The first half is in Kyiv’s favor

Strange as it may sound, both sides, the EU and Ukraine, are satisfied with the results of the summit that took place in Brussels these days. The Ambassador of Ukraine to the EU Kostiantyn Yelisieiev said while commenting on the results of the summit: “We finally left the state of lethargy behind. This summit is the first half, and it was successful. The second half will take place in Vilnius, and we need to do our best for it to be a success too.” According to him, the signing of the Association Agreement will put an end to all the misinterpretations of Ukraine’s desired course.

 Many Ukrainian officials who talked to the EU leaders for four and a half hours understood that Ukraine can talk with the EU as an equal, as a partner, which cannot be said about relations with Russia. Yelisieiev says that the EU will have more influence in relations with Ukraine if the agreement is signed. This is explained by the fact that right after signing the Association Agreement, Ukraine will have to sign a document on temporary implementation of most of the regulations of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.

 The diplomat admits that a lot of problems related to the ratification of this document might emerge in case some countries try to use it to solve their domestic problems.

 Meanwhile, a source from Ukrainian diplomatic circles told The Day about the positive role of the president of the European Parliament [Martin Schulz. – Ed.] in the matter of bringing up the relations between Ukraine and the EU, since they were on the lowest level imaginable last summer. It was also said that Schulz, who was a representative of German social democrats and had a direct contact with Azarov and Yanukovych, thought that Europe lacked strategy and vision. According to him, Ukraine and Turkey can stimulate the development of the EU, and moreover, our country is more important in this sense.

 Yelisieiev also thinks that it might remain unknown if the agreement is to be signed or not up to the very last moment before the summit in Vilnius. This is caused by the fact that some countries do not want Ukraine to sign this document. Also, according to him, a lot will depend on elections in Germany: “The key to signing the agreement lies in Berlin, which lately hides behind the backs of the Netherlands and Switzerland.”

Olha Shumylo-Tapiola, expert at the Brussels Carnegie Center, also thinks that when compared to Moldova, Ukraine is weaker in using the opportunities of cooperation with the European Union, and instead, just like Russia, it demands a special status of relations with Brussels. According to her, the Moldavian embassy does its best to demonstrate their European colleagues the progress that was made in the realization of the first stage of the non-visa regime. They are doing it without any requirements, in particular, they have been issuing biometric passports for a while now.

 By the way, European experts confirmed that European bureaucrats were guided by leading European capitals when it came to matters of external policy. That is why Ukraine’s government, which wants to move Brussels’ position, should not ignore this factor. It is clear that Kyiv cannot neglect the role of the highest legislative body of the EU, which solves a lot of problems, approves the EU budget, and passes resolutions on foreign policy matters, which the European Commission has to take into consideration.

 Meanwhile, it is said in the European Parliament that nobody hoped for such great breakthrough at the EU-Ukraine summit. That is why the mere fact of holding the summit was a sign of progress, said a European MP during an interview with Ukrainian journalists. At the same time, it was also said that it was a critical moment for Ukraine: its future development would depend on the choice it made. According to him, it is very important that Ukraine demonstrates tangible progress in the matter of selective justice and reforms judiciary system in the next two months. Concerning the Tymoshenko case and the way it will affect the assessment of the Cox and Kwasniewski mission, the European MP said that the Foreign Affairs Council report contained information on providing a stable decision in this matter and making it impossible to carry out politically motivated selective justice.

 Our interlocutor also noted that nobody did and could influence the content of the Cox and Kwasniewski mission report. Moreover, everyone in the EU and Ukraine hopes it will be impartial.

 According to the MEP, signing the agreement at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Lithuania is of crucial importance, and failing to sign it there will deal a hard blow to the initiative.

 Meanwhile, Brussels experts on European politics think that the Ukrainian side will manipulate the results of the summit in Brussels and is not going to carry out the regulations contained in the closing statement of the summit.

 Our interlocutors from the Institute for European Policy noted that tangible results meant that the Ukrainian side would fulfill at least 80 percent of the provisions declared in the common statement.

 Olha Shumylo-Tapiola, expert at the Brussels Carnegie Center, also thinks that when compared to Moldova, Ukraine is weaker in using the opportunities of cooperation with the European Union, and instead, just like Russia, it demands a special status of relations with Brussels. According to her, the Moldavian embassy does its best to demonstrate their European colleagues the progress that was made in the realization of the first stage of the non-visa regime. They are doing it without any requirements, in particular, they have been issuing biometric passports for a while now. Besides, the Moldovan government is successfully using party relations with European parties and personal connections with the political leaders of these parties. Thanks to good “chemistry” between the Prime Minister Vlad Filat and German chancellor Angela Merkel, it was possible to invite her and the president of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso to visit Moldova for the first time. Shumylo-Tapiola also said that the EU understands the situation in Ukraine well, but they do not understand why the Ukrainian government does not want to implement transformations like the ones that were carried out by its neighbors, Slovakia and Poland.