Viktor NEBOZHENKO: There can only be a political, not juridical, solution now

A well-known political scientist, Viktor Nebozhenko, disappeared about two months ago. None of the journalists could reach him on the phone. Some people even assumed that he, like another political scientist, Volodymyr Malinkovych, had left this country.

But it turned out that Nebozhenko had not gone anywhere. He has undergone major heart surgery at the Amosov Institute in Kyiv. “I was in fact dying,” he told this writer, “but now I am well. The doctors did a wonderful job.”

He is back in harness now. Lively, openhearted and cheerful as before, he can please you with his precise, ironic, and sometimes paradoxical thoughts.

Mr. Nebozhenko, this week the Prosecutor General’s Office finally agreed that Yulia Tymoshenko may undergo a course of treatment outside the prison. The Kharkiv-based Ukrzaliznytsia hospital is prepared to receive her. On the one hand, it is a good sign. Word has it this may be her first step towards liberation. But, on the other hand, she is going to stand trial on April 19 as part of another case. What do you think is her further destiny?

“Investigators, prosecutors, and judges are now busy doing a very important job – they are whitewashing the Donetsk criminals who have come into politics. All these Petias of Petersburg, Yuriis of Yenakiievo… People with a horrible record have now become billionaires and need to be embedded, one way or another, into politics and culture. For this reason, robberies and the murder of Shcherban will be ‘fathered’ on her…

“In the Soviet era, whenever a well-known dissident was thrown into prison, there were two options: either he would die inside or be ‘kicked’ abroad. Tymoshenko faces three options. The first: she is killed in prison (and the Presidential Administration in the person of Hanna Herman will so much regret her death). The second: a judicial error is admitted. And the third, Soviet-style, option: she will be ousted abroad.”

But “ousting one abroad” runs counter to our law. Prisoners may not get medical treatment in foreign hospitals.

“There will be an extrajudicial decision. The West has started what may be called a trial of shame. The human rights court in Strasbourg will soon go in session, and the Peace Nobel Prize question will arise in the autumn. This means two blows to our leadership. The West knows very well how to apply indirect pressure methods.”

At the same time, Bankova St. is hyping as a great achievement a 15-minute-long talk between Viktor Yanukovych and Barack Obama in Seoul: look, there’s no isolation!

“So what? I think these are unrelated things. The West may be doing business with our politicians and, at the same time, clamping down on them about democracy issues. The classical example is Obama’s relations with China. Ukraine will not see even in the wildest dreams what the human rights situation is over there!

“Secondly, the West is in general fixated on the problem of nuclear arms proliferation, and Tymoshenko is not the main issue here. Obama, naturally, attaches more importance to geopolitics and US national interests than to human rights in Ukraine,

“But I think it is a deadlock of sorts. Tymoshenko is no longer the problem of Ukraine and Yanukovych – it has spread from Putin to Europe.

“I think Tymoshenko is also feeling very bad now. She went into this court case, as she did into the presidential campaign without a ‘plan B.’ She thought she would somehow solve this problem. But the problem was not solved.”

Last week the clergy urged the president to pardon Tymoshenko. It was announced at the same time that Russian President Medvedev had refused to pardon Khodorkovsky because the latter did not plead to him. In principle, Yanukovych may offer the same argument.

“The institution of amnesty does not call for a personal plea. It is a question of mercy and public opinion pressure. The same applies to Tymoshenko. She may be amnestied without her wish. There can only be a political, not juridical, decision now. It’s a deadlock.”

The opposition has held an important congress. Fatherland and the Front of Changes have said they will go to the polls on the basis of a single list. But my impression is that the comrades-in-arms are no longer waiting for the return of Ms. Tymoshenko. They find it very convenient to use her as a symbol.

“Yes, my impression is the same. When Arsenii Yatseniuk turned to the portrait of Tymoshenko and began to talk with it, this touched me on the raw. It is something abnormal (laughs).”

But still we must give them their due. Very few expected them to agree to form a single list. Do we perhaps see a new political tradition being launched and the “family curse” of Ukrainian democrats being overcome?

“In 2004 they also managed to unite for a minute – shortly before taking power, not before being shot. Even in September nobody could foresee they would come together, but they did.”

The congress heard a significant phrase. Turchynov asked the audience if they were prepared for self-sacrifice. Indeed, many BYuT members will have to be upstaged on this list.

“Some people have been in parliament for 10 years and see that they will not be reelected. Yes, they were together with Tymoshenko; yes, they managed to endure that difficult year; no, they are not defectors. But, nevertheless, Turchynov can no longer take them to the future.

“As for a merger, it is also unnatural, for the BYuT if a one-person party. It is a Tymoshenko party. You see, people have been setting their sights on a personality, not an ideology, for so many years. She is the mum. And then the dad suddenly comes. The mum was thrown into prison, and the dad came back.”

It is a difficult situation – I mean the quota principle. One must “stuff” the Fatherland quota with very many people, while Yatseniuk’s one is rather sparse…

“It is also a conflict. Who will he recruit to fill his sparse quota? He is likely to take young energetic businesspeople. And we will get the old BYuT activists (‘Bolsheviks’), those who picketed the Pechersk Court and fought for Tymoshenko, as well as the young sleek guys who are not going to picket the Kachanivka jail and who have other goals to achieve.

“They are still to show this list. And we will see an old seasoned BYuT soldier and, next to him, a young businessman who is looking askew at his opposition colleague.”

There also are some non-aligned oppositions – Klitschko, Freedom (Svoboda), Korolevska, Hrytsenko… What options can there be here?

“I think Freedom will follow its own way, for it is an ideological organization. It stands very good chances in western Ukraine. Both the BYuT and the Front of Changes will have to cooperate with it in western Ukraine. Like the Party of Regions, Freedom is now a regional organization. They will always have their own electorate in their regions – in five and ten years’ time, no matter what will be going on in this country. And there’s nothing bad about it.

“As for Klitschko, he is too cautiously entering big politics. He finds it difficult to make decisions. He seems to feel uncomfortable against the backdrop of an eloquent and braggart-style Yatseniuk and the ‘grey eminence’ Turchynov.”

Some sociologists claim that Klitschko is absolutely right to be going separately. He can thus win over some votes in the east, on the Party of Region’s electoral field.

“I will say even more: now that Tihipko has gone, many people who want to run away from the south-eastern electoral ghetto are getting this opportunity. It looks a bit indecent, even unmanly, to vote for Tymoshenko in Donetsk and Luhansk. But to vote for a boxer is quite acceptable in a coal-mining area, where there is a cult of masculine force. So they are pushing him to Kyiv so that he rises to the national level.”

By all accounts, mayoral elections in Kyiv will be held in the summer, just following Euro-2012. Klitschko is so far topping the Kyiv rating list, but we can see that Popov also fares very well. It is even presumed that if he were not linked to the Party of Regions (Kyivites do not like it), he could easily win.

“I agree with you. But Popov does not have a political face of his own. He is very cautious. Can you recall the way Omelchenko criticized Kuchma? Or can you recall the somewhat eccentric Chernovetsky? He was a cosmonaut [his popular nickname. – Ed.], but he was our cosmonaut. The only problem with Popov is that he lives in a world of his own.”

In this country, a parliamentary faction leader is more influential than a mayor. Maybe, it would be better if Klitschko were a faction leader?

“I also think so. The mayor who will immediately come into conflict with the City Administration head Popov cannot be efficient. If we get people from different political camps, we will see a tug-of-war.”

Klitschko’s opponents are alleging that he may win the elections and then “dump Kyivites” and go to parliament.

“But this will mean the betrayal of our votes, which Klitschko is very well aware of. We must give him his due: he may not be able to speak as fine as Yatseniuk does, but he can assess his chances very well, and he knows all these arguments.

“I think he should run for a Verkhovna Rada seat and win his five percent – at least because a part of the electorate in central and even eastern Ukraine want to run away from the Party of Regions.”

We are on the eve of Euro-2012. Will soccer have some impact on the elections?

“Yes, it will depoliticize them. It is a very important point which the government is taking into account. The fewer political complaints the Kyivites will have the better chances Popov will stand.

“One more point. In contrast to us, Europe is quietly doing a very important thing. Did you notice where matches are to be played? Kharkiv – Donetsk – Kyiv – Lviv. This is what we lack – unity of Ukraine. Instead of being divided into the right and left banks, the good and the bad, we are united at least in sport, in soccer. Although nobody is paying attention to this, it is also very important. We will be, albeit temporarily, a united country. We will be supporting our team in spite of the match venue. But, so far, we remain divided – in culture, ideology, and sport.”

Europe is also a place of far-from-simple processes. The sorest point is, as before, Greece. The country’s government is auctioning off 12 seaports, 34 airports and airfields. They are selling everything – from casinos to roads. Do you think the country will manage to avoid a default?

“I don’t think there will be a default, even though Greece allowed Europe to do a terrible thing – to divide Europe into the center and the fringes. Spain, Portugal, and Poland are very well aware now of having to remain on the fringes for another 20 years. The proverbial single European space is a bureaucratic form of powerful financial control rather than a much-hyped union of nations, an object of dreams in 1955 to 2005.

“But I think this suits a lot of people. Greece itself does not intend to show the same high performance as do France, Germany, Holland, or Britain. But, on the other hand, it remains in its own niche. They are quite self-sufficient not because they had an ancient civilization but because they have this kind of setup. They have islands, the sea, and the sun. Tourists will all the same continue to visit them.”

But if Poland is the fringe of Europe, what are we?

“We are the next circle of the frontier: Tunisia – Turkey – Israel – Ukraine. But we are bound to be part of Europe. By all means! This is a solved question. And we are no longer united with Russia. We have a classical oligarchic capitalism, while they have state capitalism. So there can be no marriage here.

“I can’t imagine Akhmetov giving away his 17 billion to some Coal Mining Ministry officials, for they would be examining him the way [Russian food quality control chief] Onishchenko examined [Ukrainian-made] cheese, let alone Kolomoisky who can be asked: ‘And why do you have six passports?’ Oligarchs are ready to cooperate with Russia, but they will never opt for a merger.”