ON HOW A MUZHIK PLANS TO HOLD FAIR ELECTIONS

If one stops using Leonid Kuchma's vocabulary one will simply say that the presidential entourage has embarked on a hurried rapprochement with neighboring election headquarters, seeking an «alibi.» Just in case. Remarkably, this entourage is apparently not among the political analyst Pohrebynsky's regular readers; they establish contacts with those rubbing shoulders with politicians whom this independent prestigious researcher regularly consulting with the President's confidant People's Deputy Oleksandr Volkov calls «outsiders» in his unbiased writings.

By adopting this sage approach, information sources do what they can to contribute to the development of democracy in the Ukrainian state, where more than two-thirds of the populace expect the elections to be rigged. Would these people continue feeling doomed, knowing that Leonid Kuchma has stepped down? Will our highly professional and absolutely independent sociologists ever pose this question to the populace?

Getting back to our moutons , information sources on Bankova St. and in quarters close to the government claim that the candidates' fair elections «alliance» caused an outburst of ideas at Leonid Kuchma's election headquarters boiling down to the burn ‘em all tactic. Start by driving a wedge between Moroz and Tkachenko, using the Speaker's comrades in the first place, considering their ill-concealed dislike of the man's comments praising the ex-Speaker. Another idea is staging a couple of loud regional squabbles between the Socialists and Peasants, with spectacular coverage provided by government-controlled media. In addition, local Peasants must constantly hear about Tkachenko being prepared to take Moroz's side, contrary to the convention's decisions; the Socialists must, in turn, start having doubts about Moroz's sincere presidential ambition, seeing him as willing to reach an understanding with Marchuk. Here the task is formulated as follows: «Keep the relations between those supporting Yevhen Marchuk and his principal campaign opponent Oleksandr Moroz under surveillance at the regional level. Expose divergences and cases of misunderstanding between the Socialists and Marchuk's exponents, primarily of the right and radical right orientation. Disseminate such information using local media.»

Petro Symonenko is assigned a special mission. He must act as though offended by being left out of the hasty fair elections arrangement and keep this posture till the election date, refusing any strategic negotiations — primarily with Oleksandr Tkachenko, because the Speaker counts on his understanding and can be the interlink between the CPU leadership and other tactical allies.

Besides, there are «black marks» ready for each and every ally, ranging from the traditional «Lazarenko money» for Moroz to a great variety of multivectoral technologies for Marchuk. Here all means justify the end: biography, offspring («Now what do you mean by that?» President Kuchma asked recently, referring to «private life and family members» mentioned as a taboo in the fair elections agreement. «Where does this come from?»), former colleagues, the «alien» topic of arms traffic and a close and understandable one of the International Business Union, etc . In fact, some of these topics are touched upon by pro-presidential newspapers, in a roundabout way.

Yevhen Marchuk's idea of national reconciliation, «uniting the two banks of the Dnipro,» is to be placed under special round- the-clock surveillance: «Monitor all of Marchuk's statements indicative of his own intentions, as well as any such actions as may be used to destabilize his stand in the electoral field. Thus, his OUN-UPA rehabilitation ideas should be proliferated in the eastern and southern regions where they could cause the voters' negative response.» I asked the person who supplied the above data, «Listen, all this means pouring oil on the flames of hatred in Ukraine, something only an enemy of Ukraine would want to do. Do you mean that we have such enemies on Bankova St.? Obviously, they don't need a unified Ukraine, a unified people, do they?» The person shrugged: «We have elections coming. In this country it is not a campaign, it's a war. A la guerre c omme a la gu erre .» Well, I'll be damned, I thought. They are fighting using the people as cannon fodder. And who are the warring parties? The man who wants to continue to rule this country, his entourage, and their opponents. They want to torture this land further, deepening the gap between its eastern and western territories. Is this being done for the good of Ukraine? Of course not, just to keep their seats come what may. Well, gentlemen, you seem to have forgotten to include Ukraine's big friend Zatulin in your stratagems. The one who had a fit after a hearty dinner in Sevastopol, shouting at us as his «enemies»: «Your Marchuk is a number one spy, he did away with Meshkov and made Russia lose the Crimea! The peninsula has lost its last chance! And all this is Marchuk's doing!» C'mon, boys, go right ahead, use this incriminating evidence against Marchuk in the east and south of Ukraine. It is «extremely topical» since only Ukrainian citizens rest at the Crimean resorts these days. And you know what? They don't give a damn about your political speculations, because the Crimea is nothing but a recreational facility for all they know.

The finale of the Marchuk- incriminating scenario is quite original: after the artillery preparation, meant by the script writers to demoralize the candidate and his supporters, word is spread over the TV channels: Marchuk is giving himself up to the President. And similar gossip is spread about Tkachenko. Meaning what? That Kuchma's script writers know only too well: there is nothing that can discredit a decent person more in this country than giving himself up to the current President or making any arrangements with him.

This discrediting support be supplementd by that of Yuri Luzhkov. For example, if Oleksandr Moroz relied on his support. So what do we have? Russia's APN reports, referring to a source at the Otchizna, that Mr. Luzhkov will back Oleksandr Moroz. Why Moroz? The answer to this is found not in Moscow, but in Kyiv: because certain rather irresponsible Right patriots tend to support him; besides, Oleksandr Moroz does not cause a strong idiosyncrasy in all the National Democrats. Therefore, Luzhkov's name must be brought to the fore to stimulate the reject phenomena. In fact, few other Russian politicians come up with such territorial claims nonsense as the Moscow Mayor does. So what? «The enemy of Ukraine is Moroz's friend.» Simple and clever. And with a masterful touch to it (some point an accusing finger at Tabachnyk). Mr. Moroz's campaign strategists grin, saying Yuri Luzhkov is not in the habit of losing any games and would not stake on the wrong horse, yet they agree that this information from Russia is a typical Bankova St. setup. In other words, a «provocation in the truest sense of the word.»

That same APN release carried more sensational news: Chubais is backing Tkachenko. «Do you know that Mr. Chubais has come out in your support?» I asked the Speaker. His reply, in the presence of foreign journalists, was:

«I learned this after that information was released. Second, if he had contacted me we would perhaps talk this over and I would make no secret of the fact. Third, I am sorry to say that I have never met Mr. Chubais. I think that this information has the sole purpose of placing me in the same ring with the current President; whereas he is supported by Berezovsky, Tkachenko is supported by Chubais. I think it is quite primitive. And the fact remains that Berezovsky, representing a different state, keeps a team numbering over 200 at the Ukrainian taxpayer's expense, also that he stays in Kyiv, on the President's team. Personally, I think that interfering in the internal affairs of another state is highly improper and that it does not add to the reputation of those benefiting from these services today.»

Since this APN information mentions projects being of interest to Russia (e.g., Mykolayiv Alumina Plant, Lysychansk Oil Refinery, etc. ). Mr. Tkachenko reminded those present that, being at the head of the Verkhovna Rada, he has «nothing to do with any capital goods available in this state» and, therefore, «would not want to have someone else's responsibility shifted to my shoulders.» Whereas the part about having nothing to do with capital goods is a bit of an understatement, the one about shifting the responsibility warrants no debate.

I also tried to find out whether Mr. Tkachenko knew that the executive, having slightly recovered after the fuel crisis, will shortly tell the public that the whole thing was an act of sabotage committed by twelve firms allegedly controlled by the Speaker. He had this to say:

«I think it is clear that, after the President and his entourage went bankrupt and the country condemned the executive unable to balance the amount of fuel and lubricants required for the 1999 harvest campaign, it is their problem. It means that the current executive is unable to run this country. So they are constantly trying to find the scapegoat. One doesn't have to go far for an example. The Minister of Agribusiness is fired in the course of the harvest campaign, yet this drastic measure does not cause the desired effect; the people show no response to this executive maneuver. Time passes and the Cabinet is beaten out of countenance. Now the Premier faces retirement, but he gets away by exposing his First Deputy. Now the i's are dotted.

«Wouldn't it be better for the executive to admit their guilt to the people and say that no, we cannot cope with our task, and surrender power to those that can? And stop fooling the people. As for their working out various models, I think that they have nothing else to do; they have solved all their problems, haven't they? Now all they have to do is find an enemy in their own country and gyp their own people. But I have a simple question. How much grain has been harvested and how much has been supplied to the national reserve? You get the statistics and you will see that the crop yield and gross intake figures are being overstated, so as to show the people that our harvest rates and crop yields are higher. And the granaries are empty! Last year we harvested about 5 million tons. Not much, of course, but I don't think that there will be a million tons this year. And we'll see how much they overstated the gross intake just to say don't worry, people, everything will be fine. Nothing could be farther from the truth and I think that the reality will dawn on everybody not later than September. And we will say as much.»

Incidentally, the executives attach primary importance to finding a way to get over the gasoline crisis and also capitalize on it in their struggle with political adversaries. The fact remains that the executive branch is a heterogeneous entity and the President's entourage a self- devouring organism. Each campaign headquarter is like the proverbial Spanish court with its continuous intrigues and dog- eat-dog laws, supplying upstairs with mutually exclusive projects. One of our sources claims that some of them propose to «affiliate» Chubais to Marchuk and make a big thing of Marchuk's having befriended Medvedchuk and Surkis during the parliamentary elections, now that the two are to blame for the fuel crisis because their boosting gasoline prices resulted in the rush at the filling stations. It is anyone's guess why, lashing out at Marchuk, people on the same side damage one another. Too bad no one on Bankova St. has let it slip that there was a laden oil tanker riding anchor opposite Gurzuf in the heat of the fuel crisis while Franchuk Jr. dashed between it and the coast (i.e., filling stations) on board an Artek speedboat as the question of whether or not to unload was being debated. Using the President's vocabulary, lying tongues have it that the business- minded People's Deputy Franchuk's maneuvers were caused by the need to keep the gasoline prices up at the top. Well, if it is really so we will soon hear about it, for the executives are looking for guilty parties, aren't they?

Be it as it may, the big question remains. What the hell are all of Leonid Kuchma's campaign-coordinating centers doing, along with two hundred Russian recruits, if one can call the President's bluff almost as soon as he utters a few words of yet another statement? Or maybe it serves his image to hurl truckloads of dirt at the opponents while beating one's chest swearing «the elections will be fair as of this day» (and what about before this day?)? Thick or thinning hair does not make a real « muzhik » (i.e., man — Ed .). Oleksandr Tkachenko, for example, says, «I have always considered myself a muzhik . As for those that don't and say that others are, well, it's their problem. M uzhik is a very powerful notion.» He is right. And using «so-called» referring to duly registered presidential candidates, such as the ex-Premier, ex- Speaker, and Speaker, is offensive, explained by one's own political impotence. Mr. Tkachenko points out, forbearingly but with feeling, «That's what I call a limited vocabulary. Maybe not invective, but it sounds like criminal slang to me.»

By and large, Ukraine seems an extremely comic country, a so-called polity. Even the SBU Security Service of Ukraine is not a formidable secret police but a bunch of jokesters. Their latest joke was a very good one: SBU chief Derkach sent a memorandum on the loyalty of Mykolayiv's media to Presidential Aide Lytvyn «to detect leaks». A foreign diplomatic officer I know (I will not identify him, of course) commented on this: «Your special service made a very bold decision risking the country's prestige as a democratic state just to determine that service's shortcomings. However, I don't think that its people are that stupid. It is just that your regime is not democratic; the SBU obeyed orders from upstairs and ended up looking foolish.»

Well, I could have told him that we do not have a regime, we just have one muzhik at the very top.

P.S. : Simferopol. After handing in this article I boarded a flight to the Crimea and found myself in company with the President's Press Secretary Oleksandr Martynenko. There was also an unpleasant character hanging around, openly taking pictures of the two of us. Therefore, I want it on record — for all the inquisitive-minded — that the two of us only discussed sex .