Pulling the Plug on Political Reform for the Next Five Years?

It seems unlikely that Ukraine’s President Leonid Kuchma will be able to fulfill his dream of signing the law on political reform. Political reform advocates failed to garner the 300 votes needed to introduce amendments into the Constitution. When the conciliation board, convened last Wednesday evening especially for this very occasion, ended its session, the president’s permanent representative in the Verkhovna Rada, Oleksandr Zadorozhny, told journalists the bill was only five votes short. In other words, very little has changed since April, when Bill No. 4105 foundered.

The subject of political reform hit the headlines again after the first round of the presidential elections. Yet squabbles over Bill No. 4180 confirmed that most of the agreements were just on paper and no one was going to keep their promises. Incidentally, carrying out political reform was the main condition that Oleksandr Moroz set in exchange for lending his support to Viktor Yushchenko. This item, as well as the “land question,” was crucial when the Socialists and Our Ukraine formed an electoral alliance. The two parties emphasized that the reform should be adopted before January 1, 2005, and come into force before January 1, 2006. Aware that there are very slim chances of raising this question again later, Mr. Moroz halfheartedly agreed to this deferment. At the same time, Mr. Yushchenko noted that changes would be made precisely in the format of Bill No. 4180, the one that Our Ukraine called “the clone of No. 4105” and an “anti-people document” as recently as six months ago.

The reason is simple: no reform, no support; no support, no victory; or a victory without powers. Neither of the Viktors risked breaking the vicious circle. The parliamentary lobbies of each candidate adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Our Ukraine insisted on introducing changes after the elections, while the Regions of Ukraine party was ready to vote immediately if “300 votes were guaranteed,” but nobody showed any initiative.

Volodymyr Lytvyn also missed his chance, for Bill No. 4180 essentially provides for an expansion of the parliamentary speaker’s powers. Prone to aphorisms, Stepan Havrysh said earlier “the golden key to the reform is in Voldymyr Lytvyn’s hands.” Why the Verkhovna Rada speaker did not venture to use this key we will never know, by all accounts. The speaker’s overseas journey coincided with the conciliation board’s Monday session, the last real chance to find 300 “yes” votes in the week before elections. The issue was not discussed during Lytvyn’s absence, and it was too late when he came back.

The period after November 21 will no doubt mark turbulent times for Mr. Lytvyn. The parliamentary majority is going to regroup around the new president, which will perhaps raise the question of the presidium’s rotation.

Since all those concerned, in spite of their political orientation, have repeatedly declared loyalty to the idea of constitutional reform, it is logical to ask about the destiny of Bill No. 4180 after the elections. The opposition, which originally supported this scenario, would say that it is easier to iron out all irregularities in a calm atmosphere and ultimately find consensus among all those who “are prepared to back the document on certain conditions.” There are a lot of these conditions, some of them totally incongruous.

Mr. Lytvyn has already suggested that all interested parties sign a joint pledge to carry out the political reform under a new president. (It would be interesting to see a head of state who voluntarily reduces his powers- on the eve of the parliamentary elections, at that!) In any case, of greatest interest in the context of the “unfinished” reform is the future of the laws on proportional representation (On the Elections of People’s Deputies and On the Elections to Local Bodies of Government) passed to serve this very reform. Parliamentarians are not exactly in raptures over these laws: the ex-majority factions are making no secret of the fact that they voted for them only in the context of a reform. Therefore, for lack of a reform, the brand-new laws will obviously undergo drastic changes. Most of the deputies are determined to go as far as taking legal action over the way the laws were passed (Valery Konovaliuk opted for this in a press interview) and fully restoring the first-past-the- post system. But the latter is eminently unsuitable for the current opposition: the number of seats won thanks to western Ukrainian voters will not allow it to take more or less firm stands.

All these contradictions again confirm the necessity of modifying the Fundamental Law as soon as possible. In his televised interview on Sunday, President Kuchma wondered ironically how his successor was going to form a coalition government and a parliamentary majority if verbal agreements, not stipulated by the Constitution, were in fact being flouted?

Incidentally, it has been learned that the parliamentary faction and group leaders, except for Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz, refused to sign an accord to put the political reform to a vote. According to Ihor Storozhuk, the spokesman of the Verkhovna Rada speaker, last Thursday the conciliation board discussed the text of a political agreement that provides for a new debate on the constitutional amendments bill (No. 4180) on December 2. The document also includes the possibility of discussing comments on the bill about the imperative mandate, the simultaneous tenure of the posts of people’s deputy and minister, as well as the deadlines for amendments and the introduction of general supervision by the Office of the Prosecutor General. BYuT leader Yuliya Tymoshenko said she was ready to sign the agreement, provided the Law on the Election of the President of Ukraine was duly amended. Parliamentary majority coordinator Stepan Havrysh said this agreement has no legal force, and representatives of factions and groups may convene, if necessary, at any moment to discuss the political reform. Roman Zvarych (Our Ukraine) noted that his faction was ready to sign the agreement if Bill No. 4180 were supplemented with clauses on reforming local government. Other participants, on behalf of their factions and groups, also expressed their readiness to vote for the political reform but refused, for various reasons, to sign this agreement. “It is very difficult to accept the fact that we say one thing and do another,” said Volodomyr Lytvyn’s spokesman, quoting the Speaker of Parliament. In the speaker’s view, “the Verkhovna Rada has pulled the plug on political reform for the next five years.” At the same time, the speaker noted that even though this matter is closed, the deputies will be able to raise it again, if necessary.