Collective Conspiracy
Last week the leaders of six parties — SDPU(o), the Party of the Regions, Agrarian Party, National-Democratic Party, Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, and Labor Ukraine — and three deputy groups — Democratic Initiatives, People’s Choice, and Narodovladdia [People’s Power] — met at Ukrainian House to sign a coalition agreement. The signatories have undertaken to adopt Constitutional amendments in Verkhovna Rada, ensure that a single coalition candidate wins the presidential elections, and “deepen and expand” cooperation with the coalition government. Recently Ukraine’s Premier Viktor Yanukovych called on the “coalition of state and patriotic forces” to join efforts and win the presidential elections. Speaking in an interview in Korsun-Shevchenkivske, where he attended the commemorative events dedicated to the sixtieth anniversary of the Battle at Korsun-Shevchenkivske, Yanukovych noted that he will decide on his participation in the elections after his partners in the government and parliament announce their official decision. Apparently the parliamentary-governmental coalition will intrigue the voters for a long time with their promises to soon name its single candidate.
Against the background of turbulent unification processes within the majority, trends in the opposition camp are diametrically opposed, this being confirmed recently by First Deputy Speaker Adam Martyniuk. However, at the traditional Monday press conference of the Verkhovna Rada leadership Martyniuk acted more like a Communist Party leader rather than first deputy speaker, paying special attention to the position of his party in the pre-election lineup. According to Martyniuk’s forecasts, all opposition leaders will run for president, since it is impossible to nominate a single candidate from the opposition four. Moreover, to quote Martyniuk, there is no such thing as an opposition four today. He reminded journalists that the agreement to hold the Arise, Ukraine! protest rally was signed by three leaders, Symonenko, Moroz, and Tymoshenko, while Yushchenko did not sign. However, the four once signed the agreement on a political reform, whose clauses are almost identical to those of Bill No. 4105, previously approved by the parliamentary majority. Martyniuk also stressed that the Communists never promised to nominate a single candidate together with the opposition four. This was perhaps because of Our Ukraine, whose platform and ideological programs are absolutely different from those of the Communist Party. Moreover, as he put it, the Communists have been and will remain the true opposition, unlike Our Ukraine and the Tymoshenko bloc, whose opposition goes no farther than their ambition to “replace those currently in power.” If a representative of Our Ukraine makes it to the runoff, the Communists will not support him, Martyniuk said.
Judging from the absence of a response to the expository statements by Martyniuk from the three former opposition partners, they either have nothing to deny in principle or are too busy. Viktor Yushchenko is trying himself as a contributor to the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza , which recently carried his sharply worded article about the plans of the Ukrainian leadership. Yuliya Tymoshenko is preparing to testify at the trial that has begun in California, in which her former colleague Pavlo Lazarenko is the defendant. Oleksandr Moroz complained on the “Epicenter” program on the 1+1 television channel that “unless the reform gets underway,” he will “probably” be “forced” to run for president. It will be recalled that several months ago, after yet again accusing those in power of resisting the political reform, the Socialists called on the opposition leaders to join forces and coordinate their actions “now and during the presidential campaign,” according to an SPU statement signed by Moroz. However, it did not take long for the maneuver of the Socialists to be exposed. On the following day it became known that the second man in the SPU, Yosyp Vinsky, addressed a letter to the leaders of the four, Oleksandr Moroz included, proposing to nominate Oleksandr Moroz as a single opposition candidate in the 2004 elections. Speaking in an interview, Vinsky said that he did not mean to offend anyone or split the opposition, but only “clearly and pragmatically, as a political technologist, I drew up an action plan to win the 2004 presidential race in the first round.”
What if Our Ukraine does not support such an option? “Well, if it doesn’t agree to it, history will show who was right in this disagreement,” Vinsky declared solemnly. Perhaps Our Ukraine was offended but got back at the Socialists only recently: Yushchenko responded quite emotionally to the fact that the SPU sided with the majority and Communists at the February 3 extraordinary session, which resulted in 304 ayes to support amendments to the political reform bill.
At roughly the same time, the Tymoshenko bloc leader also expressed her confidence that “any opposition leader will win these elections, if nominated as a single candidate.” Meanwhile, Tymoshenko bloc deputy Oleksandr Turchynov even told journalists about the relevant negotiations that are underway, “although not without difficulty.”
Apparently the difficulties have proven insurmountable. Perhaps the schemes of division of powers, which have become common knowledge (Moroz for president, Yushchenko for premier, Tymoshenko for first vice premier, Symonenko for speaker; or Yushchenko for president, Tymoshenko for premier, Moroz for speaker, with Symonenko as the Communist Party leader, and so forth), will never materialize.
In any case, each leader of the now nonexistent, according to Martyniuk, opposition four, aside from ambitions, has purely technical reasons to personally participate in the presidential race. Otherwise, they will find it quite difficult to explain their position to the voters in the next parliamentary election campaign. Thus, none of them is ready for self-sacrifice in the name of a single candidate. There is also little hope that one of them will manage to outsmart the others.
What should the majority do? At least it is much too early to say that the rivalry in the opposition camp increases the chances of a single candidate from the majority.
