposition was among those who blessed the current rules of elections. It should only be recalled how the election commissions were formed, when neither UDAR, nor Freedom had any representatives in the commissions whatsoever, whereas some unknown party Youth to Power!, having nominated only one majoritarian candidate, was allowed to have representatives in all the 225 district commissions.

Therefore it is no surprise that the OSCE observers assessed the process of voting and counting of the votes on the whole in a positive way, whereas they assessed negatively the process of establishing the votes because it was insufficiently transparent. “Considering the abuse of power, and the excessive role of money in this election, democratic progress appears to have reversed in Ukraine,” said Walburga Habsburg Douglas, the special coordinator who led the OSCE short-term election observation mission and the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly delegation.

What are the peculiarities of the results of elections 2012? Indisputably, Freedom’s results are sensation number one. A couple of days ago everyone, including sociologists, argued whether the nationalists would receive the minimum number of votes, five percent. As a result, according to the data of five exit polls, Freedom has received 11-12 percent of the votes. Even the power did not expect this to happen. Regionnaires in the Party of Regions press center, traditionally located in Kyiv’s hotel Interkontinental, did not hide their surprise. “This result is higher than we expected,” Serhii Tihipko says. “For me this is proof of the fact that people who did not choose the United Opposition voted for Freedom. On the whole, I think the uniting of the opposition did not work out. It played into Freedom’s hands.”

Freedom did surprise the next day after the elections, too. According to the data published on the official website of the Central Election Commission (TsVK), the majority of Ukrainians abroad voted for Freedom – 23.63 percent. The Party of Regions came second with the result of 23.27 percent, and the third is Vitali Klitschko’s UDAR, 22.11 percent. Fatherland and Communist Party received 19.85 and 3.46 percent, respectively. These are the data from 116 election districts, which have been 100 percent processed by the TsVK.

The fact that the United Opposition has lost the first place to the Party of Regions can be called another peculiarity of this year’s elections. According to exit polls, the ruling part has received over 30 percent, and the opposition – approximately 23 percent. The uniting of Fatherland, Front of Changes, and other small opposition parties has not yielded the results and effects promised many times by their leaders. The Day has many times pointed out their mistakes, especially in what refers to forming the election lists. Moreover, in the end of the election campaign the struggle for the second place became especially acute. Some sociological data gave the second place to Klitschko’s political force. If it happened so, the result of the United Opposition could be considered a fiasco, but it did not happen so. Fatherland has saved its face. The UDAR Party, according to the data of the exit polls over the districts has received approximately 15 percent of the votes.

OLEKSANDR YEFREMOV: “IT WILL BE HARD FOR US TO HOLD NEGOTIATIONS WITH FREEDOM PARTY”

Mr. Yefremov, were you surprised with the results?

“No, I wasn’t surprised with the results. We expected to receive the third of the votes. And with the bonuses that we will receive, we will be able to form the majority in the parliament.”

Do you mean the deputies elected in single mandate constituencies by bonuses?

“By bonuses I mean votes that are not distributed – usually it is from 7 to 10 percent of the votes, later they are distributed in proportion to the gained votes among the political forces.

“We need partners. There are majority constituencies’ candidates who will come into the parliament. Then we will hold negotiations with the political forces presented in the parliament.”

What can you say about the result of the Freedom Party?

“This is a surprising result. Sociologists did not predict such numbers for them. Apparently, the distrust to the United Opposition was expressed in supporting Freedom.”

With whom you won’t negotiate in the new parliament for sure?

“I think it will be hard for us to hold negotiations with Freedom Party, but the rest of the political forces are possible options.”

Including the United Opposition?

“Why not. Fatherland also has many different members.”

What changes can be expected in the near future in the parliament?

“What concerns the legislation, we are conducting reforms. There are still many problems to be solved. For example, we still have legislation that was adopted back in 1963 in the Soviet Union. CIS countries have adopted different laws long time ago and we are only now about to change them. We have a whole series of codes, which we need to pass.”

VITALI KLITSCHKO: “TODAY WE HAVE THE ANSWER ABOUT THE SERIOUSNESS OF OUR PARTY”

Mr. Klitschko, have the results come up to your expectations?

“Previously I have said that our political force expects at least 15 percent of the vote. For now, the results of our political force are within this range. I would like to note that we were counting on people who did not make up their minds and made their choice on The Day of the voting.”

You never named parties with which you plan to coordinate actions in the parliament. What will it be?

“Today, our greatest efforts are paid to defend the results of the votes so there would be no fraud. I would like again to repeat that it is still too soon to talk about signing any agreements with the United Opposition and Freedom Party. First, we need to get the results, then we have to protect it, and only after it’s done we can sit down and talk about working together in the future parliament. At the present moment, we can already say with whom we are ready to hold negotiations – these are the parties that suggest the democratic development of the country. In order to do this we made a plan of actions, which contains three key positions. The first is fighting against corruption, the second – fighting against the current government’s irresponsibility, and the third – is facilitating local government in Ukraine. For sure, we will not cooperate with the Party of Regions and the Communist Party.”

The radicalism of the Freedom Party does not scare you?

“There is a general concern. We can agree with many things suggested by the Freedom Party, but there are few points we can’t support. We are willing to work and cooperate in areas that protect the interests of Ukraine.”

How would you rate your chances in majority constituencies?

“There is serious fight in progress in majority districts. There were lots of violations that are hard to record. Where it is possible we record such violations and report them to police. Our political force did everything to stop any manipulation of votes. We count on 15 to 20 majority constituency deputies.”

Are you going to run for president?

“A few months ago a party led by a world champion in boxing caused only smiles. After some time these smiles disappeared and discussion began whether this party would be able to enter the parliament. At the present moment, we have a clear answer to that question. What concerns the presidential elections, today is too early to talk about it. The rest is merely speculations.”

How do you picture yourself in the new parliament?

“I want to emphasize that we have come into politics not for the numbers or in order to be either liked or disliked. We came into politics to change the rules, to make them transparent. Today, more than 50 percent of Ukrainians do not trust any politician or any political force. The reasons for that appeared in the previous years, when politicians served only financial and industrial groups, their parties, and individual personalities. Nobody cared for the interests of the ordinary citizens. Politics must protect the state interests and the interests of the citizens.

“I came into politics not for some high state positions, but in order to change the standard of living. In this regard, we are lagging behind many other countries, even those that were at the same level with us in the early 1990s. Positions can only be a tool for achieving goals.”

ANDRII SHEVCHENKO: “WE’VE FAILED TO FIND THE RIGHT KIND OF WORDS, THAT’S OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM”

Mr. Shevchenko, how do you feel about the outcome of the parliamentary election campaign?

“Even though the Party of Regions is in the lead, I believe that most Ukrainians aren’t supporting this party, just as they are opposed to the current administration’s policy. All things considered, Fatherland, UDAR, and Freedom are on an upward curve. I also think that Freedom’s good ratings are due to its collaboration with Fatherland. This is synergy that shows a whole new level of political culture, a possibility of cooperation and gaining tangible results. We are happy about Freedom’s success. We’ll need it in our struggle against the current regime in parliament.

“Indeed, some spin doctors are in a blue mood today – I mean those who talked President Yanukovych into pulling off that language stunt. Freedom’s ratings are the result of that stupid political maneuver. They had expected it to promote the Party of Regions. Instead, they got Freedom. Serves them right.”

After Fatherland and Front of Changes got united, placing first was number-one on the agenda. What happened?

“Regrettably, another unreachable political goal. We had carried out our minimum mission aimed at stopping Yanukovych’s onslaught, preventing the constitutional majority, and amendments to the Constitution that would prohibit direct presidential election. We did it. The maximum mission – forming the parliamentary majority – is easier said than done. All will depend on the outcome of elections in the single-member electoral districts. I think we’ll see the majority after the next Verkhovna Rada is called to order.”

PoR campaign HQ believes the ruling party will have the majority in parliament, owing to the majoritarian electoral districts. Does this mean that you have also lost these electoral districts?

“We can be optimistic about the outcome in one-third of these districts. The second-third will be won by the Party of Regions, but there remains the rest of the electorate and their votes will be fought for.”

Are you aware of a serious confrontation between Fatherland and UDAR that has become manifest of late?

“Several weeks ago our sociologists succeeded in making us nervous, but I was sure that our only first-place opponent would be the Party of Regions. Vitali Klitschko has a special kind of electorate. We’d known that most of his devotees were undisciplined young people who wouldn’t care to cast their ballots on time. In fact, this is a traditional problem with Vitali; it was self-evident during the previous municipal elections in Kyiv. I also think that Vitali’s refusal to make a coalition agreement with the joint opposition and Freedom is to be considered. His electorate wanted a straight answer to a straight question.”

What changes do you expect in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine?

“We can’t expect an effective administration for as long as it is formed by Viktor Yanukovych. We can only expect the Cabinet to be somewhat less odious than the current one, but hardly likely, considering that this cabinet is made up of yes-men selected by the president. In terms of economy, this is a huge central-budget-money-laundering machine. Sad but true, no administration formed by Yanukovych, given the powers, will be effective.”

What about Yatseniuk becoming prime minister?

“We rule out the possibility of joining the administration under this constitutional model, because effective cooperation is impossible. We aren’t naive enough to play such silly games. Our objective is to prevent criminal schemes from being realized in parliament; we will make preparations for the presidential campaign, and eventually form a strong team to put Ukraine back on the democratic European road.”