What the economic results-2003 will be?

Olena BARBAROVA, Director General of the Ukrainian Association of Investment Business:

“Next year Ukraine will demonstrate dynamics rather natural for a developing country. This can’t be labeled as stagnation, but there will be no rises or falls, either. Our situation is not as bad as it might seem. My conclusion is influenced mostly by the fact that some significant laws determining the ways for developing the economy were finally adopted. Among such laws I would mention the law On Joint Investment Institutions and some other standard acts. Their adoption not only gave a fresh start for this new for us financial structures, but also allowed to start the process of capital concentration, raising the effectiveness of managing the assets, which in its turn would serve as a powerful stimulus for the production sphere.”

Valentyna HOSHOVSKA, Deputy Head of the National Security and Defense Council:

“Unfortunately, we shouldn’t expect a dramatic upsurge in the economy. Draft state budget envisages a 4.5% GDP growth. If we compare this figure to the one for 2002, it becomes obvious that one can’t speak about any upsurge here, though we are not threatened with a downfall, either. Probably there will be something close to stagnation, though we could find a different definition for it. In think that in general the economy will repeat the year 2002. However, the living standards won’t be able to grow in parallel with GDP: this is quite obvious. Even a drastic GDP growth in the last two years did not reflect on the effectiveness of our social programs. They were fulfilled neither in healthcare nor in education nor other branches of the social sphere. We do not yet have a practical approach to implementing the idea of the need for a middle class, which had already emerged in the society. The problem is overflowed with discussions, while neither legal nor executive authorities don’t take any steps in this direction. As a result, we have only 5% of rich people and 95% poor — few countries demonstrate such an unfavorable ratio, which convinces one of the fact that most people will not be affected by the GDP growth envisaged by the budget. The more so that with the presidential elections coming closer, the situation will become more heated; various conflicts may arise which would be solved by means of compromise which will also do no good to a Ukrainian in the street, being based on the principle, Take from Peter and give to Paul, and having negative influence on both the quality of the laws and the economy.”

Petro OLIYNYK, People’s Deputy of Ukraine:

“I would characterize the state of Ukraine’s economy for 2003 as stagnation. A dynamic economy develops and multiplies all other processes, primarily social ones. Our economy isn’t going to have such opportunity this year. Of course, there will be some growth, but it won’t affect the budget or social standards or renewing major funds. This is why I believe we can’t count on an upsurge according to the European standards.”

Mykola HEORHIYEVSKY, President of the Enran Concern, Deputy of the Kyiv City Council:

“Taking into consideration the quite unfavorable for us conditions in the foreign market and rather complicated internal policy factor (I wouldn’t dwell upon this in more detail), I don’t have an optimistic view of the situation. Let’s hope we will be able to keep up to the current level in 2003. We have no radical changes as yet. The tax legislation, preserving its fiscal character, doesn’t provide for the interests of the economy. The political instability also prevents the development, spoiling Ukraine’s reputation and preventing the flow of foreign investment. These two factors alone are able to suppress any optimism.

“The volume of the extremely capacious internal market, which is underfilled with goods, imposes no restrictions on the growth and development of our enterprise. The only deterrent to us is the people’s low purchasing capacity. Simultaneously we suffer from a permanent lack of financial resources for production development. The enterprise doesn’t set ambitious tasks for itself: we make all efforts to preserve the current tendencies. In this sense I’m rather optimistic: due to the measures we take the situation for us won’t deteriorate.

“The middle class, the members of which are many people I meet and also myself, will obviously grow and develop, though not as fast as we would wish it. And one more thing: this will happen not due to, but in spite of the situation, as it often happens in this part of the world.”