Deal at Whose Expense?

If those striving to dismiss the Kinakh Cabinet fail to fulfill their plans this summer, they will resume their attempts in the fall. Obviously, the head of government will have to make deals with parliamentary factions. What could be the object of such deals? The Day put this question to the following experts:

Serhiy TELESHUN, Doctor of Political Sciences; president, Commonwealth Foundation:

“Today, the government is no longer in any zone of being untouchable. I think, to stabilize his position, the premier will apply a strategy of both economic and political nature. What I mean is not so much a government action program and the new budget as the political program. The latter will specify the relationship with both the opponents and possible allies who will be able to support the Kinakh government and keep it afloat until fall.

“I think the cabinet will seek cooperation with some Verkhovna Rada factions and apply certain political technologies to neutralize its opponents. Simultaneously, the government will attempt to set up a system of parliamentary and presidential lobbyists. Clearly, this kind of support will require some sacrifices, namely government portfolios and certain privatization schemes to be implemented in the fall.”

Serhiy KYSELIOV, expert on economic policies, International Institute of Comparative Analysis:

“By all accounts, the government’s program will be put to a vote at the next session in the fall. Besides, the opposition will reach a deadlock unless supported by Communist votes, so the factions set up on the basis of United Ukraine will have the final say. As a compromise measure, some representatives of financial industrial groups may be appointed to certain, especially economy related, government posts (Minister of the Economy or State Property Fund chairman). In other words, different interest groups might be represented in the cabinet to ensure support for the government.”

Andriy YERMOLAYEV, director, Sofia Social Research Center:

“It is unlikely today that the government will face a vote of no-confidence: not only because most of the interested forces have not yet finished regrouping. What is not quite clear now is both the autumnal situation and the relationship between the parliament and president. Thus it is very dangerous to play the government card in these conditions. However, shortly before September or October, the government might be invited to report on fulfilling the state budget for this year’s three quarters. In that case, a vote of no confidence in the government would be a very likely possibility. I think Mr. Kinakh could have a chance to survive in the autumn if he pursues an independent political line.

“As to the government program, it is most likely to repeat the destiny of the Pustovoitenko government. It is obvious even now that the program’s text and format are very ‘blurred’ and do not fit in with the President’s message. In other words, this document fails, unfortunately, to work even as a spin-control exercise. With this in view, Mr. Kinakh is unlikely to insist that the program be voted on in July, for this would be a political mistake. It is much wiser to quietly avoid reporting and be prepared for September. It is important now to draw up a conceptually more advanced document and make it a basis for internal parliamentary deals.”

Rostyslav PAVLENKO, political scientist; executive director, School of Political Analysis:

“Some steps are being taken even now to buttress the premier’s position. For example, the government has stepped up its rhetoric lately about the European choice and eventual NATO membership. The government thus demonstrates – quite in line with the President’s message – its readiness to march toward the European community. On the other hand, the government is working publicly and privately with the factions that have risen on the ruins of United Ukraine. In particular, Mr. Kinakh said recently that coal-mining is a top-priority industry badly in need of development and funding. And in the conditions, when the Four in fact have no majority in parliament to pass a vote of no confidence, of decisive importance are the votes of the United Ukraine factions. So this kind of government move can be viewed as tentative strategic steps.

“As is known, the government has introduced in parliament a draft tax code which most experts view very critically for many reasons (for example, reforming the industrial profit tax, VAT refunding, etc.). Thus, this motion plus the proposal of rather radical reforms could cut both ways. On the one hand, reforms are needed, but, on the other, this might stir up a debate and even put the government in danger. This is why I think the government will exercise caution until the end of the current session and will not insist on bringing the government program to a vote. In all probability, we will see the storm around the government in the fall. For it is then, two years before the elections, that new people could be appointed in order to take strong economic steps. I think it will be clear this week to what extent the government’s position is firm. Until then, everything will come down to opposition jabs.”

Dmytro VYDRIN, director, European Institute of Integration and Development:

“A lot depends today on the attitude of the prime minister himself. If he tries to hold out by applying the method of balancing interests, backstage intrigues, and seeking arguments, he will find it difficult to retain his office. Yet, I think Mr. Kinakh stands a good chance to weather the hard times owing to his innate nature of avoiding conflict, correctness, and the ability to take account of other peoples’ interests. Besides, his tenure of the premier’s office now suits most interest groups. At the same time, as European experience shows, hostility to many (the premier is known to have a lot of enemies) helps retain power better than alliance with a few. Thus, the political cards are in favor of Kinakh at least until the autumn. Later, much will depend on the presence of new players and their political weight.”