How would you interpret the fact that the Rise Up, Ukraine! campaign was not revived on November 7?

Andriy YERMOLAYEV, Director, Sophia Center for Social Research:

“I would single out two aspects in this situation. The first is purely ideological. From the angle of plans and interests, the Four would naturally find it unacceptable to fall under any kind of historical stereotypes, the more so the stereotypes that might put new trumps in the hands of government. This could immediately raise a host of clichО accusations which would damage the reputation of the non-Left opposition wing.

“The second aspect may be even more important, although it lies offscreen. In my view, the opposition is going to seriously modify its tactics. The resource of street actions they began to unfold in September is gradually wearing off. They have in general now achieved their goal: everybody has seen some social disturbances and discontent; the cameras filmed everything; and journalists wrote everything. As new mechanisms come into play outside Ukraine, the opposition now faces a new and more difficult problem of synchronizing its political actions with this mechanism. Campaigns and bullhorns are not enough here. I think the opposition is going to display some new, more coordinated, forms of behavior in the parliament. Secondly, I think we must expect the opposition, especially the part grouped around Our Ukraine, to unfold very intense activity on the international arena. Undoubtedly, there could be a very active presence of the opposition in the legal mass media. In other words, the opposition will demonstrate a new set of struggle methods.”

Viktoriya PIDHORNA, Center of Social and Political Programming:

“As to what caused the opposition to refrain from mass actions on November 7, everything is quite clear. The point is that they joined forces on an entirely different basis, ignoring the ideological differences that objectively exist between them. Naturally, they cannot take to the streets together because November 7 is a tribute to the past, it implies different assessments of this past. But even if the Four do so, their rivals will quite logically blame them for advocating the Soviet past.

“On the other hand, this refusal shows something very interesting, the end of the opposition’s post-Soviet format. The point is that the division along the communism-democracy lines is becoming outdated and simplistic, and there is a hope that the opposition will take shape according to an entirely different criterion. This would be an opposition of a different type, oriented toward ongoing societal changes, i.e., to its voters. Why did Symonenko not take advantage of events that could serve KPU interests and did not insist on the actions of other opposition movement participants? First of all because it is the KPU and Symonenko who, as the latest polls show, this campaign catapulted to top popularity. This means his popularity rose owing to the protest, not leftist electorate. The protest electorate is formed by an entirely different criterion. The votes of this protest electorate are very important for the Communists and their future. The point is that the leftist electorate is mostly represented by old-age pensioners, while the Communists do not want to quit the political arena together with their dying electorate.

“The Rise Up, Ukraine campaign is most likely to continue in the parliament. The more so that constitutional reform is the order of the day.”

Viktor RYBACHENKO, Vice President, Association of Political Psychologists of Ukraine:

“I think there are several reasons why the opposition forces reneged on their promise to take protest actions. First, the public protest potential is at a rather low level. This means there is a gap between the large number of negative assessments of the current situation and the weak active component of these assessments. As a result, discontented people go nowhere and support nobody.

“There also is another aspect related to the oncoming premier race. With this in view, the Communists perhaps do not want to get distracted from active negotiations about the prime minister’s candidature. If a compromise candidate, for example, Viktor Yanukovych (who is known to be on good terms with the Communists), goes through, the Communists will throw all their weight to discuss a lucrative deal: support for Yanukovych in exchange for executive offices in, say, Donetsk oblast or even the central government.

“In my opinion, these are the two key points. Besides, the absence of unity inside the opposition can also be a crucial factor. For example, if the Communists and Socialists could have drawn people out onto the streets on November 7, Our Ukraine and BYuT would have failed to do so. This could result in feeble actions.

“What are the common people to do in this case? I think we can only wish them not to be pawns in someone else’s game. If they have fervor and desire to change anything, let them look for effective forms. In my view, street-rallies are ineffective.”

Oleksandr VYSHNIAK, Director, Ukrainian Sociology Service:

“That the opposition failed to take the promised actions was caused by two factors. First, any campaign is soon followed by fatigue (as in 1991, 1993, and 2001) and, hence, ineffectiveness. So there is no sense to holding a campaign, for the number of participants is always declining.

“In spite of this, all today’s opposition forces count on pressure from the West and are most likely to modify their tactics taking into account this pressure and its consequences. This particularly applies to the Communists. Their position is very interesting: while they have always opposed any Western pressure, they seem to have taken on a wait-and-see approach this time. If things go in favor of the Communists, this could touch off a new protest wave.

“It is quite probable that the Communists are advancing their own demands about the future premier.

“Whether the mass protest actions will continue will depend on events, including those in foreign policy, of the current month. If Ukraine emerges from these events without too many losses, the opposition campaign will grind to a halt. What is more, even now the Communists and especially the Socialists agree to put off the issue of early presidential elections and to cooperate with the pro-presidential factions in the question of altering the political system. As to whether Our Ukraine will participate in these reforms, it will remain, as always, somewhere to the side.”