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Where there is no law, but every man does what is right in his own eyes, there is the least of real liberty
Henry M. Robert

Presidential Race: Starting Line Predictions

13 November, 2012 - 00:00

By Ihor KVIATKOVSKY, People's Deputy of Ukraine
Any forecasts about the candidates' first steps if and when elected President
would be far-fetched without analyzing their campaign programs. This is
true of all contenders but one, the incumbent, whose program no one is
likely to believe anyway.

Leonid Kuchma's presidency, regardless of whether or not reelected,
is one of the most ignominious, humiliating pages in Ukrainian history.
His is the tragic fate of a person once quite ordinary then suddenly placed
at the head of one of Europe's youngest states, who has never come close
to understanding the problems facing his country at this trying time. His
helplessness resulted in Ukraine being ruled by a handful of "close associates"
skillfully manipulating the President's vainglory and touchiness, stuffing
their pockets while ruining the economy, creating oligarchic structures
as parasites on the economy and state budget.

Leonid Kuchma is a case study in laying waste one's own individuality.
He not only failed to resist his entourage's devastating influence but
became part of it, a catalyst. Those rubbing shoulders with him understand
that they can win this campaign only by means of provocation, falsification,
complete elimination of the democratic media, and severe administrative
pressure. Now that the President has consciously split the Right camp he
has every reason to consider the centrist leaders, Left centrist Oleksandr
Moroz and Right centrist Yevhen Marchuk, his most formidable 1999 opponents.
It is against them that the whole pressure of cynical provocation is spearheaded.
Here the main task is to prevent the two from registering as presidential
candidates come what may. Even before the campaign officially started the
Presidential Administration planned a monthly release of 150,000-200,000
provocative leaflets, supposedly originating from the Communist and Socialist
parties. Graphic evidence is found in the so-called statement of V. D.
Mishura, editor-in-chief of the newspaper Komunist, disseminated
as a leaflet in many administrative regions of Ukraine, in which Oleksandr
Moroz is accused of contacts with Pavlo Lazarenko, which is sheer falsehood.
The purpose is to cast aspersions as well as to sic the Communists on the
Socialists and vice versa. Similar provocations are in store for Yevhen
Marchuk. Word has it that another action is being prepared while collecting
signatures, aimed toward the same end: preventing rivals registering at
all costs. Subscription lists for over 300,000 signatures are said to have
been printed. These will allegedly be submitted to the Central Election
Committee with fake signatures. How? We already saw in Kyiv on May 30 when
anonymous canvassers collected signatures for seven presidential candidates
at one time to conceal their actual purpose, being paid 60 hryvnias per
list.

As for the Central Election Committee it showed its loyalty to Leonid
Kuchma during the parliamentary elections.

There is, however, an interesting aspect to the whole arrangement. The
impression is that the President's courtiers include people consciously
lending the situation a touch of absurdity. Why? Just in case their boss
loses the race they will say that his defeat was their doing.

It is generally known that the President's team prudently works also
for Oleksandr Tkachenko. Scared stiff of the real opponents, they even
embarked on a dangerous game with Natalia Vitrenko. The latter, however,
has long been playing her own separate game, skillfully capitalizing on
others' mistakes, namely the President's confidence in Vitrenko being constantly
under control. In reality, she just waited to be registered, because without
an actual developed institutional network PSPU is unable to collect the
required number of signatures. And so Mr. Kuchma's structure are meant
to secure collection in favor of this crack revolutionary firebrand. And
she has on more than one occasion let slip her attitude to Leonid Kuchma
as a perfectly clueless politician, which is also evidence of the woman's
painful awareness of her own role as figurehead, agent provocateur,
assigned her by a person she wholeheartedly scorns. Thus once Comrade Vitrenko
is registered she will forget all about any arrangements with the President.
Just as she will not allow Leonid Kuchma to leave Ukraine in the unlikely
event of her victory; there will be no repeating the situation with Pavlo
Lazarenko simply because her demagoguery and inability to cope with the
socioeconomic situation would force her to resort to excessive measures.
History shows that politicians reduced to Comrade Vitrenko's humiliating
role, in case they won, made a special point of doing away with their former
bosses.

Oleksandr Tkachenko's joining the presidential race took no one by surprise.
Somehow during the Speaker saga Verkhovna Rada caught up with the Cabinet
and President's entourage in terms of corruption. His total engrossment
with power and touchingly genuine confidence in own singularity and the
right to teach one and all have noticeably degraded legislative endeavors,
proving Tkachenko's inability to defend his own realm, as evidenced by
cutting off television and radio transmission from the parliamentary audience.

Leonid Kuchma must have initiated the President-Speaker arrangement
about Tkachenko stepping into the race. However, the President's expectations
that the Speaker will act in accordance with Mr. Kuchma's scenario are
totally groundless, because the Speaker accepted his proposal not in order
to thank him for support during the parliamentary elections. Mr. Kuchma's
"initiative" coincided with the Speaker's ill-concealed presidential ambitions,
and Mr. Tkachenko will continue playing his own game and go all the way
in the race. The more so that most of Leonid Kuchma's men play into the
Speaker's hands, considering (not without reason) the incumbent President
a pawn in their game.

The local oligarchs, having bargained their immunity with the Speaker
if and when he becomes President (at least) and a possibility to continue
parasitize on the economy (at most), being aware of their current boss's
slim reelection chances, may well prevail upon the President to appoint
the Speaker his successor.

Tkachenko's nomination will trigger off a real struggle for votes between
him and Leonid Kuchma, votes received by pulling administrative levers.
This, in turn, will complicate the Presidential Administration's falsification
of electoral procedures. Actually, the President will be denied the possibility
to collect the required number of votes to keep up the race. Another no
less important factor is that Tkachenko's participation in the campaign
will cause a tangible outflow from the President's campaign war chest,
thus further weakening his position.

Communist leader Petro Symonenko will have no problems collecting signatures,
yet getting through to the second round looks highly questionable, but
it could become a reality, given the President's "assistance" in falsifying
turnouts, so Comrade Symonenko and Mr. Kuchma may end up in the second
round together. However, the President's scenario could falter precisely
here. His entourage is overplaying so much as to make one seriously consider
the likelihood of all antidemocratic forces uniting before the second round
to back Symonenko just to spite Kuchma. This would be a conscious move,
because Comrade Symonenko as President would have either to eliminate the
presidency or assume full responsibility, together with the Communist Party
(one ought to remember that the Reds will also be considered responsible
for Leonid Kuchma's victory if the administrative scenario is played out
successfully).

The Right centrist camp has of late been led by Yevhen Marchuk. Considering
his socially oriented programs, this candidate is a force to reckon with,
even though the Right wing is in a tight spot as a direct result of the
presidentially-inspired action aimed at destroying this formidable and
independent factor. Purposefully breaking up the Right and Right Center
is an irrefutable evidence of the fact that Leonid Kuchma has never held
either the Right or Right Center doctrines. Instead, he initiated and became
the leader of "bandit capitalism," which is generally outside politics
and does not belong to any political spectrum. In this sense Yevhen Marchuk
undertook an extremely important historical mission: uniting the split
patriotic forces, breathing new life into the Kuchma-ruined idea of a genuine
national polity.

Left centrist leader Oleksandr Moroz, another target of the Kuchma team's
attack with falsehood and provocations. They despise him for several reasons
ranging from personal dislike to the rejection of his politically consistent
stand, unlike the incumbent. Many regard Mr. Kuchma's attitude toward him
quite irrational, yet typical of a President who in most cases proves incapable
of holding his emotions in check.

Summing it all up, it is possible to assume that none of the candidates
is likely to act in keeping with any arrangements with Leonid Kuchma, at
least not in the primary. Each will play his/her own game. After Vitrenko
and Tkachenko register, the current President will lose control of the
campaign, finding himself at war with one and all. The Cabinet's inevitable
fall will cast the shadow of a doubt even on Leonid Kuchma making it into
the second round.

To make this a reality, all anti-Kuchma, anti-racket forces must unite
and monitor the election turnouts to prevent falsification. The residents
of Kyiv proved that this is possible during the municipal elections of
May 30.

 

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