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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

ON HOW A MUZHIK PLANS TO HOLD FAIR ELECTIONS

17 July, 1999 - 00:00

If one stops using Leonid Kuchma's vocabulary one will
simply say that the presidential entourage has embarked on a hurried rapprochement
with neighboring election headquarters, seeking an «alibi.» Just in case.
Remarkably, this entourage is apparently not among the political analyst
Pohrebynsky's regular readers; they establish contacts with those rubbing
shoulders with politicians whom this independent prestigious researcher
regularly consulting with the President's confidant People's Deputy Oleksandr
Volkov calls «outsiders» in his unbiased writings.

By adopting this sage approach, information sources do
what they can to contribute to the development of democracy in the Ukrainian
state, where more than two-thirds of the populace expect the elections
to be rigged. Would these people continue feeling doomed, knowing that
Leonid Kuchma has stepped down? Will our highly professional and absolutely
independent sociologists ever pose this question to the populace?

Getting back to our moutons , information sources on Bankova
St. and in quarters close to the government claim that the candidates'
fair elections «alliance» caused an outburst of ideas at Leonid Kuchma's
election headquarters boiling down to the burn ‘em all tactic. Start by
driving a wedge between Moroz and Tkachenko, using the Speaker's comrades
in the first place, considering their ill-concealed dislike of the man's
comments praising the ex-Speaker. Another idea is staging a couple of loud
regional squabbles between the Socialists and Peasants, with spectacular
coverage provided by government-controlled media. In addition, local Peasants
must constantly hear about Tkachenko being prepared to take Moroz's side,
contrary to the convention's decisions; the Socialists must, in turn, start
having doubts about Moroz's sincere presidential ambition, seeing him as
willing to reach an understanding with Marchuk. Here the task is formulated
as follows: «Keep the relations between those supporting Yevhen Marchuk
and his principal campaign opponent Oleksandr Moroz under surveillance
at the regional level. Expose divergences and cases of misunderstanding
between the Socialists and Marchuk's exponents, primarily of the right
and radical right orientation. Disseminate such information using local
media.»

Petro Symonenko is assigned a special mission. He must
act as though offended by being left out of the hasty fair elections arrangement
and keep this posture till the election date, refusing any strategic negotiations
— primarily with Oleksandr Tkachenko, because the Speaker counts on his
understanding and can be the interlink between the CPU leadership and other
tactical allies.

Besides, there are «black marks» ready for each and every
ally, ranging from the traditional «Lazarenko money» for Moroz to a great
variety of multivectoral technologies for Marchuk. Here all means justify
the end: biography, offspring («Now what do you mean by that?» President
Kuchma asked recently, referring to «private life and family members» mentioned
as a taboo in the fair elections agreement. «Where does this come from?»),
former colleagues, the «alien» topic of arms traffic and a close and understandable
one of the International Business Union, etc . In fact, some of
these topics are touched upon by pro-presidential newspapers, in a roundabout
way.

Yevhen Marchuk's idea of national reconciliation, «uniting
the two banks of the Dnipro,» is to be placed under special round- the-clock
surveillance: «Monitor all of Marchuk's statements indicative of his own
intentions, as well as any such actions as may be used to destabilize his
stand in the electoral field. Thus, his OUN-UPA rehabilitation ideas should
be proliferated in the eastern and southern regions where they could cause
the voters' negative response.» I asked the person who supplied the above
data, «Listen, all this means pouring oil on the flames of hatred in Ukraine,
something only an enemy of Ukraine would want to do. Do you mean that we
have such enemies on Bankova St.? Obviously, they don't need a unified
Ukraine, a unified people, do they?» The person shrugged: «We have elections
coming. In this country it is not a campaign, it's a war. A la guerre
c omme a la gu erre .» Well, I'll be damned, I thought. They are fighting
using the people as cannon fodder. And who are the warring parties? The
man who wants to continue to rule this country, his entourage, and their
opponents. They want to torture this land further, deepening the gap between
its eastern and western territories. Is this being done for the good of
Ukraine? Of course not, just to keep their seats come what may. Well, gentlemen,
you seem to have forgotten to include Ukraine's big friend Zatulin in your
stratagems. The one who had a fit after a hearty dinner in Sevastopol,
shouting at us as his «enemies»: «Your Marchuk is a number one spy, he
did away with Meshkov and made Russia lose the Crimea! The peninsula has
lost its last chance! And all this is Marchuk's doing!» C'mon, boys, go
right ahead, use this incriminating evidence against Marchuk in the east
and south of Ukraine. It is «extremely topical» since only Ukrainian citizens
rest at the Crimean resorts these days. And you know what? They don't give
a damn about your political speculations, because the Crimea is nothing
but a recreational facility for all they know.

The finale of the Marchuk- incriminating scenario is quite
original: after the artillery preparation, meant by the script writers
to demoralize the candidate and his supporters, word is spread over the
TV channels: Marchuk is giving himself up to the President. And similar
gossip is spread about Tkachenko. Meaning what? That Kuchma's script writers
know only too well: there is nothing that can discredit a decent person
more in this country than giving himself up to the current President or
making any arrangements with him.

This discrediting support be supplementd by that of Yuri
Luzhkov. For example, if Oleksandr Moroz relied on his support. So what
do we have? Russia's APN reports, referring to a source at the Otchizna,
that Mr. Luzhkov will back Oleksandr Moroz. Why Moroz? The answer to this
is found not in Moscow, but in Kyiv: because certain rather irresponsible
Right patriots tend to support him; besides, Oleksandr Moroz does not cause
a strong idiosyncrasy in all the National Democrats. Therefore, Luzhkov's
name must be brought to the fore to stimulate the reject phenomena. In
fact, few other Russian politicians come up with such territorial claims
nonsense as the Moscow Mayor does. So what? «The enemy of Ukraine is Moroz's
friend.» Simple and clever. And with a masterful touch to it (some point
an accusing finger at Tabachnyk). Mr. Moroz's campaign strategists grin,
saying Yuri Luzhkov is not in the habit of losing any games and would not
stake on the wrong horse, yet they agree that this information from Russia
is a typical Bankova St. setup. In other words, a «provocation in the truest
sense of the word.»

That same APN release carried more sensational news: Chubais
is backing Tkachenko. «Do you know that Mr. Chubais has come out in your
support?» I asked the Speaker. His reply, in the presence of foreign journalists,
was:

«I learned this after that information was released. Second,
if he had contacted me we would perhaps talk this over and I would make
no secret of the fact. Third, I am sorry to say that I have never met Mr.
Chubais. I think that this information has the sole purpose of placing
me in the same ring with the current President; whereas he is supported
by Berezovsky, Tkachenko is supported by Chubais. I think it is quite primitive.
And the fact remains that Berezovsky, representing a different state, keeps
a team numbering over 200 at the Ukrainian taxpayer's expense, also that
he stays in Kyiv, on the President's team. Personally, I think that interfering
in the internal affairs of another state is highly improper and that it
does not add to the reputation of those benefiting from these services
today.»

Since this APN information mentions projects being of interest
to Russia (e.g., Mykolayiv Alumina Plant, Lysychansk Oil Refinery, etc.
). Mr. Tkachenko reminded those present that, being at the head of
the Verkhovna Rada, he has «nothing to do with any capital goods available
in this state» and, therefore, «would not want to have someone else's responsibility
shifted to my shoulders.» Whereas the part about having nothing to do with
capital goods is a bit of an understatement, the one about shifting the
responsibility warrants no debate.

I also tried to find out whether Mr. Tkachenko knew that
the executive, having slightly recovered after the fuel crisis, will shortly
tell the public that the whole thing was an act of sabotage committed by
twelve firms allegedly controlled by the Speaker. He had this to say:

«I think it is clear that, after the President and his
entourage went bankrupt and the country condemned the executive unable
to balance the amount of fuel and lubricants required for the 1999 harvest
campaign, it is their problem. It means that the current executive is unable
to run this country. So they are constantly trying to find the scapegoat.
One doesn't have to go far for an example. The Minister of Agribusiness
is fired in the course of the harvest campaign, yet this drastic measure
does not cause the desired effect; the people show no response to this
executive maneuver. Time passes and the Cabinet is beaten out of countenance.
Now the Premier faces retirement, but he gets away by exposing his First
Deputy. Now the i's are dotted.

«Wouldn't it be better for the executive to admit their
guilt to the people and say that no, we cannot cope with our task, and
surrender power to those that can? And stop fooling the people. As for
their working out various models, I think that they have nothing else to
do; they have solved all their problems, haven't they? Now all they have
to do is find an enemy in their own country and gyp their own people. But
I have a simple question. How much grain has been harvested and how much
has been supplied to the national reserve? You get the statistics and you
will see that the crop yield and gross intake figures are being overstated,
so as to show the people that our harvest rates and crop yields are higher.
And the granaries are empty! Last year we harvested about 5 million tons.
Not much, of course, but I don't think that there will be a million tons
this year. And we'll see how much they overstated the gross intake just
to say don't worry, people, everything will be fine. Nothing could be farther
from the truth and I think that the reality will dawn on everybody not
later than September. And we will say as much.»

Incidentally, the executives attach primary importance
to finding a way to get over the gasoline crisis and also capitalize on
it in their struggle with political adversaries. The fact remains that
the executive branch is a heterogeneous entity and the President's entourage
a self- devouring organism. Each campaign headquarter is like the proverbial
Spanish court with its continuous intrigues and dog- eat-dog laws, supplying
upstairs with mutually exclusive projects. One of our sources claims that
some of them propose to «affiliate» Chubais to Marchuk and make a big thing
of Marchuk's having befriended Medvedchuk and Surkis during the parliamentary
elections, now that the two are to blame for the fuel crisis because their
boosting gasoline prices resulted in the rush at the filling stations.
It is anyone's guess why, lashing out at Marchuk, people on the same side
damage one another. Too bad no one on Bankova St. has let it slip that
there was a laden oil tanker riding anchor opposite Gurzuf in the heat
of the fuel crisis while Franchuk Jr. dashed between it and the coast (i.e.,
filling stations) on board an Artek speedboat as the question of whether
or not to unload was being debated. Using the President's vocabulary, lying
tongues have it that the business- minded People's Deputy Franchuk's maneuvers
were caused by the need to keep the gasoline prices up at the top. Well,
if it is really so we will soon hear about it, for the executives are looking
for guilty parties, aren't they?

Be it as it may, the big question remains. What the hell
are all of Leonid Kuchma's campaign-coordinating centers doing, along with
two hundred Russian recruits, if one can call the President's bluff almost
as soon as he utters a few words of yet another statement? Or maybe it
serves his image to hurl truckloads of dirt at the opponents while beating
one's chest swearing «the elections will be fair as of this day» (and what
about before this day?)? Thick or thinning hair does not make a real «
muzhik » (i.e., man — Ed .). Oleksandr Tkachenko, for example,
says, «I have always considered myself a muzhik . As for those that
don't and say that others are, well, it's their problem. M uzhik is
a very powerful notion.» He is right. And using «so-called» referring to
duly registered presidential candidates, such as the ex-Premier, ex- Speaker,
and Speaker, is offensive, explained by one's own political impotence.
Mr. Tkachenko points out, forbearingly but with feeling, «That's what I
call a limited vocabulary. Maybe not invective, but it sounds like criminal
slang to me.»

By and large, Ukraine seems an extremely comic country,
a so-called polity. Even the SBU Security Service of Ukraine is not a formidable
secret police but a bunch of jokesters. Their latest joke was a very good
one: SBU chief Derkach sent a memorandum on the loyalty of Mykolayiv's
media to Presidential Aide Lytvyn «to detect leaks». A foreign diplomatic
officer I know (I will not identify him, of course) commented on this:
«Your special service made a very bold decision risking the country's prestige
as a democratic state just to determine that service's shortcomings. However,
I don't think that its people are that stupid. It is just that your regime
is not democratic; the SBU obeyed orders from upstairs and ended up looking
foolish.»

Well, I could have told him that we do not have a regime,
we just have one muzhik at the very top.

P.S. : Simferopol. After handing in this article
I boarded a flight to the Crimea and found myself in company with the President's
Press Secretary Oleksandr Martynenko. There was also an unpleasant character
hanging around, openly taking pictures of the two of us. Therefore, I want
it on record — for all the inquisitive-minded — that the two of us only
discussed sex .

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