Crimean Tatars, Centrist alliance, and money will influence election on the peninsula

Meeting with the Council of Crimean Tatar Representatives in Yalta on September 17, President Leonid Kuchma declared he would not sign the Crimean parliamentary elections bill (governing the elections to all local councils) if it provides for any other clauses except the majority one; he considered the proportional pattern, and even a mixed one, unacceptable, because of the flawed Ukrainian party system. In the Crimea alone, this will fundamentally change the alignment of political forces, foiling the plans of many politicians; although regional parties, small but boisterous, had managed to get registered on a nationwide scale, they will now lose all party privileges, and their leaders will have to vie on a par with other candidates in majority constituencies.

The president certainly did his homework well before the scheduled meeting and he may have purposefully postponed it for a week in order to hold consultations. The first round took place a week before, at Simferopol Airport where the chief executive met with the autonomy republic’s leadership. The latter, instead of reporting progress, complained mostly that the Majlis was still to be registered. This must have left Mr. Kuchma dissatisfied. On September 14 he summoned his adviser Serhiy Kunitsyn to Kyiv to analyze the situation. In a conversation with Mustafa Dzhemiliov, reports The Day’s correspondent, Serhiy Kunitsyn confirmed this, adding that he had shared his views with the president while in Kyiv. During the meeting with Tatar representatives, Leonid Kuchma said he could not regard as normal a situation in which Crimean Tatars would not be able to be elected to state bodies, even at the ratio of their being part of the Crimea’s population. The Crimean leadership, particularly Leonid Hrach who must have already had a clear vision of the peninsula’s future parliament, are likely to have to make corrections in their legislative approach. A significant number of Crimean Tatars will be elected to the Crimean parliament. They will, of course, form a faction similar to that in the previous parliament in support of the Ukrainian state and against the Communists. In addition, considering the previous faction’s experience, the newly elected lawmakers will take an active stand in protecting state interests, fighting political deals, and everything meant to fool the people. If the electoral system is fair, there could be 12-14 seats for the Crimean Tatars, as in the previous faction Kurultai. A rather strong force, yet not enough to make real decisions or block the Meshkov (deposed Crimean president — Ed.) trends that are still active in the Crimean parliament. In other words, it is time centrist figures figured out a way to build a stable centrist majority.

At the meeting, Mustafa Dzhemiliov also said that Leonid Hrach is spreading misleading information concerning the Crimean Tatars’ fundamentalist sentiments; that he is behind the confrontation of local Orthodox and Moslem communities over the issue of erecting crosses. He also charged that the recent obviously provocative statement of the Union of Orthodox Citizens of Ukraine that “the so-called Majlis of the Crimean Tatar People” closely cooperates with Chechnya terrorists, particularly by accommodating guerrillas at Crimean resorts, also originated in the Crimea. Leonid Kuchma instructed the SBU secret police and the Prosecutor General’s Office to analyze the sources of confrontation and hostility among a part of the Crimean population. In a private conversation with Leonid Kuchma, Tatar leaders Mustafa Dzhemiliov and Refat Chubarov drew the president’s attention to the fact that certain political forces would heavily rely on the ethnic and religious factors in the next elections, and that this could have very serious consequences for the entire country. One can only wonder why no one has as yet discovered a getaway car anywhere on the peninsula with Boeing 747 operating instructions in the Crimean Tatar language (another option would be a CD with detailed maps of Ukraine and Russia, Boeing operating manual, and a pilot’s manual, all in Crimean Tatar, of course).

What are the Crimean centrists up to? There is the bloc of the Crimean Social Democrats, NDP, and Peasants (less Labor Ukraine); as for the political center, the situation is becoming dangerous; should the centrist alliance fail, the votes of the centrist-minded electorate will be raided by a dozen other parties. Regrettably, the first attempt at such an alliance, TUNDRA, cannot be described as successful. There is one chance left, an effective bloc, but there little doubt that the situation in the regions will be different. Sociologists believe that the centrist electorate is at least 55% (compared to 40% in Ukraine). This at first glance paradox actually makes sense, since the Right is obviously weak on the peninsula. In any case, one should expect the election campaign to come to life once the president signs the election bill and especially the Crimean parliamentary election bill, but its prospects look grim after the president’s statement in Yalta, although Verkhovna Rada passed its own elections bill in the second reading, providing for a 50:50 mixed pattern.

One must admit, however, that the centrist strategy and tactics, given the unique conditions of the 2002 elections, is for the first time taking shape as a real force; if planned well, it will bring them victory. Moreover, granting that Ukraine’s decommunization (analogous to the denazification policy carried out in Germany after the defeat of a not dissimilar ideology some decades ago — Ed.) is a prerequisite of further progress, it is clear that the centrists — primarily the SDPU(o), NDP, Peasants, Greens, etc., under the circumstances — are like bomb squad members who can make a mistake only once.

Experts predict that the coming election campaign will revolve around money. On the peninsula word has it that some parties are charging two million hryvnias a name to get on the list. Meanwhile, all parties are urging each other to join the campaign for clean and transparent elections. A number of journalists in Ukraine have signed a memorandum, promising to take no money during the campaign. All this is not coincidental. Along with the widespread assumption that the next election will be the dirtiest ever, the part about hard cash makes one wonder grimly about all that money being spent on mudslinging and vote fraud when it comes time to count the ballots. Naturally, one can hardly expect all such sources of financing to be made public, but there are stories about the way some parties are being funded.

Quite recently, Russia experienced yet another scandal focused on Yakutzoloto allegedly financing Gennady Ziuganov in particular by supplying the many financial needs of Russia’s Communist Party. It was further alleged that his party, just like its predecessor, the CPSU, is actively using that money abroad. Interestingly, some of that money was eventually traced to the Crimea.

A source close to Crimean financial circles informed The Day that the Crimean Communist leader has had six confidential meetings with Russian businessmen in the past several months. Of course, there have been other contacts between the speaker and people from Mother Russia, but in an altogether different setting, kept open and official. As for the six meetings held off the record, the setting deserves special notice. All took place at the resort Chemists’ Base, in the town of Saky not far from Yevpatoriya. Characteristically, Saky’s entire resort network, including that particular resort (renamed Northern Lights) was subsequently privatized by businesspeople from Yakutia. Informed sources indicate that the confidential talks dealt with financial aid to the Crimean Communist Party from that region, and that the deal was negotiated on Ziuganov’s personal instructions.

Now many parties happily include in their ranks whole private enterprises, most likely regarding such newcomers as potential sources of financing. There are parties relying on state structures, and it is safe to assume that they would not mind also getting material support from the shadow economy. They have activated a host of mechanisms beforehand. How otherwise can one explain the desire of some party leaders to sponsor various construction or renovation projects? It is all actually very simple. All it takes is fixing a tender so a certain friendly organization is proclaimed the successful bidder. After that, quite lawfully, it receives huge sums. In a word, the hunting season for campaign cash has opened.