Presidential Race: Starting Line Predictions

Leonid Kuchma's presidency, regardless of whether or not reelected, is one of the most ignominious, humiliating pages in Ukrainian history. His is the tragic fate of a person once quite ordinary then suddenly placed at the head of one of Europe's youngest states, who has never come close to understanding the problems facing his country at this trying time. His helplessness resulted in Ukraine being ruled by a handful of "close associates" skillfully manipulating the President's vainglory and touchiness, stuffing their pockets while ruining the economy, creating oligarchic structures as parasites on the economy and state budget.

Leonid Kuchma is a case study in laying waste one's own individuality. He not only failed to resist his entourage's devastating influence but became part of it, a catalyst. Those rubbing shoulders with him understand that they can win this campaign only by means of provocation, falsification, complete elimination of the democratic media, and severe administrative pressure. Now that the President has consciously split the Right camp he has every reason to consider the centrist leaders, Left centrist Oleksandr Moroz and Right centrist Yevhen Marchuk, his most formidable 1999 opponents. It is against them that the whole pressure of cynical provocation is spearheaded. Here the main task is to prevent the two from registering as presidential candidates come what may. Even before the campaign officially started the Presidential Administration planned a monthly release of 150,000-200,000 provocative leaflets, supposedly originating from the Communist and Socialist parties. Graphic evidence is found in the so-called statement of V. D. Mishura, editor-in-chief of the newspaper Komunist, disseminated as a leaflet in many administrative regions of Ukraine, in which Oleksandr Moroz is accused of contacts with Pavlo Lazarenko, which is sheer falsehood. The purpose is to cast aspersions as well as to sic the Communists on the Socialists and vice versa. Similar provocations are in store for Yevhen Marchuk. Word has it that another action is being prepared while collecting signatures, aimed toward the same end: preventing rivals registering at all costs. Subscription lists for over 300,000 signatures are said to have been printed. These will allegedly be submitted to the Central Election Committee with fake signatures. How? We already saw in Kyiv on May 30 when anonymous canvassers collected signatures for seven presidential candidates at one time to conceal their actual purpose, being paid 60 hryvnias per list.

As for the Central Election Committee it showed its loyalty to Leonid Kuchma during the parliamentary elections.

There is, however, an interesting aspect to the whole arrangement. The impression is that the President's courtiers include people consciously lending the situation a touch of absurdity. Why? Just in case their boss loses the race they will say that his defeat was their doing.

It is generally known that the President's team prudently works also for Oleksandr Tkachenko. Scared stiff of the real opponents, they even embarked on a dangerous game with Natalia Vitrenko. The latter, however, has long been playing her own separate game, skillfully capitalizing on others' mistakes, namely the President's confidence in Vitrenko being constantly under control. In reality, she just waited to be registered, because without an actual developed institutional network PSPU is unable to collect the required number of signatures. And so Mr. Kuchma's structure are meant to secure collection in favor of this crack revolutionary firebrand. And she has on more than one occasion let slip her attitude to Leonid Kuchma as a perfectly clueless politician, which is also evidence of the woman's painful awareness of her own role as figurehead, agent provocateur, assigned her by a person she wholeheartedly scorns. Thus once Comrade Vitrenko is registered she will forget all about any arrangements with the President. Just as she will not allow Leonid Kuchma to leave Ukraine in the unlikely event of her victory; there will be no repeating the situation with Pavlo Lazarenko simply because her demagoguery and inability to cope with the socioeconomic situation would force her to resort to excessive measures. History shows that politicians reduced to Comrade Vitrenko's humiliating role, in case they won, made a special point of doing away with their former bosses.

Oleksandr Tkachenko's joining the presidential race took no one by surprise. Somehow during the Speaker saga Verkhovna Rada caught up with the Cabinet and President's entourage in terms of corruption. His total engrossment with power and touchingly genuine confidence in own singularity and the right to teach one and all have noticeably degraded legislative endeavors, proving Tkachenko's inability to defend his own realm, as evidenced by cutting off television and radio transmission from the parliamentary audience.

Leonid Kuchma must have initiated the President-Speaker arrangement about Tkachenko stepping into the race. However, the President's expectations that the Speaker will act in accordance with Mr. Kuchma's scenario are totally groundless, because the Speaker accepted his proposal not in order to thank him for support during the parliamentary elections. Mr. Kuchma's "initiative" coincided with the Speaker's ill-concealed presidential ambitions, and Mr. Tkachenko will continue playing his own game and go all the way in the race. The more so that most of Leonid Kuchma's men play into the Speaker's hands, considering (not without reason) the incumbent President a pawn in their game.

The local oligarchs, having bargained their immunity with the Speaker if and when he becomes President (at least) and a possibility to continue parasitize on the economy (at most), being aware of their current boss's slim reelection chances, may well prevail upon the President to appoint the Speaker his successor.

Tkachenko's nomination will trigger off a real struggle for votes between him and Leonid Kuchma, votes received by pulling administrative levers. This, in turn, will complicate the Presidential Administration's falsification of electoral procedures. Actually, the President will be denied the possibility to collect the required number of votes to keep up the race. Another no less important factor is that Tkachenko's participation in the campaign will cause a tangible outflow from the President's campaign war chest, thus further weakening his position.

Communist leader Petro Symonenko will have no problems collecting signatures, yet getting through to the second round looks highly questionable, but it could become a reality, given the President's "assistance" in falsifying turnouts, so Comrade Symonenko and Mr. Kuchma may end up in the second round together. However, the President's scenario could falter precisely here. His entourage is overplaying so much as to make one seriously consider the likelihood of all antidemocratic forces uniting before the second round to back Symonenko just to spite Kuchma. This would be a conscious move, because Comrade Symonenko as President would have either to eliminate the presidency or assume full responsibility, together with the Communist Party (one ought to remember that the Reds will also be considered responsible for Leonid Kuchma's victory if the administrative scenario is played out successfully).

The Right centrist camp has of late been led by Yevhen Marchuk. Considering his socially oriented programs, this candidate is a force to reckon with, even though the Right wing is in a tight spot as a direct result of the presidentially-inspired action aimed at destroying this formidable and independent factor. Purposefully breaking up the Right and Right Center is an irrefutable evidence of the fact that Leonid Kuchma has never held either the Right or Right Center doctrines. Instead, he initiated and became the leader of "bandit capitalism," which is generally outside politics and does not belong to any political spectrum. In this sense Yevhen Marchuk undertook an extremely important historical mission: uniting the split patriotic forces, breathing new life into the Kuchma-ruined idea of a genuine national polity.

Left centrist leader Oleksandr Moroz, another target of the Kuchma team's attack with falsehood and provocations. They despise him for several reasons ranging from personal dislike to the rejection of his politically consistent stand, unlike the incumbent. Many regard Mr. Kuchma's attitude toward him quite irrational, yet typical of a President who in most cases proves incapable of holding his emotions in check.

Summing it all up, it is possible to assume that none of the candidates is likely to act in keeping with any arrangements with Leonid Kuchma, at least not in the primary. Each will play his/her own game. After Vitrenko and Tkachenko register, the current President will lose control of the campaign, finding himself at war with one and all. The Cabinet's inevitable fall will cast the shadow of a doubt even on Leonid Kuchma making it into the second round.

To make this a reality, all anti-Kuchma, anti-racket forces must unite and monitor the election turnouts to prevent falsification. The residents of Kyiv proved that this is possible during the municipal elections of May 30.