Leonid KRAVCHUK, “A coalition government at this stage is fantasy”
“Will the parliament be able to carry out constructive political reform, especially in such things as formation of a politically responsible government, revision of the Presidential Administration’s functions, and adoption of legal rules to form the majority and the opposition?”
“I think this will be very difficult because, among other things, parliament has received diametrically opposed political forces, for example, Our Ukraine and the Communist Party. They maintain absolutely different views on the political situation, economic prospects, reforms as such, and foreign policy. All that can unite them (some of them, to be precise) is struggle against the current Ukrainian leadership. Experience shows this can bring together the Right and the Left as the situation might dictate. Even now some individuals demand revising the Constitution to transform Ukraine from a presidential-parliamentary into a parliamentary-presidential republic and to start impeachment proceedings. This shows that political and administrative, rather than economic or legal, processes will be in the foreground in the immediate future. I think this could drastically aggravate the political situation in the parliament. It will be difficult to form a constructive majority under such conditions, the more so that a majority can so far be formed on the basis of not the Constitution and the law but the understanding that Ukrainian reforms must be carried out and problems should be solved to improve this country’s economic, political, and intellectual situation. But different political forces can have different perceptions and understanding. Thus to form a stable majority, the parliament should make amendments to the Constitution and pass a law on the majority and opposition.
“As to whether the government will be formed by the majority, it is written in the Constitution that our government is to be formed by the president personally. Parliament only will or will not approve the appointment of a prime minister. So the majority can bear no Constitutional or legal responsibility for the formation of a government until the relevant laws are passed. This is why the majority today plays an advisory role. In other words, factions will meet the president and offer proposals which the president can then accept or reject. A coalition government at this stage of this country’s political development is fantasy. Nothing in the world can be formed on the basis of awareness and responsibility. Any serious power can only be based only on Constitutional provisions and the relevant laws.”
“Are the United Social Democrats going to propose laws on the majority and opposition and to favor amending the Constitution?”
“We will not initiate such moves, for this is not a vital question for us now. Western Europe’s social democratic formula of power provides that the majority forms the government and bears responsibility, together with the whole parliament, for the state of affairs and fulfillment of programs. We support this path of development in this country. But it is still a moot point whether this kind of transformation is necessary just now. There are other grave political and social problems that need to be solved urgently. What prevents us from passing, without revising the Constitution, laws that would work for Ukraine? Nothing. What keeps Verkhovna Rada from passing the Tax Code after eight years of endless postponements? But when it comes to forming the majority and the government, we will take a constructive stand as determined by our program.”
“Should the majority be formed on the basis of expediency, what points will certain groups of political forces rally around? Which political parties and blocs do you think can lay the groundwork for such a majority?”
“Today’s situation is that, if the Tymoshenko and Moroz blocs join forces in parliament, they will account for about 35% of the deputies. If they are supported by the Yushchenko bloc on some points concerning the present authorities, they will have over half the parliamentary votes. They would thus be able to make a deal and solve the question of parliamentary leadership (speaker, deputy speakers, committees) in their favor, initiate a change in government or propose a premier and a cabinet of their own choice. If For a United Ukraine gets, for instance, 130 seats and is supported by the SDPU(o), such a coalition will have 150 deputies at most. What complicates the situation is that we do not yet know about the district results: much will depend on who they will support and join. Whatever the case, there is no force today that could say it has got a majority in parliament and can assume responsibility for forming a government. There will be fierce fighting, and much will depend on who will join who. If Our Ukraine joins forces with the Communists to form the governing bodies, nobody would be able to oppose them.
“As to cooperation between For a United Ukraine and the Communists, I cannot imagine how such diametrically opposed political forces could cooperate.”
“Would you comment on Viktor Yushchenko’s statement that Our Ukraine will cooperate in parliament with all political forces but the SDPU(o)?”
“In my opinion, Mr. Yushchenko did this against the backdrop of euphoria over his bloc’s victory. I think when the bloc comes to parliament, it will display some calmer and saner deputies who will decide whether or not to vote, guided by the interests of Ukraine rather than their leader’s ambitions. For example, I do not think that Roman Bezsmertny shares Mr. Yushchenko’s attitude. I do not want anybody to support or cooperate with us openly: we seek nobody’s favor and are going to work in parliament for Ukraine, but for our or a united one. We will vote for laws that allow Ukraine to develop normally and democratically. And it makes no difference for us how Yushchenko and his team will vote, for they are responsible not to us but to the Ukrainian people.”
“How could you explain the somewhat unexpected results of the Yuliya Tymoshenko bloc and Oleksandr Moroz’s Socialist Party?”
“There are two ways today to win an easy victory. One, nostalgia, is being used by the Communists. The other is struggle against the authorities. The authorities cannot enjoy popularity among a people 80% of which live poorly or very poorly. And, in general, nobody in the world loves those in power. If people lived better today, there would be an entirely different situation, and it would be very difficult to be elected to parliament by simply criticizing the authorities.
“The SDPU(o) does not criticize those in power, nor does it speculate on the past. We offer the state a concrete path of development. And our standpoint can only be shared by people who read, follow, and know how to compare and analyze things. We have improved our election result by one and a half times in the past four years. In other words, we already have a stable societal electorate. The latter is going to grow, perhaps not so fast as we would like it to, but it is very difficult for a country in transition from one system of life to another to immediately lean toward the Social Democrats who are not an extremist party. Attending the elections in Western Ukraine, I heard people say, eyes glaring, that when Yushchenko comes, he will make power transparent, fair, and run the oligarchs off. But, although parliament is legislative power, people believe him because he promised this. When we, Social Democrats, say, for example, that the language policy should be pursued in compliance with the Constitution and the law, Our Ukraine simply says: down with the Russian language! As a serious party, we cannot and will never allow any pie-in-the-sky slogans that could lead to splitting Ukraine. Can I as first president of this country allow myself to say such nonsense without thinking about the consequences?”
“How long do you think blocs will exists in parliament? What is your vision of their future?”
“I think the For a United Ukraine bloc will try, as it promised, to turn into a party. I do not think the Our Ukraine bloc will hold together for a long time: they will either form a Right party or break up. The former scenario would trigger a host of questions from the forces that are Social Democratic rather than Right. It seems to me that if the blocs choose to turn into parties, they will find it the most difficult to identify their ideology. The Yuliya Tymoshenko bloc is also likely to try to form a party, but it is difficult for me to say exactly what kind of party because I see no ideology there in the traditional sense of the word.”
