Eastern Ukraine After Elections: What Has Changed?

The process of forming the new government and opposition is in high gear. Representatives of the latter are presumably drawing support from the population of the three regions that voted against Viktor Yushchenko, and are positioning themselves as the champions of their interests. What sentiments currently predominate in Ukraine’s eastern regions? The Day ’s correspondents ventured on a field trip to the country’s east to find that out.

Yury PSHENYCHNY, Zoria newspaper observer, Dnipropetrovsk:

“The tumultuous events unfolding during the presidential campaign in Ukraine, which culminated in the victory of Viktor Yushchenko, have in fact caused a split in Ukrainian society. The Orange camp is now euphoric, while many of those who voted for Yanukovych are now in a depressed state: they even stopped greeting their neighbors or colleagues at work, and I get the impression that some of them need a psychologist to help them out of their depression. This is especially true of the elderly, pensioners whose life is hard as it is. You have to understand that they have wholeheartedly supported Yanukovych because they have put their hopes for a better life on him. Granted, it was real pre-election bribing of the voters. But while in the years of independence the pensioners had occasional sops of ten hryvnias thrown to them, Yanukovych increased pensions by a half in one fell swoop. For the first time the people got an opportunity to at least eat normal food. Those who have never had such problems will hardly understand this. Meanwhile, most pensioners remember full well how they lived under the socialism. Of course, they had no riches, but none of the elderly feared lest they starve to death. Therefore, in recent years they voted for the Communists, hoping if not for a bright future than at least for a return to the bright past. The elderly do not expect anything good of Yushchenko other than higher utility bills, eviction from their apartments for debts, and other problems. The new president must work very hard for the other half of society — not the young, healthy, and successful, but those who have been living a life of hopelessness since independence — to believe in him. It’s common knowledge that incomes of the great many do suffice to satisfy physiological need; people age faster and develop illnesses more often. We are witnessing a depopulation of the Ukrainian nation. Should we blame people who do not experience fits of patriotism under such conditions? To feel pride for one’s country, people must at least have a hope for a better future. Put plainly, the nostalgia for the bright past will dissipate when the wealth of Ukrainian society exceeds the level of Brezhnev’s socialism. In effect, this should be the overriding goal for President Yushchenko for the coming years, if he really wants to consolidate the nation and motivate it toward progress.”

Oleksiy MATSUKA, political scientist, director of the Donetsk Institute of Information:

“The elections have shown that the Ukrainian nation is not hopeless after all. The slowdown and stagnation in Ukraine’s political milieu is over. Many experts and political scientists no longer hoped to see any changes in the country. However, the events of the fall and winter of 2004 have stirred up the desire for change and development, which has materialized in the Orange Revolution and the attempted blue-and-white uprising. Naturally, every region viewed these events differently, depending on historical preconditions, the geographical component, and the so-called Soviet heritage. What has changed? In their civic consciousness, Donbas residents have developed a faint understanding of the fact that money and leverage cannot do everything. Many believed that since Yanukovych was Kuchma’s crony, all doors were open to him. This stereotype has been broken, and Donbas residents are gradually coming around to thinking that maybe it is better that Yushchenko has come to power. At least the local intelligentsia is thinking in this vein. Meanwhile, for most residents of the region Yushchenko’s victory has debunked the stereotype that Donbas is the most important part of the country. Their logic is that Yushchenko’s victory means that there is somebody stronger than Donbas. It was commonly held in the region that only the US and EU are stronger than Donbas... The political views of people in the Donetsk basin remain unchanged and amorphous to some extent. Donbas residents have yet to develop loyalty to all things Ukrainian. People here do not take pride in the national anthem and banner, Cossacks, or Hryshevsky’s Central Rada; people know nothing about Ukrainian Unity Day [January 22], and don’t want to hear anything in Ukrainian. Such people are the majority here. The minority is the intelligentsia who treat all things Ukrainian respectfully. Yanukovych’s defeat offers two scenarios for Donbas. The first is a positive scenario whereby the people will understand what is democracy and how they can break old stereotypes, such as ‘I vote as I am told.’ The second is a negative scenario whereby the people will rebel against the new government, thinking that they are threatened with extermination for being natives of Donbas, or forceful Ukrainization of those who voted for Yanukovych, etc. They will never accept Ukraine as their home country.”

Semen ZAVOROTNOV, candidate of history, author of publications on Stalinist repressions, Kharkiv:

“Without a doubt, the past elections have forever changed Ukrainian society. One may say that they have upended its political and civic consciousness. The Ukrainian mentality makes us a quite tranquil nation that can adapt to any hardships. But times have changed, and the people have understood their strength and are no longer content to bear it meekly. Everything has changed drastically in politics: the majority has become the minority and vice versa. Now a process of consolidation is underway on a healthy footing. There are good prospects for the development of political life in Ukraine in general and in the region in particular, since Kharkiv oblast is representative of the whole country. Political views are the views held of society, activity of the parties, and the lineup of political forces in the country. Without a doubt, until recently the region resembled a melting pot, and it was impossible to tell what would come of it. The situation has now stabilized both in politics and society. People have calmed down and regained hope for a better future.

“As for the opponents of the new president, they are now demanding too much of Viktor Yushchenko, half expecting him to make mistakes. In any case, the process of electing the new president is finally over, along with the nervousness and agonizing wait for the results, which was distressing the public for many months. Understandably, there are people who regret the change of power, but I don’t see any major split. It is yet too early to speak of loyalty to the Ukrainian state, since it has yet to shape its new identity. So far the old one is in place. Yushchenko is a famous figure, and we know for certain that he is the president and what we can expect of him. This I cannot say about the government.”