Super multi-vector policy

On August 25 Viktor Yanukovych met the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. It has been their second meeting over the last month and a half. However, the “working trip” of the Ukrainian president to Russia was less resonant than Vladimir Putin’s first visit to Ukraine within his third presidential term. Probably, one of the reasons for this is that not any important public declaration was made, which, however, does not automatically mean the absence of important private agreements. According to ITAR-TASS, Viktor Yanukovych declared once again that Ukraine would like to change its position in the relations with Russia concerning the gas issue. “Maybe today we will have some time to talk about gas. This issue is an evergreen in our relations and will always be very important,” the Ukrainian president emphasized. However, the edition Komersant-Ukraina informed, referring to a high-ranking source in the department of oil, gas and oil-refining industry at the Ministry of Energy, that not any important agreement in the gas sphere was achieved during the negotiations between Yanukovych and Putin: Russia voiced the same political offers about the Customs Union.

However, frequent meetings of the Ukrainian president with his Russian counterpart without any constructive dialog with Europe reminds Leonid Kuchma’s second presidential term when he could not go anywhere except the CIS countries. The recent visit was also special as just before it happened Ukraine had extradited to Russia Ilya Pyazin who is one of the suspects of the attempt upon Vladimir Putin. On August 20 the Odesa Oblast Appeal Court found legal the order of the Prosecutor General about Pyazin’s extradition to Russia. Did we have to make Putin such a favor? The more that Ukraine did not receive anything in exchange as it had been expected. Besides, the president declared that “we would like to slightly change our position in relations with Russia.” What does this change mean? After the agreements signed in Kharkiv and the language law, which turned to be ineffective, these words sound threatening.

One more “interesting” declaration by Viktor Yanukovych: Ukraine aspires to getting the observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Association (SCO). “We would like you to be one of our partners in the SCO and we would like to become observers in this organization to be able to participate in the integration processes inside the organization,” Yanukovych said to Putin, as reported by Interfax.

By the way, the Ukrainian foreign minister Kostiantyn Hryshchenko has written in his column for Den that China is now among the interests of Ukraine.

We remind our readers that the main players of the SCO created not long ago, on June 15, 2001 are Russia and China. Taking into account the fact that Ukraine is ready to get a loan of three and a half billion dollars from China, it is clear that the country is being slowly involved into the Asian world. It is clear why Russia needs it. And we can even assume which goals China and the Ukrainian government have. As the contributor of Den Yuri Raikhel wrote in his article called “The Ukrainian attraction of China”: “In our officials’ opinion getting this law is extremely important since China does not set any conditions does not require to control the proper use of the money given. In the conditions of quite difficult economic situation and diminishing reserve assets of the Ukrainian National Bank it is just a godsend. It is not the IMF with its strict requirements to pay back the loan and the interest…” As for Beijing, “it finds it more and more difficult to feed its enormous population during the progressing food crisis. That is why Ukraine with its enormous agricultural potential is becoming China’s intense interest. So, giving a loan now on preferential terms the Chinese government, which can be really hard, counts on significant economic and political dividends in the future.”

However, it is unclear what Ukraine will win from this turn to the East. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not an eastern alternative of the EU. As Vitalii Portnikov wrote in his column at the website NEWSru.ua, the SCO remains the organization of the near-border cooperation. It was created to solve the problems on the Chinese border. Is it the time to consider having a common border with China?

What does the Ukrainian president want to say? During his speech on the Independence Day in the Ukraina palace Viktor Yanukovych declared that “we will stick to the European choice in our foreign policy. However, we will never accept the integration if we have to lose our independence, make economic or territorial concessions or allow interfering in our home affairs... At the same time we should remember that the relations of Ukraine and the CIS countries are extremely important for us, in particular with our biggest commerce partner and neighbor Russia. We have to comprehensively develop the cooperation with our CIS partners since there we have the largest market for Ukrainian goods. So, we should not neglect the integration processes happening there.”

So, what does the president mean by “changing positions” with Russia? What is behind this super multi-vector policy? What does the declaration about the SCO mean? We have asked the experts of Den.

“China intends to use Ukraine as a bridgehead of sorts”

Andrei KIRILLOV, chief of the ITAR-TASS office in China:

“China has tremendous interests in the post-Soviet space. China regards it as a gigantic market for its products. The former USSR countries have been eagerly consuming Chinese goods, which is very important for China’s market economy. While Western countries often set up barriers in trade with China, the post-Soviet space offers more favorable conditions. It is a case of bilateral interest: on the one hand, China is tapping resources of the former USSR countries – it is not only about Russia, but also about the Central Asian countries that are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. On the other hand, CIS countries offer China a vast market.

“Ukraine also presents another specific interest for China. Firstly, China is interested in Ukrainian technologies, for Ukraine was one of the scientifically and technologically most advanced republics in the former USSR. It has a tremendous technological potential in the sectors which China is interested in, including aircraft construction and shipbuilding.

“China also intends to use Ukraine as a bridgehead of sorts for the development of its economic relations with Western and Central Europe. Unfortunately, China is coming into some hurdles set up by EU countries and the US. From this angle, China is greatly interested in cooperation with Ukraine. Now that China wants to export not only its products, but also its capitals, cooperation with Ukraine is very interesting for it. Naturally, investment cooperation with Ukraine is also important for China.

“China is expected to take quite a positive attitude to the idea of Ukraine joining the SCO as an observer. This will promote integration-oriented links between China and the neighboring friendly countries. In addition, China is also interested in the questions of transportation, etc. China does not hide being economically and politically interested in Ukraine. The SCO is an organization of multilateral cooperation and economic partnership in a number of sectors. The Chinese would like to see the SCO strengthened, so they support the idea of its gradual expansion. Ukraine quite fits in with these requirements.”

What specific features of cooperation with China would you single out, taking into account that country’s expansionist interests? What should Ukraine know about China in real terms?

“By expansionism we usually mean certain enlargement at the expense of somebody else’s interests. This is unlikely to pose a threat to Ukraine. And, in general, these threats are grossly exaggerated. Chinese penetration into the neighboring countries, the seizure of some economic bridgeheads, etc. are a phobia rather than a real threat. From this angle, it is the US that is supposed to worry because about 20 million Chinese reside there now. There are also very many Chinese in Canada. There are much fewer of them in Russia and other countries, but these countries are still going to see China’s demographic presence increased – it is the trend of our times. Everything depends here on adequate organization, although it is practically impossible to resist this.

“China will maintain generally peaceful and mutually beneficial cooperation with the SCO and former Soviet republics. It is difficult to imagine the development of the Russian Far East without Chinese capital, equipment, and resources. Other countries can also make use of the Chinese equipment and its rather high-skilled and well-organized labor. It is quite an acceptable option for the post-Soviet countries because they do not have big capitals at their disposal but can, instead, buy the good Chinese equipment.

“And, finally, the Chinese electronics. Russia is buying it in very large quantities, as does Ukraine and other countries.

“As for investment cooperation, it is a very good time now for Chinese investments. Having a gold and hard currency reserve of about 3 trillion dollars, the Chinese are interested in not so much conserving it as using it outside the country.”

What is the SCO based on?

“The SCO was originally the result of the Sino-Soviet border negotiations. Oddly enough, those negotiations lasted for a very long time, about 30 years, and finished right at the moment when the USSR collapsed and independent states were formed on its territory. The first stage of the negotiations resulted in the establishment of a mechanism of military and political confidence and cooperation as part of the joint struggle against such dangerous challenges as terrorism, extremism, and separatism. But, as SCO leaders understood, this alliance, which includes six countries now, allows the member states not only to build up military and political confidence, but also to intensify cooperation in the economy and many other fields. Consultations are now underway in many areas, such as research, culture, education, etc. SCO members keep meeting at the ministerial level and developing joint projects. Yet military and political trust (the original SCO foundation) remains a key component of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s platform. This is what I can say about the SCO member states. But it is a multilevel organization which comprises not only the six member states, but also some observer and partner countries. The current SCO strategy is that these countries can take part in many fields of SCO cooperation, even though they are not member states. Among these countries are India, Pakistan, Mongolia, Iran, Belarus, and Sri Lanka. It is a serious and promising organization that comprises almost a half of humankind. Ukraine would reap a great deal of benefit from joining the SCO.”

“THE PRO-ASIAN VECTOR WILL BE ASSUMING A CLEAR SHAPE”

Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, political scientist; professor, Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University:

“This statement of Yanukovych can be regarded as a return to Russia – in terms of foreign and domestic policies. Until now, the European vector remained the official course which was also proclaimed in the president’s pre-election program. We could see that the current government was trying to keep to this vector for two years. However, two essential factors stood in the way. The first is that, although Ukraine’s EU membership was declared as a goal, this integration did not fully serve the interests of the current pro-governmental class. As for economic interests, they fully fitted in with European integration. But this kind of integration ran counter to values. This project of European integration was deprived of European values on which the EU is based. This problem not only stopped Ukraine’s integration, but is also increasingly bringing this country into international isolation, and the EU has begun to exert pressure on Ukraine. So when Ukraine finds itself in this isolation, all it can do is move in the reverse direction. Under this pressure, Ukraine is making a U-turn towards Russia. What also contributes to this are the reforms aimed at modernizing Ukraine on an authoritarian basis. Hence is the intention to build a Putin-style political model in Ukraine – it is also a very serious factor that brings the current government closer to Russia. To survive politically, the current Ukrainian leadership is doing its best to come closer to Russia. This also reinforces the vector of Ukraine’s return to Russia.

“The third point of rapprochement with Russia is language and culture. The recently passed language law has in fact exposed the true intentions of the current leadership. The point is that Ukraine as a nation state, as a project based on the Ukrainian nation, does not suit them. The Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians are viewed as a threat to this regime because they essentially form the democratic-minded electorate. This means that, for this regime to be strengthened, the Ukrainians should be transformed into Little Russians. We can already see the outlines of a project like this. This model has already been tried out in the regions that have pronounced Russian as their regional language. The idea is to turn the Ukrainians into a Little Russian stratum so that they lose their Ukrainian identity and a longing for independence and resistance, which will boost the power of the authoritarian regime. This absolutely meets the interests of Russia.

“Naturally, this will make Ukraine follow a pro-Asian (Eurasian) foreign-policy vector which is going to assume a clearer shape all the time. We heard the president say that Ukraine intends to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, even though it is hard to say what Ukraine has anything, in geographical terms, to do with this Asian entity.”

By Ihor SAMOKYSH, The Day