“She is a reliable person, which is the secret of success, especially in turbulent times”

The Day addressed the journalist of Die Welt in Warsaw Gerhard GNAUCK asking him to comment on the unexpected results of seemingly calm elections in Germany and tell how Merkel’s enormous success can be explained. Another question was how the new distribution of political forces might influence Germany’s attitude to Ukraine and Berlin’s position concerning signing the Association Agreement on Vilnius summit in November.

On the one hand, a lot of Germans are satisfied with Germany’s economic position and low unemployment rate; on the other hand, they are afraid of the future and developments outside Germany, on the south of the European Union and in Syria, instability in Southern Europe and financial crisis.

“And here comes a chancellor whose skilful policy can be described with a proverb: slow and steady wins the race. She is a quiet person, she often avoids taking a stand, for instance, she is walking a tightrope in Syria’s question. However, she is very pragmatic and very trustworthy person. And people trust her. She does not show her emotions. To some extent, she is very modest, without any gloss. That is why she is a reliable person, which is the secret to success, especially in turbulent times.”

How can the defeat of their partners, free democrats, be explained?

“It is truly a historical pause. From the very beginning of the Federative Republic the liberals have never fallen out of the parliament. They have always been a junior partner. Curiously enough, this small party has been at power more often than the others.

“Probably, their defeat can be explained by the negative shade that the concept ‘liberalism’ has today. Over the past years this party has been trying to attract attention by different actions, loud slogans, such as: we will get 18 percent of votes and will become politically mature at the age of 18. In fact, they wanted to jump high but pride comes before a fall. This is what has happened to them.”

Social democrats are not satisfied with their result, are they? They expected more votes.

“Yes, the German Social Democratic Party is the oldest party in Germany with a great tradition. It used to be a labor party, but there are fewer and fewer workers in Germany, so social democrats are having a problem with their self-identity. That is why they are going through a long-time crisis.

“However, I should say that on this election they got three more percent. Previously it was even worse. The problem of SDP is that their position does not clearly differ from Merkel’s. During the crisis in the eurozone they supported the main points of Merkel’s course. So, the question is: why should one vote for this party, if it supports CDU? The original is Merkel, so why would one vote for her copy which is the party of social democrats?”

But how can we explain the success of the leftist party LINKE?

“They are mainly post-communists from the former GDR. But their post-communism is not the same they used to have. They have two presidents; one of them is a woman of 35. How can we call a communist someone who was a child in GDR? So, they have become more tolerant.

“In general, I can say that these elections were the elections of unlimited possibilities. Some observers let a possibility of a coalition between the green, social democrats, and the left. I do not think it is likely to happen.”

What is likely to happen, what coalitions are likely to appear, taking into account that CDU did not manage to get the absolute majority in the parliament?

“Merkel suggests creating a coalition either with social democrats or with the green. Observers opine that the debates concerning this or that coalition are going to be complicated. That is why I cannot say what the coalition might be since the situation can change within a couple of hours.

“I know that the future partners, especially, the green, would like to raise taxes for those who get the highest salaries. It is hard to say how flexible Merkel’s party will be regarding these issues.”

Is it more probable that the coalition will be wide as it has already been before?

“One way or another Merkel has every right to form the government and be a chancellor. Anything else, even if mathematical calculation provides it, contradicts any logic.”

In fact, Merkel’s party needs six more mandates to get the majority in the parliament. Isn’t it easier to lure six MPs, in other words, to buy six turncoats and resolve this problem? Is it hypothetically possible in Germany?

“In 1972 with the help of Stasi’s money two votes in Bundestag were ‘bought’ and thus the chancellor Willy Brandt was saved from the vote of censure and he could continue the policy of discharging. It was a long time ago. In our country every MP gets a good salary and a good pension. We are living in a rule-of-law state and we do not have such temptations to change a party for money.”

It is clear that Germany is going to have a new foreign minister. Who is likely to be nominated to this position?

“If there is a coalition with social democrats, it can be the former foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. He is the head of the committee on external questions in the parliament. If not him, there is the president of SDP Sigmar Gabriel who is very pragmatic, but he is not a specialist in foreign policy. It is too early to speculate about it.”

In general, is Germany likely to change its policy regarding Ukraine?

“Speaking about the Association Agreement, the current government is going to work for several more weeks. It is clear that Merkel is going to stay and she is the best foreign minister. She spends a lot of time on the foreign policy. The question concerning Yulia Tymoshenko plays a big role for the chancellor in the relations with Ukraine. It is unlikely to change. In my opinion, the question of the Association is not finalized yet.”

What has to be done to get a positive result in Vilnius? Will it be enough to give Tymoshenko a possibility to go to Germany for treatment?

“I think it would be a strong signal. It would be enough for the moment. It will get more complicated if Tymoshenko does not go. What will you do then? It is a big question. During the summit in Yalta the Polish Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned the Ukrainian authorities from making a mistake. There is a danger to overestimate Ukraine’s significance and EU’s interest in your country.”